Discussion in 'Economics' started by traderdragon2, Jan 11, 2007.

  1. Obviously you have no knowledge of how expensive Japan RE was at the height of the "bubble". Take what you consider to be the most overpriced area of California and multiply it by eight and then maybe you'll understand Japanese valuations. Even after 15 years of declining prices, Japan is still expensive compared to the U.S.
    #81     Jan 17, 2007
  2. My parents bought property in Shizuoka Prefecture towards the height of the bubble, unfortunately. They lost a substantial amount of money. I know first-hand how out of control that market became. I remember even as a little kid those 1-bedroom apartments in Shibuya and Shinjuku selling for the equivalent of millions of US dollars.

    'Tis true that prime Tokyo RE was out of this world for even CA, but I think what is remarkable was not the absolute Yen amount depreciation, but rather the percentage depreciation from the peak.

    Just as in financial markets it does not make sense to compare the same dollar amount move in two different markets trading at different levels, it does not make sense to do the same in RE markets. The more meaningful comparison is the percentage based change in value from some reference level. In this case, it is peak valuations.

    #82     Jan 17, 2007
  3. I absolutely agree. My point though is that neither in dollar denominated nor percentage terms can or will the U.S. correction approach that as suffered by Japan. We're just not frothy enough.

    And BTW: apologies for my snideness in reference to your experience vis-à-vis Japan. Obviously you're an expert!
    #83     Jan 17, 2007
  4. Hmm. Maybe I won't live there? I was under the impression that the PB/OB area was very mellow and safe. I currently live in a town where people don't lock cars or houses. No crime. The previous town I was in, I didn't own a key to the house. Never locked it once. (the town was Hood River, OR. A sports mecca).

    I haven't really dealt with the crime thing since I lived in downtown SF (Russian Hill). A guy was offed in a mugging directly in front of my house. I even heard the shots. Not sure I want to deal with that crap again.
    #84     Jan 17, 2007
  5. Mvic


    For all those who are waiting for a housing sell off to buy just make sure that you have plenty of cash. You may find that you agree on a price and the mortgage company won't sign off on the appraisal. They may also have tightened lending rules if there is a significant decrease in prices such that you will have to pony up 30-40 maybe even 50% to qualify for a mortgage. Anyone thinking that 5% down mortgages will be available during a full on crash is going to be very dissapointed.

    As with all panic situations in the markets cash is king (anyone who was trading at the CME in 87 will recall people selling Rolexes and sports cars for cash at ridiculous prices).
    #85     Jan 17, 2007
  6. What were the ridiculous prices?
    #86     Jan 17, 2007
  7. A Chicago jeweler named Howard Frum made a name for himself (to this day) as the primary market maker in used Rolex Presidential's.

    One guy in the Bonds was stuck with an unsellable grey market 1985 500SL. It wound up being the Grand Prize in the annual bond pit Super Bowl squares contest. $300 a square. If I remember correctly the holder of the winning square already owned a Ferrari 328.............
    #87     Jan 18, 2007

  8. What may I ask peaked your interest about OC more so than San Diego?

    #88     Jan 18, 2007
  9. stereo70


    OB has the appearance of being very mellow. I lived on the Pier in 1996-98. Two murders at night right outside my door...I was also knocked unconscious while walking down Newport Ave. at about 1:30 AM. Lots of meth-heads. Pretty random stuff, but there is a lot of it, and it gets old quickly.

    If you don't lock your door, it won't be there when you return.
    Most people I knew back then were only there for the surfing. Friend of mine now lives in during the day, kinda rough at night. FWIW
    #89     Jan 18, 2007
  10. A few things. The OC reminds me of a white man's SoFla. Like Naples, :) .

    San Diego on the other hand has always been like a poor mans L.A. Congested, too Mexican, seedy but without the intrinsic glamour.

    Let me ask you something, bro. After living in both (Aventura certainly has Latin's, eh?) don't you find South American's and Cuban's to be WAY better than Mexican's?
    #90     Jan 18, 2007