Ranging versus Trending

Discussion in 'Trading' started by DarkerthanDarc, May 24, 2025.


  1. You don't need stats. If you are taking about the SPX look at different flavours of the VIX index.

    .
     
    #11     May 25, 2025
    Elitechris likes this.
  2. 2rosy

    2rosy

    Calculate realized volatility.takes a few seconds
     
    #12     May 25, 2025
  3. 2rosy

    2rosy

  4. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    This is what I see using SPY since 2000 daily data.

    Chg is ABS(close-close[1])
    TR is MAX(high-low, ABS(high-close[1], ABS(low-close[1]))

    1 day ratio
    upload_2025-5-25_18-12-29.png

    5 day average of the ratio
    upload_2025-5-25_18-24-29.png
    2870 data point below 0.5 and 3513 data points above 0.5.

    21 day average of the ratio
    upload_2025-5-25_18-20-56.png
    2600 data point below 0.5 and 3746 data points above 0.5.

    Plot of the SPY and the 21 days average of the ratio.
    upload_2025-5-25_18-32-37.png
     
    Last edited: May 25, 2025
    #14     May 25, 2025
  5. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Close-open IMO is more informative than close-close[1]
     
    #15     May 25, 2025
    Sekiyo likes this.
  6. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    + high - low instead of True Range ?
    Can check it out.
     
    #16     May 25, 2025
  7. panzerman

    panzerman

    Identify trends is easy once you are in one. The real money is made by identifying when a trend starts and ends, in order to develop a positive expectancy method.

    Lag (group delay is the technical term) is the reason so many indicators do not work. A number of people have developed low/zero lag indicators for trend or reversion trading. I like the work of John Ehlers.

    Technical Papers
     
    #17     May 25, 2025
    HawaiianIceberg and Sprout like this.
  8. Sekiyo

    Sekiyo

    upload_2025-5-25_18-39-13.png

    SMA5
    upload_2025-5-25_18-41-12.png

    SMA21
    upload_2025-5-25_18-42-56.png

    SPY & SMA21
    upload_2025-5-25_18-44-52.png
     
    Last edited: May 25, 2025
    #18     May 25, 2025
    beginner66 likes this.
  9. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Nope, just close vs open IOW candle-body.
     
    #19     May 25, 2025
    HawaiianIceberg and Sekiyo like this.
  10. Sprout

    Sprout

    The 25% stat seems high

    More a historial analysis, not including the Trump Effect
    They Still Haven't Told You

    upload_2025-5-25_10-57-37.png
     
    #20     May 25, 2025
    sridhga, beginner66 and Ivano like this.