Something very simplistic

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Quah, Sep 11, 2002.

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  1. Quah


    No, I wasn't trying to say that at all - I wasn't very clear. I'm saying exactly the same thing you are saying - I just didn't say it clearly.

    I'm saying you can't look at any system and say that it has a 50/50 chance of being profitable. Once you include a "system" in the mix, you can't assign a statistical chance to the trades - maybe subjective odds - but anything other than total randomnes (as you said) precludes the 50/50.
    #21     Sep 11, 2002
  2. look at this exchange:
    it was later suggested by someone that you should exit and reverse at 48 and increase the size of your position.
    #22     Sep 11, 2002
  3. It's really amazing for me how people can make money consistently in the emini's trading purely on a single technical indicator mechanically. I suppose it's a huge advantage to be able to allow a program to do all the work and take the human element out of it. That said, what's the logic behind fibonacci-style entry points, especially if you're using a separate indicator for entry? I would guess that restricting any trader to certain windows for trading would help to alleviate overtrading, but is there any other advantage? Assuming you're using some indicator, I would think that you'd have to skip many good signals from that indicator simply because it doesn't fall into a specified bar? I guess I'm missing the point?
    #23     Sep 11, 2002
  4. Quah


    I guess it depends on what you consider "good signals". The only good signals with this system occur on those specific times - period. Is that logical? I have no idea. It is logical in that I can logically explain what the rules are. Are they good rules? Only time will tell.

    The time is simply another indicator.
    #24     Sep 11, 2002
  5. interesting system - i have don a little bit backtesting. I have used exact the time you give us in your 1st post.

    I've played around a while with stochastic mcd rsi the best I can get is this one over 300 days.


    Corse there are times when the system workes but more often ........

    TAKE CARE !!!!

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    #25     Sep 11, 2002
  6. Quah


    I'd be curious to see the trades your backtesting produced for today. Can you post them?
    #26     Sep 11, 2002
  7. Quah


    BTW - There is no slippage with this system. All orders are limit orders, period.
    #27     Sep 11, 2002
  8. I do not feed every day the tradestation with data. This result are historical results last year and 300 days back.
    #28     Sep 11, 2002
  9. Quah


    If you can't see the trades the backtesting system is making - how can you tell that it is following the system?
    #29     Sep 11, 2002
  10. Quah this is a very unique approach to the market! You are definately thinking "outside the box" with this one...

    I am a little confused though; Are you not just simply making random entries or am I missing something? How are the fib time intervals providing you with any kind of an edge?

    Thanks in advance for answering my questions :)

    PEACE and good trading,
    #30     Sep 11, 2002
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