msty thread - YieldMax etf product

wxytrader · Aug 3, 2025

NoahA said:
Absolutely, but if the dividends are less than the loss in value of the share price, its a net negative.

I think I remember dest explaining here, or I read it somewhere else, that with the MSTY products, all you are getting back when you get your dividend is a share of the initial money that went into the fund. Its not so much trading income that they are giving you, its your own money being returned. So eventually, there is no money left.

I haven't looked into any of this, and I also realize that in order for MSTY to do well, MSTR stock needs more volatility than it has right now, but I just wanted to throw it out there. These products need to be well understood before you jump in.

For the STRC product, from what I remember reading, that will be pegged to mostly a $100 price if I recall, they have ways to get it back to this number if it deviates, so this might be a better product for income generation.
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jbusse said:
Right. In this instance, cumulative divs are greater than the overall drop in NAV, as the total return (change in NAV + divs) is positive (around 13-14% as of 7/31) according to their website.

https://www.yieldmaxetfs.com/our-etfs/ulty/
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I believe that is with full DRIP? Anyway I have a spreadsheet that uses raw data.

Since inception:

ULTY

Start date 1-Mar-2024 3-Aug-2025
Price 20.00
Investment $100,000
Shares 5,000
Unrealized gains/loss -$69,950.00
Dividends received $68,064.00
Yield 68.06%
NAV $98,114
Monthly income $2,001.88

YMAX

Start date 1-Mar-2024 3-Aug-2025
Price 21.67
Investment $100,000
Shares 4,615
Unrealized gains/loss -$39,363.17
Dividends received $54,918.32
Yield 54.92%
NAV $115,555
Monthly income $1,056.12

2025

ULTY

Start date 2-Jan-2025 3-Aug-2025
Price 9.04
Investment $100,000
Shares 11,062
Unrealized gains/loss -$33,517.70
Dividends received $39,753.32
Yield 39.75%
NAV $106,236
Monthly income $1,656.39

YMAX

Start date 2-Jan-2025 3-Aug-2025
Price 17.04
Investment $100,000
Shares 5,869
Unrealized gains/loss -$22,887.32
Dividends received $29,009.98
Yield 29.01%
NAV $106,123
Monthly income $935.81

Mar1--->today

ULTY

Start date 3-Mar-2025 3-Aug-2025
Price 7.38
Investment $100,000
Shares 13,550
Unrealized gains/loss -$18,563.69
Dividends received $33,676.15
Yield 33.68%
NAV $115,112
Monthly income $1,530.73

YMAX

Start date 3-Mar-2025 3-Aug-2025
Price 14.61
Investment $100,000
Shares 6,845
Unrealized gains/loss -$10,061.60
Dividends received $24,160.16
Yield 24.16%
NAV $114,099
Monthly income $1,098.19

@johnarb

demoncore · Aug 3, 2025

NoahA said:
Excellent reply. Thank-you very much. I understand it all very well. For the record, I don't own any of these products.

For me personally, I'm simply buying IBIT and scaling in as it drops, and when it pops and I can get $100 profit, I take it! Then I hope it drops again and scale back in.

The idea is that even if it keeps dropping, I'm happy to hold it with no loss since its not like the leveraged BITX. So I'm not scared of BTC dropping to $100k or lower. The worst case scenario is that this trading account just turns into a long term hold like most of my bitcoin exposure, and then there are no funds left to trade with until the position recovers. I am always put more money into the trading account and keep lowering the average price.

On the flip side, if after my exit it keeps going up and I can't get back in lower, then oh well, I miss out on potential profits. But so far, Bitcoin just grinds higher, so to me, it makes sense to try and capture some of this sideways action.
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What's the point if scalping for $100 in spot? You could choose any high RV-trade-able. As a trade it doesn't matter as you've capped upside at $100 or whatever.

I would think that you're better off simply DCA'ing lower and selling say half on a bounce. Net-net you're always increasing your exposure. Why are you trading taxable?

wxytrader · Aug 3, 2025

johnarb said:
(21k shares is over $100k of annual income, taxed as income
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Look on the yieldmax site...ROC is not taxed as income.

P.S. there is a MARA etf??????

wxytrader · Aug 3, 2025

NoahA said:
Excellent reply. Thank-you very much. I understand it all very well. For the record, I don't own any of these products.

For me personally, I'm simply buying IBIT and scaling in as it drops, and when it pops and I can get $100 profit, I take it! Then I hope it drops again and scale back in.

The idea is that even if it keeps dropping, I'm happy to hold it with no loss since its not like the leveraged BITX. So I'm not scared of BTC dropping to $100k or lower. The worst case scenario is that this trading account just turns into a long term hold like most of my bitcoin exposure, and then there are no funds left to trade with until the position recovers. I am always put more money into the trading account and keep lowering the average price.

On the flip side, if after my exit it keeps going up and I can't get back in lower, then oh well, I miss out on potential profits. But so far, Bitcoin just grinds higher, so to me, it makes sense to try and capture some of this sideways action.
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Dead money. By the time bitcoin doubles you would make way more in dividends.

Step-by-step:

Initial shares:
$100,000 ÷ $19.80 = 5,050.51 shares

Monthly compounding rate (flat):
$1.24 ÷ $19.80 = 6.26% monthly growth in shares

After 60 months (5 years):
Shares = 5,050.51 × (1 + 0.0626)^60 ≈ 56,585 shares

Portfolio value:
56,585 shares × $19.80 ≈ $1,120,391

Result:

MSTY (DRIP): $1,120,391

IBIT (2× price): $200,000

Winner: MSTY outperforms IBIT by ~$920,000

demoncore · Aug 3, 2025

I'm not going to watch that fucking nerd.

ULTY has lost money (total return) from inception. It's dropped 14 and has paid out <11.

jbusse · Aug 3, 2025

ph1l said:
The chart with price adjusted for dividends (i.e., dividends reinvested) shows a different picture.
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/ULTY/interactive-chart
View attachment 371778
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I didn't know you could do that on barchart. Very useful. Thank you!

johnarb · Aug 3, 2025

demoncore said:
I'm not going to watch that fucking nerd.
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best reply on the thread thus far

wxytrader · Aug 3, 2025

demoncore said:
I'm not going to watch that fucking nerd.

ULTY has lost money (total return) from inception. It's dropped 14 and has paid out <11.
More...

Since inception:

ULTY

Start date 1-Mar-2024 3-Aug-2025
Price 20.00
Investment $100,000
Shares 5,000
Unrealized gains/loss -$69,950.00
Dividends received $68,064.00
Yield 68.06%
NAV $98,114
Monthly income $2,001.88

demoncore · Aug 3, 2025

I missed a couple line items. So the nerd stating that they are positive on total return is dead wrong.

lol to averaging the div payments from inception. They are currently paying a dime. <1.5% for an ETF going to zero.

wxytrader · Aug 3, 2025

demoncore said:
I missed a couple line items. So the nerd stating that they are positive on total return is dead wrong.

lol to averaging the div payments from inception. They are currently paying a dime. <1.5% for an ETF going to zero.
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Weekly...but yeah I chose YMAX. @johnarb likes ULTY