Quant: “Questionably useful analysis not technical"

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by wxytrader, Jul 30, 2025 at 6:28 PM.

  1. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    To maximize profits and if my TA was any good,
    I would have waited for my time & price opportunity,
    To sell a lower strike for the same (or higher) premium.

    But I understand that TA is fallible,
    No matter how "Charts Speak Volume",
    And that averaging down can help (Or not).

    Because uncertainty still prevails,
    No matter how knowledgeable we are.
     
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2025 at 10:33 PM
  2. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    That's not practical because sometimes price doesn't come to you... So if you add up the times you miss out on the trade versus the times it comes to you it's probably a wash anyway. I just break it into leg in levels so I don't have to even think about it. It's basically mechanical. Not to mention I'll have the opportunity to sell into price if I want to add more "risk."
     
    Sekiyo likes this.
  3. demoncore

    demoncore


    Stud, why didn't you short vol into the report when it was 20 vols higher? You don't like free money?
     
    taowave and Sekiyo like this.
  4. demoncore

    demoncore

    Dude didn't know how dividends are funded. Can't add two credits. Says the stock will miss -> shares rally a buck post report. They did drop today but the call was still wrong.
     
  5. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    You guys are the ones that didn't understand the concept of ROC and thought the coupon for MSTY would stay above $4 indefinitely. I totally schooled all of you on dividends .. especially considering its all derived from my hulk strategy from a few years ago.
     
  6. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    The original trade would have resulted in the same premium at a higher strike...which is why I stalled. It would have been manageable but not ideal like the current set up.
     
  7. Understanding is a very crucial element to trading.

    So many people just trade chart movement without having much context depth below the surface of it. Similar to processing a fortune cookie and other life wisdoms and lessons.

    Trading without understanding and context is randomly fishing by finding water and dropping a bait and pole in the water hoping to catch something.

    Day trading and understanding the daily S&P ES market is one example. So many people attempt to trade it and basically fail. Following lines, technical analysis, won't necessarily get you there. You have to reasonably know what to expect and look for. A combination of optimism, logic mixed with practical reality.
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2025 at 12:05 AM
    wxytrader likes this.
  8. If you want to understand a volume indicator try one simple task: plot the delta of that volume by yourself.

    As in the histogram bar you would see the final delta for that period as (longs - shorts).

    Then you will see how useless is the volume data you are looking at.
     
  9. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    You have a short memory....this MARA play was using Wycoff method. I am more than a 1 trick pony! :)

    The following screenshots are on ET, pre-dating the move.


    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2025 at 11:25 AM
  10. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    Volume is one of the most useless indicators out there. Maybe volume profile is more useful...I don't usually bother with it though. I went down the rabbit hole of volume profile charts and all the labelling just to be in the know. There were some interesting aspects. I was using https://gocharting.com/terminal?ticker=BYBIT:BTCUSD as they have all the tools for it.
     
    Last edited: Jul 31, 2025 at 11:23 AM