So it's paying 40 beeps monthly, non compounded. 100 beeps over Treasuries. It's dropped 70% when literally all of the components it tracks are up like 30-100%. You have to be r3tarded to buy this thing. It's going to zero. If you're lucky/unlucky it won't foster regulation.
Sorry.. not sure what RV is. But the point with scaling is simply to work on my mental game and execution practise. If I can take $100 profits regurarly on a 10-15k account, I want to scale that up and generate 1-2k per month. Then retiring in SE Asia is very possible. I don't mind the taxable portion because I have enough in a tax free account and also enough in cold storage. I just want to not work, so if I can generate 20-30k income per year from trading, but not be stuck in the high cost of living in Canada, all of a sudden, 30k income is considered low for tax purposes. Living in Canada, you only work to pay for food and housing. Its time to get out. I think I've done much better this past month with simply buying the dips and selling the pops, vs. just holding. Perhaps a massive up move will one day prove to kill my strategy since I will be underexposed on a fast move higher, but so far, I feel very good selling hundreds of dollars flowing into my account while bitcoin has just gone sideways. As you say though, selling half, so that there is always some exposure might be better overall, but only time can tell. I have been so happy many times this month to take my $100 profit and literally buy back every share lower.
My point is that all that you're looking for is mean reversion so what does it matter what asset as you're out on $100 uptick? Realized vol (RV). You can buy odd lots of high notional stocks and see far more opportunities than in IBIT. META has beat something like the last six Qs and you could have made $800 on 10 shares on the report inside an hour.
Point understood, but I want to own something I believe in. I realize the market might keep screaming higher, and stocks like NVDA or META might hold up very well, but there is also enough stuff that I watch which questions the future for NVDA once AI buying scales back for example. For Bitcoin, even if it dumps, the future is bright under most scenarios. If Bitcoin was ever to have an 80% correction, which I don't think will happen at this level of adoption, its my favourite to recover. Will TSLA ever recover after an 80% drop? Even META is highly suspicious to me. At some point, I think money dries up. All influencers will become irrelevant, and many videos on Youtube become AI generated. I have no idea how Facebook is still a thing bringing in so much money, but if it truly is advertising dollars, I'm sure they will scale back advertising when consumers are tapped out. Now of course buying an index will likely always recover, but I put more faith into Bitcoin. Since it easily has a 10x upside, which I don't think is the case for any stock, (unless we really hit hyperinflation), if we have a major drawdown, its only bitcoin that can recover. At least that is what I base my thinking on. So trading the thing that I'm mostly sure will always recover seems like the safest way to trade. So yes, I think we can have a major crash or major boom, but I also think Bitcoin will work in both scenarios. But individuals stocks, must less likely.
Put another way, if I've learned anything from you option guys, its all about accounting for risk. Every position you guys put on is offset with some other position. I don't feel I need to do this for purchases of IBIT. I either get my profits right away and reload, or wait to reload. Or it dumps lower and buy more. Or it dumps really hard and I just hold. But I don't need to worry about risk at all since its risk free for me... guaranteed to go up, for at least a few more months until some climax for this cycle, if the cycle theory still even hold anymore.
Some reality checks: If you're originally from SE Asia and accustomed to live local, $1-2k/month will get you by. Anything remotely tied to expat living (travel, restaurants, helper, etc ) and that's no longer enough. If you want 20-30k a year, start conservative: 500k/relatively safe investment/taxes should generate that amount. So your goal today should be to reach 500k in the bank. If you're already there, consider a managed investment versus your trading. What's your historical say, can you safely return 10-15% before tax, year in, year out? If the market crashes and takes 3 years to recover, can you handle it? Over the last 5 years my aggressive 401k has been more profitable than I have been despite my highly successful first year. I don't despair to outperform it over the next 5 years, if only to feel a sense of accomplishment. gl
Why are you unloading? Take your profits in 5 years or at the very least swing trade. Jumping in and out on every dip creating tax events is just stupid. It's all stupid when you consider that you're likely going to make 10x less in 5 years than if you just put it in dividends and compounded with DCA.
YieldMax managers made major changes i.e. owning the shares and switching to weeklies and changing the holdings as needed and since they made the changes ulty is up 36% in 4 months time according to the nerd's video with dividends included in the calculation it's a weekly won't be so bad to get out if it's not working out, no sunk cost , just get out if the share price is going down, but the stock has been steady on the $6 range 20k shares is >$100k/yr at 10c/wk dividend