Scatty On The Markets... your questions answered here!

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by Scataphagos, Oct 15, 2021.

  1. I'd say I'm 100% self taught. The only trading book I ever read is Nison's book on Candlesticks... wasn't all that valuable. Candle patterns at turning points on daily or perhaps hourly charts have some value, but they are not novel.

    So... I'm self-taught. The following explains...

    "...My undergrad was pre-med. My first chemistry lab was to observe a candle and write down all of my observations. My list was about 30. When the lab report came back from grading, there was a list included with “all the observations you could have made”. There were 80 items on that list. So there I was… candle in front of my eyes while I intensely “observed”… and I missed most of them.
    The market is like that too. We all have the same data in front of our faces, yet most of us somehow manage to “not see the forest for the trees”. There are a number of significant, tradable price correlations in the charts that don’t catch our attention. Those correlations can be learned. That's "Price TA".

    One of my favorite quotes comes from Sherlock Holmes. When asked, “Just what is it that you do, Mr. Holmes?” He replied, “I observe and deduce”. Applies as much to trading as to fictional crime scenes..."
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2021
    #41     Oct 16, 2021
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  2. qlai

    qlai

    Hm, interesting, just gave me a thought: find a good book on criminal investigation. Some concepts may be very useful - like the dog not barking :)
     
    #42     Oct 16, 2021
  3. Handle123

    Handle123

    Actually, you and I trade very differently. Often think all years I have scalped has factored into my long term trading, but for most part still have 75% of the stocks I bought in 2009 and added along the way taking profits from scalping to do so. Do much covered calls during certain times, when expecting pullbacks, and sell puts when expecting moves up like recent H&S pattern in ES.

    Didn't mean to overwhelm you, but many don't know what to ask and found your answers interesting. By far best in awhile on stock trading.

    Steepness of slope tells me reversal is near and often give signals to hedge open profits and go other way with futures and hedge those as well.

    Can't teach someone a career in a weekend or few months, there is so much to digest, so much to memorize. Guy am working, we at it nearly two years now, some weeks he gets it and others small losing week. Even taught him a "Holy Grail" option system which he is 68 out of 68 trades. There is so much to memorize and older one is, even tougher.

    Everyone wants to be my friend like my knowledge is going to rub up against them, and being internet, those who are sincere often times are vendors.

    When people go to doctors or dentists do you expect to be charged? And they teach to keep well, car mechanics fix your car and teach you how to keep it running. I don't understand why people think it should be free in trading, spending over 100,000 hours of screen time, didn't take vacations for decades. And it won't die, have it automated.
     
    #43     Oct 16, 2021
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  4. deaddog

    deaddog

    Scatty: The majority of traders fail. What in your opinion are the top 5 reasons that traders are not successful?
     
    #44     Oct 16, 2021
  5. qlai

    qlai

    I don’t think I ever heard this before from traders. What is there to memorize? You mean all the pre-requisites for a specific trade set up? I assume you can automate that into scans. Or you mean it’s overwhelming for students to take everything in at once?
     
    #45     Oct 16, 2021
  6. That's the kind of thing in which you can have high confidence and trade "bigger". I don't know of anything like that in my method, but some correlations are "very" high and should be traded bigger. (Too bad they don't occur all that often.) At such times the potential reward is great and worth additional risk IMV.

    I don't particularly care for options, but I might learn to care if I had a 68/68 tool. :)
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2021
    #46     Oct 16, 2021
  7. That's almost a LOL. #1, most traders fail because they are in too much a hurry to get rich. They deploy their capital before they really know what they are doing... doesn't take long to get wiped out... especially when they use too much leverage.

    Whatever the "other 4" in the top 5 reasons, they pale in comparison to the #1.

    When you really know what you're doing, it's pretty difficult to lose money. You have to screw up to do so... you should know what "screwing up" means (more than one way to do so, of course), and should be guarding against it at all times.

    Capital must be protected always. For most traders, when they wipe out their capital they are done. They don't get more money with which to "try again".

    It's OK to "screw up and miss an opportunity". That's easy enough to do. All you have to do is be thinking a little wrong about a situation and it gets away from you. But as long as your capital is still intact, you can continue on and catch the next one.
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2021
    #47     Oct 16, 2021
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  8. deaddog

    deaddog

    That leads to the question how do you get to that point? The point where it's pretty difficult to lose money.

    I take it you've seen lots of traders screw up. I'll rephrase my question. If there are many ways to screw up, what would you consider the top 5 and how would you guard against them?
     
    #48     Oct 16, 2021
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  9. "How do you get to that point"? It's like the old question, "How do you get to Carnegie Hall"? The answer of course is practice, practice, practice. But you have to practice good habits and make proper trades. What are "proper trades"? Ones with Price TA correlation. One I'm sure you already know... "upside breakout".

    There are ways to "start" a screw up... like shorting upside breakouts in a bull market or buying at resistance. Any poor quality trade you might make isn't much of a screw up until you let the market move against you too far (not respecting your stop) or even average into your loser. And then there is leverage... many inexperienced traders are concerned about "how much leverage can I get"? You give yourself the best chance of fully getting into the swing of trading for money when you trade with ZERO leverage... or minimal leverage as would likely be the case in trading futures.

    I'm a bit amazed about your affection for "top 5 bad things". If someone were to ask me to list the "top 5 bad things I do", I couldn't even list 5.
     
    Last edited: Oct 16, 2021
    #49     Oct 16, 2021
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  10. Overnight

    Overnight

    Or by *cough buyingatATH cough*, like me. :)
     
    #50     Oct 16, 2021
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