Shooud you let the profits run OR take smaller profits and increase position size?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by Tomaz26, Jul 8, 2015.

  1. Handle123

    Handle123

    So much to answer cause it is not easy to answer. ALL can be answered by much back testing and not here. No one knows your Trading Plan which is incomplete if you are asking this forum. Much has to be considered, timeframe, number of trades per day on average (5 years). http://www.tradingheroes.com/mfe-and-mae-deconstructed-and-how-they-can-help-your-trading/
    Maximum Favorable Excursion (MFE)– is a maximal unrealized profit during the period.
    Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)– is a maximal unrealized loss during the period.

    Best is try to nail down 90% of best accumulation of profits. Say you trade ES and you see best profits are 2.00 points and perhaps it hits 50% of the time, then on each side it tapers down.

    There is always trade offs as well, when you go for higher profits losing percentages will go up and when you go for smaller profits, losing percentage should go down. But seriously, only the stats should direct you what is best.
     
    #11     Jul 9, 2015
    xandman, Tomaz26 and Rashid_G. like this.
  2. formica

    formica

    What if anything goes wrong? What if at a certain account building point, you get a bad trade and because of using high volume for bigger profit you get ripped off!! Don't you feel bad at that certain point and you have to start over again !!!
     
    #12     Jul 9, 2015
  3. jamesvo

    jamesvo

    I think increase position size could increase the risks as well. Getting steady profit is a safe way to keep your account alive and a good performance.
     
    #13     Jul 9, 2015
  4. Best answer.... Basically this is the "work" in trading. What about on a weekly/monthly basis factor in ATR and target a healthy percentage of that.... I would add to keep a small percentage in case of the aberration day where it flies multiples of ATR...

    Bottom line the only reason this question is being asked in the first place is the human inability to deal with the randomness of markets, which causes pain. The hybrid exit method I think covers you psychologically in both ways the markets "hurt" us.
     
    #14     Jul 9, 2015
  5. Handle123

    Handle123

    So you going with trading a one lot rest of your life? Any time you increase size you going to increase risk, but not risk per trade, so that comes down to losing percentages.
    Something will always go wrong, nature of the business, you must have that in your Trading Plan and have answer before problem arises. But unless you are happy trading a one lot, wealth accumulation going to be slow going. Do you think McDonald's be as big as it is if they had the one store? Do you think Starbucks have had the big run up with one city of selling coffee? You take risks and providing your back testing shows what you want to do over longer duration trading, history does repeat itself, if you don't think so, you not gone back in time long enough.

    What happens when market you day trading has 20-30 days in a row where ATR is 50% of what was normal for last two years and you only go for large profits? Could you lose half your account? Whereas the trader who goes for smaller profits will make money almost each day. I found in my back testing that going for 2.00 points in ES is much easier and less time consuming than 10.00 points and having to sit there all day. If you can't be making 2-6 points in first hour of day session consistently, spending all day unless you getting education, trading only gets much harder.
     
    #15     Jul 9, 2015
  6. Tomaz26

    Tomaz26

    Just the thing I was looking for, thanks. I will also see through trial and error and last 100 trades if I am leaving too much on the table or if I am actually waiting too long to close the trade. Right now I think I am something in between..

    Just the other day I traded the whole day and ended with 130 points profits from 19 trades. 15 winners, 4 small loosers, but at the end of the day the result was the same as if I had just bought the index and closed the trade at the end of the day.. Days like that I ask myself if it is worth watching the price all day, making trades and being nervous. Sometimes it would really make more sense to swing trade and have position open for a few days. Just as you can find low risk entry during the day, you can find low risk entry for swing trading, tight stop for 20-50 points and trying to catch 500 points move.. I am talking German index DAX here..

    thanks to all for some very good insides!
     
    #16     Jul 11, 2015
  7. Redneck

    Redneck

    Shooud you let the profits run OR take smaller profits and increase position size?



    In my simple minded thinking;


    Take smaller profits.., why

    Mkt trending - making money

    Mkt rangy - still making money


    Yeah - one misses the extend move by not taking the "let it run" route

    But

    Can always re-enter

    and

    Significantly reduces the "price returning for a stop out" when it doesn't run


    =======================

    Impossible to do both..., so pick your poison - then drink it with delight


    jmo (and way of trading)

    RN
     
    #17     Jul 11, 2015
    SteveH likes this.
  8. loyek590

    loyek590

    yes my friend, but that assumes you are operating more efficiently than the guy below you who is taking even smaller profits
     
    #18     Jul 11, 2015
  9. Redneck

    Redneck


    I hate guessing

    If you're referring to weak handed (headed) traders - I don't care

    If you're referring to HTF - I don't care


    Both are simply part of the fabric that makes up a mkt

    Assumptions unnecessary - simply trade accordingly




    RN
     
    #19     Jul 11, 2015
  10. loyek590

    loyek590

    just two sides I suppose, one side is trying to make meaningful money on smaller and smaller moves, and the other side is looking for even larger moves

    I know I can't compete on costs, so that kind of rules out smaller and smaller moves for me

    so I need a big move to make any meaningful amount of money, and in an efficient market those big moves occur less and less frequently

    so in an efficient market I look for smaller and smaller moves until the costs eat me alive

    and so the circle goes
     
    #20     Jul 11, 2015