that fat guy who used to own thinkorpaylotsofcommisions is always telling us that his options trades express an exact probability of success, and they draw pretty lines on a chart to show them. are you saying a guy like that who made millions selling cheese to traders is fos?
If ATM call delta (no carry) were 0.5, what do you think you would do: be buyer or be a seller? PS: I asked a guyon this to produce an ATM call delta of 0.5. I guess the answer might never come.
The exception would be the ATM 0.5 call delta on your trading performance. Short that call for an arb-gain.
Why do we have to play expiration games every time, atticus? Can't you just build a system and decide which way it'll move? I wouldn't ever take a bet just because delta's 0.5, atm, and ready to fall below the strike prior to expiration. In the sense of probability even if you wanted to say you could flip 2 out of 3 heads in a row without replacement if the second one's tails you'd be out and wouldn't be able to ever flip 2 heads in a row but if the last one or the first one is heads you still have a chance buying the call as long as the second isn't tails hitting two heads in a row depending on sequence, but you must still be right twice consecutively and it doesn't matter if it's the first two or the last two if you've managed to get 2 out of 3 with 2 sequential flips. You can either do hht or thh, but if you do hth you won't win because of multiplicative compounding. It has to be consecutive and it has to be compounded twice over to beat the delta's 50% probability. Even though I don't like to use delta that way, if we're really close to expiration you could take a chance with it, but you could buy the call instead if you're sure you can flip at least two out of three heads consecutively first or last.
Do you always ignore the subject matter for the sake of entertaining yourself with statements you don't address?
I was referring to selling a call option on his ability to trade at a profit. I think you finally got the slur, but too late to let it slide. Now you're attempting to cover the queef by playing butch. You went into a psychotic tangent about hit-rate. You're correct, lol, delta doesn't play a role, but your reply was so bizarrely out of place that it deserved a response. Ironically, if delta did play a role you would have to ack. the fact that it's *casually* interchangeable with prob. Within 5bp, right Champ? Ask yourself why Marti is still crying in the corner.