Discussion in 'Economics' started by traderdragon2, Jan 11, 2007.
eggsactly---now just keep staying away its too scary and not glamorous
funny you mentioned this...
Not a day goes by that my wife and I don't talk about how much we miss Aventura and how much we want to move back. We always comment to each other how much classier everyone is there. All the good looking men and women from South America. I would much rather walk around Calle Ocho and Little Havana than a Mexican area here of So Cal. The Cubans are so much more intelligent and have a rich culture than even the best Mexican here. We miss the shopping, the food and the best beaches in the US.
We would move back in a second if it were not for hurricanes, mosquitos/ants, a horrid healthcare system, lack of elevation changes, and limited outdoor activities such as Hiking,Rock Climbing, Skiing, Snowmobiling, ATVs, etc...
Overall we loved Aventura much better but the negatives outweigh the positives for us right now. So here we stay in So Cal thinking up reasons to move back to Miami
Well all real estate is local. Here in southwest florida it seems that we are swamped with selling pressure. Between builders, speculators and resellers, the market is flooded. OTH, I hear the midwest and some other regions are actually pretty well balanced between supply and demand.
But how in the world did yesterday's permits and starts go UP 5%?
Much of the permit increases were attributable to multi-unit developments.
Where in SW Florida? I keep hearing that Naples is weak. Maybe I'm old school but if prices go from 200k to a 1.4 in a decade and then come back in to 1.1, that's not my idea of a collapse. Particuarly given that nothing really traded on the highs per se'.
Only an uptick in rates (I'm VERY bearish on Bonds) will kill RE.
Tampa / Sarasota area. I can tell you that every neighborhood I drive through seems to have For Sale signs on every block. And many seem to have both For Sale and For Rent signs out front. I personally know several people who bought a new house before selling the old one, and now can't even get people to look at the old one. If this situation persists beyond April, when the snow birds head back north, look out below, because I don't think many of the speculators who entered the market want (or can) sit on these houses for another year. They have taxes, insurance, association fees, lawn care, pool care, interest etc expenses. I also think, but don't know this, that some have pulled their house off the market, waiting for "things to pick up" before re-listing. So I think there is quite a bit of pent up selling pressure.
You are dead on correct. There are at least 20% renting below carrying costs to give themselves more time for the market to reverse. There are at least 15% off the market quietly waiting for improvements to reenter. There are developers sitting on their butts unable to build on purchased land due to no interest in new project pre-sales. There are at least 25% of new condos recently turned over from developers to owners who will have to raise their maintenance fees substantially to fund reserves, higher hurricane insurance. There are at least 15% of new owners who are just now starting to realize that their taxes went up dramatically to the new price valuations assessed as of 1 Jan 2007. It looks pretty bad in terms of market structure.
But that said - the new waterfront luxury condos about 2-3 years old in particular are an extremely good deal right now. These can't be replaces or rebuilt at the same level of price we got from the first wave of post pre-construction retail plus ups. This is the time to buy into these.
How much lower to you see places on Siesta Key and that area off of St. Armonds circle going?
Yeah, and check this out.
I really haven't followed Siesta Key or St Armands. I can tell you though, that a friend of mine is selling his deceased father's place on Siesta Key and was astonished when the realtor told him how many places are for sale now.
Housing sales # that came out just now is apprently the worst decline since '82, YoY according to Reuters. Of course, the market will rally on this great singal that the Fed will cut rates.
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