Sorry doom and gloomers. The real estate market is hot in California.

Discussion in 'Economics' started by Free Thinker, Oct 6, 2009.

  1. bgp

    bgp

    some of you guys who really think this R.E. market has turned the corner better have your head examined. these are nothing more than up ticks in a BIG BEAR MARKET.

    bp :mad:
     
    #141     Dec 21, 2009
  2. I've lived in Southern California all my life and I'm old enough to remember the last real estate crash in the late 1980's. It took 7 years for the market to recover. Those who believe this crash is over are in for an unpleasant surprise. Prices will probably go down another 20-30% before we find the bottom.
     
    #142     Dec 21, 2009
  3. bgp

    bgp

    TOMDAVIS you are an exception. i think the foolish ones are probably just out of diapers.:)

    bp
     
    #143     Dec 21, 2009
  4. new$

    new$

  5. jem

    jem

    Well I have about 5-10 short sale listings at 500,000 and under. They have been looking for buyers for a couple of week now. That was unheard of for the last six months.

    So I can guarantee you one thing - it is slowing down hard since thanksgiving. (However, it could be seasonal but I sense otherwise. )

    Also I am far from the only person with a bunch of listings to notice this.

    On a side note -

    there are 427 active listings in Rancho Sante Fe (that is an amazing large percent). A bunch more in foreclosure which are not listed. Plus, I know there are others who are hoping for loan mods or deed in lieu.

    There are roads where every third or every other house is for sale. ( like florida was just before the collapse)

    If you wish to pick up some of the prestigious land in america now is your chance to step up and stick your hand in the fire and make low ball offers. You might get it cheap. My dads friend picked up 2 homes - half price - in la jolla by spraying out 50% offers during the last meltdown. However please do not think I am saying we won't go down further. I think the high end is going to collapse hard and it will compress all the houses below it.

    But the low end may be pretty close to stable going forward.
     
    #145     Dec 21, 2009
  6. I'm so damm tired of hearing stable. Is down 40%-50% and stable but not reskying good? the stock mkt is priced for one of the greatest booms in us history not stable but down 50%. show me 50% rev growth in s@p co's and 30% increase in home prices in 2010. other than that we're still in a bubble.
     
    #146     Dec 21, 2009
  7. bgp

    bgp

    i like to hear what merideth whitney has to say about the economy. she has common sense with brains. she is as bearish as she was in 2007. if it wasn't for the trillion $ stimulus this market would not have came up for a breather. there is nothing else to propel this market up. the average consumer (70% of economy) ) is spent. oh, but we will spend our way out of depression?? sure , and the government can put out fires with fire.

    :confused:

    bp
     
    #147     Dec 21, 2009
  8. trendy

    trendy

    Do you use the same rigorous analysis in your trading?
     
    #148     Dec 21, 2009
  9. bgp

    bgp

    trendy how old are you ?? 24? 28? i bet you are. you're too young to know any better.

    bp
     
    #149     Dec 22, 2009
  10. S2007S

    S2007S

    Everyone thinks the turnaround will be as long as the the one in the late 80's, some think even shorter, I can tell you that this will be twice as long as the recovery from the late 80's. I'm sure some areas will feel like they are fully recovering from the housing collapse but it will be short lived, once interest rates move up, tax credits disappear and reality sets in, housing prices will be flat to down. All the intervention pushed through to support housing prices is the worst thing they could have done, housing prices without this $8000 tax credit would be 15% lower, housing prices without any support or intervention from the government would have house prices down right approx 25%-35% by now. I have seen some houses near me that haven't sold in 6+ months reduce prices as much as 15%-20%. Once stimulus is pulled from the system and the fed finally lets go of its easy money policies than just maybe will see the real economy taking shape.
     
    #150     Dec 22, 2009