Got a hard laugh out of your post. Thanks. The "Polish planes" are Biden's fault? Isn't the worst possible screwup giving Ukraine the planes is risking escalation with Russia?
I'd like to see what they are claiming is calling for the end so I can read it. Forgive me for taking the "dailybeast" at its word.
Yeh, the merits- or lack thereof- of giving the planes to Ukraine is a valid discussion- but as I said- typical of Camp Biden- they handled it in a way they pissed off both sides of that issue. Much like the AFG withdrawal. To withdraw or not withdraw was a valid discussion- but ain't nobody on either side of that issue who likes the way it was handled. Welcome to Camp Biden. I used to joke during the campaign that "if Biden is elected and he wants to nuke Moscow, the the folks in Moscow, Idaho better watch their arse. Not so funny today. Arguably, never was.
Amazing. The reality is actually getting through to the Russian propagandists. Although they still don't understand that unless they withdraw fully, apologize and pay reparations, the sanctions are NOT going away. Partial transcript of the talk show on Russian TV of the biggest war cheerleader Solovyov: Guest: "What are they achieving by prolonging the war? First of all, public opinion within Russia is changing. People are shocked by the masses of refugees, the humanitarian catastrophe, people start to imagine themselves in their place. It’s starting to affect them. To say that the Nazis are doing that is not quite convincing, strictly speaking... On top of that, economic sanctions will start to affect them, and seriously. There will probably be scarcity. A lot of products we don’t produce, even the simplest ones. There’ll be unemployment. They really thought through these sanctions, they’re hitting us with real continuity. It’s a well-planned operation... Yes, this is a war of the United States with Russia... These sanctions are hitting us very precisely. This threatens the change of public opinion in Russia, the destabilization of our power structures... with the possibility of a full destabilization of the country and a civil war. This apocalyptic scenario is based on the script written by the Americans. They benefit through us dragging out the military operation. We need to end it somehow. If we achieved the demilitarization and freed the Donbas, that is sufficient... I have a hard time imagining taking cities such as Kyiv. I can’t imagine how that would look. If this picture starts to transform into an absolute humanitarian disaster, even our close allies like China and India will be forced to distance themselves from us. This public opinion, with which they’re saturating the entire world, can play out badly for us... Ending this operation will stabilize things within the country." Another guest: "We didn’t even feel the impact of the sanctions just yet... We need to be ready for total isolation. I’m not panicking, just calling things by their proper name." Host: "Gotcha. We should just lay down and die." Guest: "Now about Ukraine... We had prior experiences of bringing in our troops, destroying the military infrastructure and leaving. I think that our army fulfilled their task of demilitarization of the country by destroying most of their military installations. To restore their military they will need at least 10 years. Let Ukrainians do this denazification on their own. We can’t do it for them. As for their neutrality, yes, we should squeeze it out of them, and that’s it. We don’t need to stay there longer than necessary. Do we need to get into another Afghanistan, but even worse? There are more people and they’re more advanced in their handling of weapons. We don’t need that. Enough already. As for the sanctions, the world has never seen such massive sanctions."
Some of the sanctions imposed, such as the cancellation of energy partnerships, among others, totaling over $100 billion are not necessarily like a on/off switch. Also, Russia will still feel the effects of sanctions for a while even if all sanctions are turned off immediately. There has been a lot of Physical damage to Ukraine and economic damage to Russia. The West has been hit economically as well. For an agreement to be reached, it may be each party will simply have to accept some damage. Hopefully each party will recognize their role in creating this situation and long term agreements wiil be reached so we don’t repeat a situation like this again. I worry that one of the party’s involved will be stubborn and press for an advantage, stalling agreement that will simply increase economic damage for all.
While the aggression that led to the sanctions continues, there can be no question of ending sanctions. Fault needs to be admitted and the damage caused to Ukraine has to be compensated. There is no way sanctions can be removed before that happens. I predict a long and extremely hard period for Russia. Most thinking people in Russia understand that. I see reports in Russian socials that there is a huge flood of people trying to get out. Many entrepreneurs, IT people and other professionals who see no future in Russia are getting out by any means possible. Georgia and Armenia are overwhelmed with such people right now (because they are the easiest destination). Last I heard a ticket from St Petersburg to Helsinki on a train was going for 9000 euros. Russian government is stuck. Withdrawing troops, admitting fault and paying damages is hugely humiliating. They cannot do that and survive. Withdrawing troops without the other two parts will just leave the sanctions in place. Ukraine will be rebuilt and Russia will sink deep into an economic crisis, a rogue pariah state no one wants to deal with. Contrasting rebuilt Ukraine and Russia will create an ideological nightmare for the government. Not withdrawing - occupying Ukraine - is even worse. 44 million people who hate your guts require 1-2 million soldiers to occupy, which Russia simply doesn't have and enormous financial resources which Russia has even less. Add to that the pressure of a few dozen soldiers killed every day... There is no off-ramp. And they created this themselves. Truly when God intends to destroy you, first he takes away your brain.
The planes are a mess, even though I’m not so sure the Ukrainians are capable of effectively engaging Russian pilots if they got them. Could’ve turned into a disaster too. What I will say about equipping the Ukrainians is they need something to take out the Russian orlan-10 targeting drones.
The only thing I would say is I wouldn’t count out lifting of some sanctions as part of a brokered peace deal.