Randomness And Trading

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Tall Mike, Jul 18, 2020.

  1. assume any question that is posted just comes from me from now on haha.

    And yes, it was TastyTrade.

    This logic doesn't make any sense to me. I've seen proof somebody laid out that if something is random you can't make money from it.

    I used to enjoy their content, then I started realizing there is no edge in just blatantly selling premiums like they do. Personally, all these successful traders that come on their show, I truthfully don't think they understand the actual underlying risk of the strategy and how they are really exposed.
     
    #81     Jul 20, 2020
  2. interesting...
     
    #82     Jul 20, 2020
  3. themickey

    themickey

    Welp I disagree with this statement.
    Many traders are clueless. Many traders ignore fundamentals. Many traders trade via seat of pants, are leemings, they are financially illiterate.
    Most or many traders move price but they ignore or do zero research into fundamentals.
    I use some fundamentals and continue to find an edge with this info.
    It's not my only edge, but it complements it.
    In my opinion price often doesn't factor in price potential due to traders ignorance.
    Traders who are fundamentally ignorant would not know what they are missing.
    Which is all another reason why so many traders fail.
     
    #83     Jul 20, 2020
  4. userque

    userque

    I'd say that often price does factors in price potential ... irrationally, and especially due to trader ignorance. This is how bubbles form.

    This also causes the daily ebb and flow.
     
    #84     Jul 20, 2020
    Tradex likes this.
  5. It's so easy after the fact.
     
    #85     Jul 21, 2020
  6. actively

    actively

    I agree
     
    #86     Jul 21, 2020
    Tradex likes this.
  7. themickey

    themickey

    There are three prices, overbought, oversold and just right.
    I tend to look out for cheap undervalued stocks, stuff not hyped and as for TA, forgeddaboudit.
     
    #87     Jul 21, 2020
  8. Tall Mike:

    I'm not a fan of Tom / TastyTrade and we'll leave it at that.


     
    #88     Jul 21, 2020
  9. Tradex

    Tradex

    As best, fundamentals can "explain" the past.

    As a buy/signal tool they are more than useless.
     
    #89     Jul 21, 2020
  10. panzerman

    panzerman

    The problem is that there is every way under the sun to define a trend. How many of those can become a positive expectancy system? Who knows, perhaps many of them or perhaps none of them.

    Unlike the opinion in the "Backtesting is Useless" thread, I think that's what you need to do in order to get a big enough N to have statistical meaning. Of course backtesting is an art and science unto itself.
     
    #90     Jul 21, 2020