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(marketmariner- have some class and start a new thread if you want to change the subject or pitch a product). regarding the original topic on S&P500 market direction: It looks like the S&P500 could make a new short term high based on weekly analysis. Then a sideways swinging environment bouncing off the daily 200ma forming a giant head and shoulders pattern - then a break in the fall of the H&S to about a 50% retrace from the lows (which brings out all the doomsters). Then a 45 degree angle move up ala 1995 that may not make it all the way back to the top. Thats my 2 cents worth of contribution based on visual analysis of the charts in different timeframes.
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I update since end june my correlation with august 1980. you see on the chart how the last month datas have been experiencing the same moves than in saugust-september 1980. I used the first time, 82 open days ; THE ATTACHED GRAPH IS USING 150 OPEN DAYS. Normally it should be statistically difficult to find more than a 80% CORRELATION. i FIND 2 EXTREMELY INTERESTING CORRELATIONS, with september 1980 with a 94.96 % correlation and with March 1961 with a 95.58% correlation coef. What is interesting is the correlation between the 2 predictions . Both past dates have a common output in the next 150 days , SPX is up 7% exactly for both. I think these correlations are not spurious correlations and tell something abouth the waves market experience again and again. I find 1961 as an interesting date as it is a period of geopolitical tensions (JFK, Cuba, Cold war, kroutchev) I cannot paste the file here too big with excel you will find it on my yahoo list last message Also both correlated dates are bear market rallyes followed by a strong sell-off which erase all gains until august 1982 and June 1962, then followed by a long bull market.