Niederhoffer on Bitcoin's Asymmetrical-Bet

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by The_Krakenite, May 10, 2022.

  1. No, not Victor who lost his Matador fund. This is his brother Roy, who has done very well with hedge funds. The video is a bit old now, and was recorded during the bear-market of 2018 while ICOs were all going bust all around and BTC was in free-fall. He gives his reasons why Bitcoin is asymmetrical and even risk-adverse hedge funds still have no choice but to allocate proportions to BTC.

     
  2. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    I will watch it later. But what was true in 2018, probably not true anymore concerning cryptos.

    Also, as long as they just treat it as a quick profit gambling device, that is fine but if they invest in it for years thinking that this is the future, well, they are wrong.

    Did he say he had a position?

    Another thing is risk management. Putting 2-5% of AUM into crypto is different from betting all the bank on it. Now here is a list of crypto HFs:

    https://www.thebalance.com/best-cryptocurrency-hedge-funds-4582184

    We can come back in 6-10 months and see how they are doing...
     
    murray t turtle likes this.
  3. Nope... Tudor Jones, Soros, Druckenmiller, Dalio, etc. have bought up BTC and are HODLing long-term for the same asymmetric reasons. Even if there is a 90% chance it goes to zero, the asymmetry forces them to keep a portion of the funds in BTC.

    It's been a while, but IIRC Dalio has a special case where he is (or was) not permitted to own cryptos in his fund. However, he did apply for (and get) permission to trade derivative/synthetics of crypto for his fund.
     
  4. no one is forced to do anything

    especially stupid things
     
  5. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    Yeap. In 2018 after the meltdown BTC still went on a 20 times rally, from the 3K low. Those times are over, it is just a tech stock... If anyone expects even a 5 times return from these 30K levels... He is dreaming.

    So yes, what was true in 2018, is not true today.
     
  6. They WILL get a 5 return.... Divided by 5
     
  7. MrMuppet

    MrMuppet

    upload_2022-5-11_10-16-41.jpeg
     
    johnarb likes this.
  8. All crypto will get a 5 factor cut . No real intrinsic value /feel sorry for folks who think btc will still go to 100k
     
  9. MrMuppet

    MrMuppet

    are you short yet?
     
    johnarb likes this.
  10. Reminds me, that russian guy, Andre Jink (whatever). Used to be sure that BTC was going to hit 100K last year. He apologized for being wrong on his youtube channel early this year, then made the statement again how BTC will reach 100K this year.

    In any case, the fact that BTC is still showing massive buying support just under 30K is pretty damn impressive with the fears of collapsing stable-coin contagion and the brutal equities sell-off.

    In any case, I've completed unwinding my final ethereum short-PUTs off the table, but I'm still leaving my covered-calls out. I am not too worried of them being tested at the moment. :sneaky:

    But who knows, stranger things are known to have happened! If ETH spikes, I'm going to be forced to roll (again)...
     
    #10     May 11, 2022