Short-term Prognostications for the USD, CHF, AUD?

Discussion in 'Forex' started by UVXY20, Apr 13, 2024.

  1. UVXY20

    UVXY20

    The drones are on their way, so ...... whither safe currencies?
     
  2. "Safe" havens are an interesting topic. Within Forex, AUD is definitely not one! It is very much a risk on-risk off currency, tends to highly reflect the US equities markets.

    The Swiss Franc is in a clear downtrend due to their recent interest rates announcements. In general it has not been a consistently useable safe haven lately. When there was a sudden move a few years back, some then permanently lost trust in it, and the margin requirement for it on CME Forex Futures reflects its riskiness.

    The Yen also can be considered a safe haven by some, but right now it is a mess. It will likely continue to heavily track the US Ten year treasuries prices, and those notes were certainly used as a classic safe haven by some this Friday. So the Yen did better than most. But when you look at the chart, despite that the Yen was only about flat against the dollar, compared to the numerous major Forex losses elsewhere vs the Dollar.

    That leads me to the US Dollar. Almost everything else went down against it Friday. The most reliable Forex safe haven right now for day to day uses, despite the massive and rapidly growing government debt. It can pay to look at the DXY chart.

    Speaking of Money: I suspect that Gold will continue to regain popularity as a safe haven, it certainly has thousands of years of history behind it for that purpose. Central banks have sure helped that momentum over the last many months too, with their continuing major monthly purchases of it!
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2024
    billv likes this.