Hello guys. I would tend to agree that buying bottoms is easier than selling tops. Tuesdays and wednesdays strong recovery doesnt really point to a major trend change, if any at all. Ive pulled out of my shorts now, and have re-itterated that i must trade what i see not what i think. Patients is a virtue. Good trading, guys.
My SHORT swing cost basis is above the 1405.00 MP level so that is my area to watch today....... One good trade so far today just before the news hit....... http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/30/ES_317_VB.png
5P What do you have for MP today? I am looking at several mp charts, 1 day, 5 day, 20 day. Still trying to figure out what to use. Also do you use the volume based or time based MP? Being the last day of the month do you expect the big guys to hold it together or run higher one more day?
I think "know" is a wrong word for this situations, because traders never know where and if there will be a top or a bottom for that matter. Traders can anticipate or not... For example if there there is a resistance above the price you can anticipate that it may be a top. If resistance will hold your anticipation will play-out, if resistance will not hold - then your anticipation will not play-out. If there is no resistance then there should be no anticipations of the top.
I do not use the VP charts.....TPO MP charts only. I have 1405.00, 1402.00 (minor level), 1395.75 (minor level), 1389.75, 1385.50 (minor level), and then the 1383.25. Of course the 1411.25 level is then our high for the year so that is potential resistance also with about a 1.5 to 2.0 point "stop-run" zone above that.
Working it hard today....the really good volatility is keeping the great follow through on price moves......... http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/30/ES_317_VB_4.png http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/30/ES_317_VB_6.png Also a couple of LONG's near the 1395.75 MP level........... http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/30/ES_317_VB_5.png http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/30/ES_317_VB_7.png
That is a minor level, a small (minimal TPO's) area in the MP chart that I have noticed some extra volume play at (bigger position size play).....just something I watch when the price is near or at these levels. I track the areas on the TPO chart prior to each days open, with the MOST TPO's and the LEAST TPO's....that is a part of auction market theory. http://www.charthub.com/images/2006/11/30/ES_317_VB_10.png
thanks that helped. I've been reading Mind over Markets so I'm starting to gain a better understanding of MP. Long ways to go. I know we've been over this before but could you refresh my memory regarding how many days you combine in you MP charts.
I look at various number of day TPO charts that will cover the range that the current price action is in, usually 30 days or less.