Something very simplistic

Discussion in 'Journals' started by Quah, Sep 11, 2002.

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  1. Quah


    Exactly. This type of system forces a exact discipline. It also had other benefits - if you know exactly when you are going to make a trade you can be off doing something else and not worry about missing signals that could happen at any time. You know up front exactly what the possible outcomes are.
    #41     Sep 11, 2002
  2. Quah,

    I must still be missing something, please bear with me for I can be pretty slow sometimes :eek:

    If you are taking gains less then 1to1 then how could this method be profitable if the entry is not drasticlaly putting the probability of a winner in your favor???? What is it about entering at those specific Fib time intervals that is providing this???

    PEACE and good trading,
    #42     Sep 11, 2002
  3. Sounds more like Colombo than Commisso :D
    #43     Sep 11, 2002
  4. :D :D :D I am just very curious!
    #44     Sep 11, 2002
  5. Quah


    I'm not saying entering at those times IS NOT putting the probability of a winner in my favor. It seems that it does, but I can't tell you why it does because I don't know why. And if it does, it does, no matter if I can explain it or not. :)

    Lets say I have two indicators - one being those times and the other being "Indicator A".

    Let's say if "Indicator A" is above 80 that is a long signal, if it is below 20 it is a short signal. And when I look through a day those signals (for example) are only correct, say, 40% of the time.

    But then I come along and look at "Indicator A" only at those specific times and notice that it is correct 95% of the time if you use it only at those times (hypothetical situation here).

    Given that situation, I couldn't really give any reason why "Indicator A" seems to work well at those specific times. There may be other times that "Indicator A" works just as well - but why look for those? At that point I've satisfied the requirements of my system.
    #45     Sep 11, 2002
  6. Why not just get your dog to make the trades? That way you don't have to do anything. And dogs are very intuitive.
    #46     Sep 11, 2002
  7. Quah


    If I had a dog, and if the dog could trade in a way that gives me what I'm looking for, I'd be all for it. Why not? :D
    #47     Sep 11, 2002
  8. AAA, was that a dig at me? :mad: :mad: :mad:
    #48     Sep 11, 2002
  9. nkhoi


    a fib. time series counting method, I guess the next step is to decide when to start the counting

    edit: re-draw as suggest (3 posts down)

    edit: I get it right the first time but people can count bar and draw their own conclusion :eek:
    #49     Sep 11, 2002
  10. QUAH.... I think you are correct in ignoring backtesting and I also agree if the numbers "work" in real time it isnt necessary to know why.
    #50     Sep 11, 2002
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