Clearing my head As an observation update: What i've been trying to focus on is trying to detect the turning points in price with more proficiency. What i've been noticing is that certain "patterns" in the behavior of price repeat themselves, but the bars at times can sort of disguise them if you are really not focused on the price itself. There are certain types of shifts that lead to different results as in what is more of an all out reversal vs. a retracement. Step 1 was just understanding that these types of behaviors actually happen vs. watching a bar and Step 2 was realizing there are certain types of behavior that happen that lead to a certain type of result and trying to trust these shifts. Rejections come in many different "bar formations" but the key is a certain price was touched and then rejected as an example. I believe I am getting better at seeing these shifts and I think now I am going to add in more AMT and really focus on the behaviors at the prices depicted by AMT which would lead to more confirmation, trust, and opportunities to get into some nice moves. It's been a lot of fun watching the bouncing ball.
Great discovery, I am also looking for something alike, that is my "SAR" point, the place where I decide not just to scale out, but to close the whole thing and take the opposite direction, AMT has helped me understand that the extremes are the places where I should focus my attention to to exactly that. I am currently looking a 5 tick charts as Price reaches those levels, so far they dont look that different from a pause before a continuation if I can find out I will let you know.
Two things from today and yesterday. One is well I guess somewhat of an old adage that the trades that work, work right away. I've seen this numerous times now with the retracement entry. We get a push in one direction, then a retracement and the trades that work we get another push before the next retracement.(don't mind my lack of specificity). When i've observed the retracement, then a continuation that already starts hesitating, stopping, slowing down, even moving back toward the crest, or trough of the retracement maybe after a small 2 point move or so, those are the trades i've been finding a scratch then re-evalutaion necessary. Starting to get a sense or a feel based on the behavior whether or not the sucker is gonna go in my favor or not. Second is in regards to AMT and I feel the answer is going to be in depends on ones plan. Yesterday for example I did not catch that the area around 70 was the midpoint of the hourly down move from 2740 to about 2600. I was looking at 2680 being the midpoint btw 2720 and 2640. I suppose live and learn now I am more aware of this now. So far anytime I try to add in AMT and I am not 100% certain in what I'm seeing it distracts me. If one really develops a sensitivity and a great ability to read price movement and knows what he wants to see does it really matter so much at what price he sees it? Like with the SLA approach if you get what looks to be a textbook buy signal does one not take that in assumption the prices associated with the top of a trend channel may provide resistance. Again I am sure the answer will be it depends on ones plan. Thinking....
Judge the market by its own action. 70 may not have been the exact level, but look at what price does between 0745 and 0845 and where it does it. Price knows.
So according to my crazy marked up chart if we are around 2700 in the morning and we get a short op, one could take that op with more confidence? Also, if we do get that op to go short around 2700 what could/should one expect via AMT? A drop to 2660ish, 40, 00? If we break 2700 and continue up what's on your mind 2740 or 20 or you're aware of everything and trade based on the SLA from there? Like the 80pt call the other day how does one gain the confidence or the knowledge to see something like that ahead of time? I tend to see not so much different levels, but more levels in btw what you have seen if that makes sense. What you see and what I see is a difference of many many points (I like what you see better lol). I know it's not about what you do particularly and should not be copied blindly, but with these journals and threads being about behavior....you are a trader, you have a certain type of behavior (rather successful from what i've seen) I want to see what you see even if it means copycatting it until I myself get it. If that makes sense.
The overriding principle is mean reversion. And we've risen 100pts. So one would expect at least a reversion to the mean, if not a return to the lower limit of the channel. So, yes, one would take the short with more confidence. If, on the other hand, we make an attempt at reaching the high, much less making a higher one, then you're on your own, which is where the SLA comes in handy. As far as seeing it ahead of time, it's more understanding how and why people trade. People tend to want to buy what they think is cheap and sell what they think has become too expensive. That's what mean reversion is all about. Granted sometimes people go a little crazy, like in '00. But that's where the SLA helps to cut through the crap and maintain a tether to reality. There is also the matter of traders probing and poking and trying to find new levels of value so that they can make a little money (it's hard to make anything if value never changes, unless one is selling calls). This can sometimes make the day seem like an extended match of Battleship. But one can detect the footwork if he keeps an open mind and doesn't have to deal with fear.
Wyckoff. And retracing his footsteps through tape reading to daily charts. His course is a gold mine, yet getting people to read it, much less study it, is like pulling teeth. But then few people have any interest in making a living at this; they see it as a form of entertainment, like video poker. There are others on my reading list, but they merely enhance what I learned from Wyckoff. Zen and the Art of Poker was very helpful.
Wyckoff is definitely the master, but I guess is written in a way understandable for a few overtalented people, us common folk need the aid of a proficient translator, is great that there is one around.