Request for feedback on my SIM Day trading results

Hello all,

I need your feedback please. Any feedback (Positive, Negative, etc.) is welcome. Below are my simulated forward discretion manually day trades. I trade 1 contract Crude Oil market from 7am to 11am central.

The Trading Method 1 is mixture of reversals and breakout
The Trading Method 2 is only breakout.

My strategy is mostly breakout and reversal intraday 3 minute chart.

I am considering going live cash soon.

My concerns how I trade:

1. My losses are bigger than wins.

Trading Method 1


Trading Method 2


Thanks in advance

 

Both have negative expectancy. Win rate is meaningless.

 

Thanks ironchef,

How did you calculate negative expectancy? My results show positive.

 

If I had a gun to my head and had to pick which method to use it would #1.
Mainly due to the fact the average loss is "only" 33% more than the average win.
In method #2, average loss is 79% more than average win.

I'd suggest to you to add in average MAE/MFE numbers. Those can reveal more useful info in which to improve your methods, instead of w/l percent, which as ironchef said, is meaningless. jmho.

You have to remember, regardless of w/l percent, the sequence in which W or L occur is random. Out of 100 trades, there could be 50 losers in a row. But still out of 100 trades your w/l percent can remain... the 100 trades is "rolling". Method #2 is clearly negative. Method #1 is negative, but much closer to breakeven.

 

I agree, averages lie and hide. MAE shows how much heat you sat through to achieve that high win rate. Track MaxMAE, not only avg MAE.

 

While this is true, he has had 420 trades which should be enough to have some idea of the longest win/loss streak. If it's 3 in testing and in live trading he hits 10, then he should stop and re-evaluate. You can't get a statistically perfect situation.

 

I like to look at 5%/95% quantiles just to see what worse/best could look like.

 

You mean throw away 5% best and worst "outliers?" That is good, but that's on closed trades. I am interested in how much of a draw down the trade suffered prior to ending up a winner or a small looser.

 

Max MAE/MFE values are a bit misleading imo, as they are contextual to "a" trade. Using the avg (across a population), or quartile, gives info that can be recognized in RT, and used for improving.

 

Your losses are bigger than wins because you're taking profit sooner rather later. But the result is a higher win rate, which balances that out. If you held for higher profit, many of these trades wouldn't make it all the way, and end up being losses.

Either way, it seems to be profitable, looks good to me.