Did the replay for the day but didn't trade. Been really under the weather and didn't want to force the focus. I did find something interesting. I don't know if this is just like DB says, if you draw enough lines price is bound to touch one of them, but at 60ish that price rejection was at the midpoint of what I had on the 15min chart. My apologies for not posting more in advance. Starting with tomorrow's replays all context and 1m charts will be posted.
No, you're correct. That was a MF big hinge that didn't reach its apex until just at the close, so it went nowhere, partly because price didn't exit before the hinge was complete and partly because trading dropped off so much. As for 3600, see boru's and kp's charts.
I see that type of rejection at levels like that quite often I just don't know how to turn it into a setup. A one point stop above the rejection I feel is too much price risk because realistically price may come back a bit. Then I think just entering within the rejection bar would be less price risk. I suppose if really interested the setup needs to be tested. Maybe in terms how often price comes back after the rejection? How often a one pt stop entry gets scratched? Where would the scratch happen? Maybe a scratch then re-entry? Etc etc. OR just take the first retracement after. I saw the hesitation at the high of the day after the rejection but didn't consider that an entry. The entry to me came a few minutes later however given how steep the stride was i was skeptical. Although I shouldn't be anything good or bad. Turns out all points (rejection, hesitation at the high, and what I consider the first retracement) all worked out just a matter of how much.
It isn't what I'd call a "set-up", and I don't recommend that anyone try it who hasn't spent a lot of time observing in real time. Static charts and backtesting aren't going to accomplish diddly. You have to see price move. You have to see traders reaching for a price and failing to get there. And you have to do it emotionlessly. If your emotions are fogging everything up, you can't assess the emotions of others, and that's necessary if these are going to be traded with the least possible risk. Until that level is reached, I suggest sticking with the rules and going for less information risk, even though doing so may mean more price risk. You would have been in at 96 or 95 anyway.
I agree with the static charts. To be honest I've looked at so many static charts I feel like it does more harm than good in a way. The time spent looking at static charts I'd rather do another replay. Ps I was talking about the rejection at 60 not 3600.
Goals for Saturday and Sunday are simple. Analyze context and trade the 1min for 6-10 replays. Replay function in Ninja right now is not connecting so hopefully I can connect soon preferably before the elite 8 starts. Starting with 05/01/2013. From there I will continue to trade following along with present day throughout the week and continue with replays over the weekend. Trading as mechanical as possible shooting to get about 40 days in by April 14th and have a solid set of rules developed by then. One rule I have already added is after two consecutive losses (one buy, one sell that fail...failure being breaks and retracements not SARs) stand aside until price exits the chop and then continue on with SLA.
Getting the ball rolling with some context. After 5/1 I will just post the context and 1min chart after I trade it to save some time and back and forth etc.
PS I am replaying a time frame where I was not watching the market nor trading etc etc. So while I know from looking at the current daily chart that we've been trending up for quite some time I do not know what happened on an intraday basis through the month of last May.
This is just a note that this is an exploratory/developmental process. Could care less about winners/losers etc etc. I've drawn in what goes on in my head for illustrative purposes. Entries are line break retracements, breaks from chop and retracements, swing breaks and retracements that allow for a fanned line to be created (as further continuation), pretty much taking all retracements up or down with the continued move. Again exploratory. 1. Further research regarding price exiting chop. How far must it go? Is taking a retracement that enters back into the chop zone acceptable? Better to take the first retrace that holds above or below chop extremes? 2. Exits. Using the break of a line as a warning, however having a particular price in my mind with which I will exit, instead of immediate line break and automatically hit the close button. 3. Utilization of 50% areas for entries, or exits, or for holding on to a trade, or D.) all of the above. Moving right along. 1 min chart w entries/exits (don't mind the clutter) and 60min for 5/2