Quote from praetorian2 I am 99% confident that we have topped out for the century What does that statement mean? Do you think that we will go lower from here? I think This is the time to get short. I think that the dow is going to take a enormous hit from here. Maybe even Sub 5000. I am also loaded up on gold. This BGO goes up everyday. But I have not added to the position. (Sucks for me) So what is the best index to short? SPY DIA or QQQ My opinion is DIA Thanks M
I think you undersatnd exactly what I am saying. My choice is SMH. I think that QQQ has slightly better value just b/c so much of it is MSFT and MSFT is sitting on cash.
The reason that I like the DIA, best for a short is they have participated the least in this really Index Percent increase Nasdaq Index up 38.74 % Dow 30 Index up 14.7% S&P 500 Index up 16.65% Thanks for your help I look forward to speaking with you in the future M
Problem with dow is that i expect a weak dollar, lots of stock in the dow like MMM/KO/MCD will really be beneficiaries of a weak dollar, while stuff like semis which are produced using soon to be very expensive asian currencies and sold in america will be squeezed hard.
we are very much of the same frame of mind. I have been long gold off and on (using the gold mini) and long the Euro (again the e-mini) for a while now. I am using the nq as my index short though RL looks like it might be a good candidate too. Have a small number of SMH puts too (bought the day IBM reported) though made the mistake of selling some Oct calls prior to INTC reporting, got out by the skin of my teeth on that one. This morning I put on my biggest postions of the year going Short NQ(75), Long YG(30), and Long the TY(20).
Interesting, I really prefer the smh puts to anything else b/c my risk is defined, and if we do have a washout, I will make a huge %. Same with gold. I think that buying these 2 dollar minis is the best play. Just look at where they were in 1996. There is so much more % leverage than even using futures. Good luck man.
I was long gold from 368 and saw it go to its highs for the year and eventually got stopped out in the mid 370's which hurt. So I have been a little more eager than usual to take some profits (which is why I haven't been using options as much as I would like given the spread). I assume you read Fleck. Looks like he is also of a similar frame of mind. Good luck to you too. Gold looks like it wants to see $400 pretty badly this year.
I trade a lot, but some things like gold can't be predicted, I just think it goes up for years, and I bought a huge chunk cheap and they'll have to pry it from my cold dead hands if they want it back. On stuff like smh, I'm much more willing to play around. I made 4 round trips today both long and short against my puts.
I used to do that but am too old for all that activity and to be honest not all that good at it anymore. I like to trade off the weekly and daily time frame though recently have been going down to the 60 min time frame too, but not happily.
SMH down over a beener after hours. I bought a few against my puts and against my short klac. Good luck guys.