SOY - COT Analysis

Discussion in 'Commodity Futures' started by Fonz, Jul 1, 2016.

  1. Fonz


    At 8:31 CST today I shorted the SOY (SU16), because of the following analysis:
    - The COT Index was at 0 for 5 weeks and now is still at 1
    - The Commercials are really short
    - The Big players just stopped adding long positions
    - CTAs are mostly neutral now (after big gains on trend following systems)

    From agrimoney:
    "Managed money, a proxy for speculators, cut its net long position in futures and options in the top 13 US-traded agricultural commodities, from corn to hogs, by more than 60,000 contracts in the week to last Tuesday, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulator.
    That represented the first cut in a month in the net long - the extent to which long positions, which profit when values rise, exceed short bets, which benefit when prices fall.
    And it was accompanied by a sharp drop in open interest –the number of live contracts - of nearly 200,000 contracts to 1.43m lots, implying a reversal of the inflows which had marked the sector, with enhanced weather concerns, and soft returns from equities, driving extra cash into agricultural commodities."

    Even if statistically I am short to early (about 3 weeks), I think that after this big trend and big gains, the Professionals will help a lot by being stopped.

    Would you still be long?
  2. Fonz


    Entry at 1153.75 & Stop at 1225.
  3. So your risking 3500/ contract where is your profit target ?
  4. Fonz


    I never have any profit target with this kind of trade.
    Exit plan:
    - Stop at 1225
    - Stop at 1150 when a close is at or lower than 1080
    - Depending on news and COT, area of possible exit at 1080, 1042, 1028 and 930.
  5. The two things I always have in my mind with grains are weather and exports. I'm frequently in W/C and S/C spreads. Ending stocks/ usage ratio etc.
  6. Nice trade !
  7. Fonz


    So far...
    Stop at 1150. Risk free now.
  8. WASDE tomorrow looking for big soy move !
  9. Fonz


    " Corn and soybeans markets were bullish Wednesday following USDA’s report, but weather is now the driving force, according to Pro Farmer Editor Brian Grete."
    From Agweb.

    I had other reasons to get in the trade and the driving forces are the same than 15 days ago. The next COT report will be very interesting.
    Autospreader likes this.
  10. I was short with you and stopped out prior to the move above 1075. Looking to re short
    #10     Jul 14, 2016