Discussion in 'Economics' started by traderdragon2, Jan 11, 2007.

  1. JGTrader


    One of my friends put in an offer on a brand new 2/2 in that area for $50k below the asking price and got it accepted within a day.

    I sold a condo at the beach in SD a couple of years ago and the price has fallen 15% since.

    There is lower to go for this market. The lower inventory is probably people pulling their houses off the market or builders giving huge incentives to sell. Once these incentives are gone prices will drop more.

    #31     Jan 12, 2007
  2. Real Estate expert I know who deals in So Cal says he is seeing 15-20% discount from last summer in SD.
    #32     Jan 12, 2007
  3. How does that compare with...say...three summers ago? I had some of my rental properties jump 50% in two years, then slide back 8%. Not bad if you ask me...

    #33     Jan 12, 2007
  4. JGTrader


    3 summers ago was the pop, just before I sold my condo. Since then its down 15%.
    However condo's tend to drop the most, especially with all the condo conversion.
    #34     Jan 12, 2007
  5. Nah, were only down 3.5% in the last 9 months (rolls eyes)

    That number doesnt match anything ive seen on other websites.

    Im seeing 15%,20% off below the zillow trend line, which shows 7-9% down for the year in san diego with no sign of stopping yet.

    #35     Jan 12, 2007
  6. Nearly 1 in 4 homes in san diego (24.7%) fall into the "bank owned" or "Auction" categories.

    28.5% more homes are in pre-foreclosure.

    In other words, over 50% of homes in san diego are foreclosed, auction, or in pre-foreclosure categories.

    There is no way anyone can say these numbers "arent that bad."

    Just because inventory numbers took a small dip, doesnt mean we still arent at record inventory levels. We are.

    The numbers are terrible.
    #36     Jan 12, 2007
  7. S2007S


    what you are seeing is a reality, how the market views it, well the market thinks its going to be a gentle softlanding.
    #37     Jan 12, 2007
  8. Kinda like the people who held onto their NAZ stocks in 2000 whe kept thinking they would come back up in a few months :D

    #38     Jan 12, 2007
  9. Got to remember the fees for foreclosing. I looked at one locally, owed 305K sale was slated for 324K due to fees, etc.
    #39     Jan 12, 2007
  10. Builder here is trying to sell the last few units for 373K with a 37K rebate = net 336. Same floorplan as being solid by other prior owners in the 400K range. The builders homes are loaded with upgrades, resale homes are base models.

    Makes total sense to me that the resale homes aren't selling but the owners haven't figured it out yet... :D

    Sounds like the resale homes need to be priced in the 300-310 range to even get bites, but, that puts them about 40K underwater from initial purchase not including carrying costs of 12-18 months.

    We aren't close to a bottom and the numbers in realtor reports are fluffed up gross transfer numbers which aren't true transfer value.:mad:
    #40     Jan 12, 2007