Let's just cut to the chase. Show us the Yahoo comparison from 2016 to present. Compress it how you like. Let's see if it's consistent with your chart.
So then let's cut to the chase indeed. You are asserting that a 3X percentage daily return index of QQQ started just before the .com bust would be where, exactly, compared to the QQQ index today, or in 2020 say? If you're so certain I'm wrong and you've done this yourself, then surely you can enlighten us all on what the correct answer is? Seems simple enough, but let me guess, you're through providing a free education and I wouldn't grasp it anyway.... At at the end of the day, are you capable of actually coming up with an answer or just telling others their answer must be wrong?
You tried it, but got the same results that I got, right. Instead of just saying that, you figured you'd try again to trigger me into helping you. Look at the y-scale of the commercial charts. They go from positive to negative percentages. Now look at your y-scale. But that doesn't explain how QQQ can climb faster than TQQQ on your chart. It's almost as if they are internally reversed. Make your y-axis calculations like the commercial products. And if that doesn't fix it, post your spreadsheet if you want me/others to download it and take a look.
Leverage 3x, pray you don't blow up. Lower your leverage every month with gains and selling. If you are lucky can beat 10%
in a strictly up market, the TQQQ will perform better. in a strictly down market the TQQQ will perform worse. In a sideways market the TQQQ will perform worse than the QQQ. This has to do with downdrift component in returns. So there will be periods that the TQQQ will do a lot better than the QQQ. However, I have never heard anyone say that the TQQQ is a safe investment. These products were designed to satisfy retail investor lust for leveraged returns while ultimately going to zero for the benefit of the sponsoring financial entity.
No, you didn't try it and you've never even attempted to provide an answer to the underlying question of how a TQQQ index would have performed from .com days. You showed a graph with a different starting point and therefore completely different scales. And as I look back at it, I think it is the fact that by the point in the chart you're looking at the TQQQ is tiny and QQQ is huge you're never going to be able to draw a line on the chart to compare slopes which seems to be the issue you're hanging everything on. Again, you wanted to cut to the chase so let's do that. I am claiming a 3X daily return index based on QQQ would have fallen 99.9% from it's pre dot.com highs and be lower than QQQ today. Do you disagree with that statement, and if so, what do you think the max drawdown and current state would be? If you don't have an answer to that or don't disagree, then wtf is your point again, cutting to the chase as you say? By the way, it's interesting that the folks at TQQQ - Is It A Good Investment for a Long Term Hold Strategy? (optimizedportfolio.com) came up with this which looks mighty familiar. What does your chart of the period look like again? and the folks at
Just passing by,but you are aware of the effect of path dependency. Look at the divergence between returns on 3 consecutive days Day 1 = down 20 percent Day 2 = up 15 percent Day 3= up 15 percent. Non lever = Up 5.8 percent 3x lever. = Down 15 .9 percent
The y axis is of the balance, and not of the percentage change, as is the case with commercial charting platforms. This fact, combined with a very low balance for TQQQ after the fall, and a relatively very high value for QQQ after the fall, is probably likely for the skewed 'looking' results. The 3x effect is completely overwhelmed by the huge discrepancy in the balances between the two instruments. Your y-scale was ambiguous and without a label, which is why I suggested you make it a percentage change scale, and see if your charts would look more normal. Your QQQ/TQQQ started near 100. Which, absent a label, I assumed was 100%, not $100.00! So if you compare trading $50 (The chart you quoted shows TQQQ losing 99.95%, or being 0.05%, which is $50) of TQQQ with a few thousand dollars of QQQ, you'll get a graph like yours from 2003 onward. Not sure how many people would let their account fall to $50 from $10,000; then continue to trade with only that $50. But if they do, your chart is important to them.
My entire original point was that any security that within my trading lifetime has effectively fallen to zero is the opposite of what the OP is asking for; a "safe" investment that returns "1% per month". @E-MiniToGo disagreed with the fact that a TQQQ index has fallen effectively to zero in the recent past based on no more rigor than his incorrect understanding of percentage daily percentage return funds, and apparently the inability to understand that you could recreate what a 3X daily percentage return fund index on your own. So I recreated it for him to demonstrate that with some rigor, for all the good that did unfortunately. That's all.