Thanks a lot for the thoughtful reply – I really appreciate it! Also, thanks for the kind words and the valuable recommendations. I’ve come across the term Market Wizards before, but haven’t paid much attention to it yet – I’ll definitely take a closer look now. Same goes for Michael Covel and Charles Faulkner. Finding the right approach has been a bit of a struggle for me, mainly because I tend to chase the "perfect" system. But I guess I'll have to let that go. The idea of combining discretionary and systematic elements is new to me, but it really makes sense. I’ll definitely explore that further. So far, I’ve read some of Larry Williams’ work – very helpful for the basics – and dived a bit into Ernest Chan’s books. His quant-focused approach is interesting, but definitely tough to follow without a strong programming background. I’ll add Van Tharp’s book to my reading list – sounds like a solid read. Thanks again for all the insights – very helpful!
Hi @hausi, I usually just lurk in the background on this board, but your post was intriguing. It's impossible to recommend what you should do because, IMO, it depends on your knowledge level, analytical skills level, goals and a bunch of other things. However, I can describe what has worked for me. FWIW, I have 17+ years in the game including the last 4 years as a full time professional. Yes, the trading-verse is full of people wanting to get rich quick and so naturally there are a ton of scammers, influencers, "analysts" and trading "gurus" wanting to sell them false dreams. Yes and no. I learned the hard way that the most valuable skill a trader can develop is to read the market and assessing market conditions, i.e. develop the analytical skills to objectively forecast and assign probabilities to market movements. This is not the same thing as trying to find the "perfect" strategy. A trader that can accurately read the market can be profitable even with the garbage trading information on the internet. Most inexperienced traders never learn to read the market, so yes, the vast majority of trading information on the internet turns out to be garbage for them. Nope, scammers and charlatans will try to hide their losses and inability to trade. Successful traders' profits come from other traders' losses and they're not going to freely help their competition. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, a trader that can accurately read the market can be profitable with virtually any approach. The approach becomes more of a personal preference. Yes, this is true. Indicators were designed for technical analysis. Traders that misuse them as entry and exit signals will struggle to become long term profitable. Some do, some don't. I know several professional traders who don't. Also most financial institutions make their money from fees, their focus is to attract investor capital not to trade profitably. My approach is discretionary. I personally struggled for 11+ years (!!!) following the conventional advice of trying to find that perfect strategy with an "edge". Yes, 11+ years, I'm the most determined, hardheaded, stubborn SOB, you'll ever meet! After 11+ years, I decided that this was what I wanted to do for the rest of my life and was willing to do whatever it took. So I completely stopped trading for 1½ years and went down the rabbit of hole of trend & momentum analysis, intermarket analysis, macroeconomics, inner workings of the bond market as well as global banking and financial systems, how different asset classes react to underlying economic conditions and more. I was also lucky enough to find 4 mentors, 2 of them with 50+ years on Wall Street and the other 2 with 30+ years professional experience. The truth is that the market doesn't care about your strategy, indicators or emotions. You'll only make money when the market agrees with your position. Therefore it only makes sense in my head to understand what the market is doing and then to correctly position yourself in alignment (instead of blindly following some strategy). As a general guide, the professionals I listen to talk about markets, developing events and unfolding macroeconomic conditions. They rarely, if at all, talk about trading strategies, systems or indicators. Hope this helped. [Going back to lurking mode ]
I think you have to truly love the game of trading the same way gamers love Fallout, Call of Duty, or whatever the latest thing is. It has to have such a passionate hold on you that it becomes your Fallout or Call of Duty. This level of commitment is necessary because you will need to dedicate thousands of hours—literally—to studying charts and developing your own system. There is no profitable system being sold by gurus. You might refine a gem or pick up useful bits, but on their own, those systems are useless. If they actually worked, these gurus would spend their time ironing out weaknesses and scaling up leverage and position sizes. The amount of time and effort it takes these gurus to create a trading system, build a course, edit videos, grow a following, and constantly engage a community leaves no time to actually trade. But let’s say you found a diamond-in-the-rough guru who really had a working system. The market would eventually erase it once that edge was exploited by the guru and their followers to the point it became mainstream. True systems are created and guarded. You study charts and identify a pattern that works enough of the time to give you a consistent statistical edge. Below is a post I just wrote in another thread. I hope it helps you on your own journey. Good luck.
Good Morning MarkBrown, Exactly. I rarely hear or read day traders talk about getting losses back. I guess noone has drawdown, right?
momentum +breakout. Simple but it's working. I recommend setting aside 2-3k and trade micro, stick to small positions and get a feel for 1-2 markets just focus on not putting too much size on a trade. dont be bothered with how much you're gonna make or how long it'll take if you're new.
I'd advise finding a single asset/ instrument and sticking solely to that one. You drive your own car. You know it in and out. All it's quirks. How it handles under certain weather conditions. Same holds true in the market. There is no real advantage to trading multiple different instruments. Personally, I would look at ES futures if I were you. No pattern day trading rules. Highly liquid. Great volatility. You can go short or long. 23 hours a day roughly 6 days a week. You get to learn what reports and data send it into high volatility. To me stocks suck because you have to spend an hour a day hunting and screening to choose what stocks you think will offer action that day. With futures you just get on and trade.
Do you want to day trade ,swing trade. or position trade? It's like asking people if they think they are a good driver. That's the theory. But like Yogi said, "In thoery, theory and practice are the same. In practice the ain't." That and momo.
Most 'traders' are doing the same thing - glued to their screen in flight/fight mode using insane leverage playing whack a mole against the super computers - risking way to much to make way to little. About 95% of them burn & churn, many become trainers/educators/mentors. Learn all you can about what the crowd is doing & make sure you do the opposite.