IMO the Dow will be the strongest index going forward. As window dressing it will disguise the extent of the carnage in the small-mid caps. ES will be below 1300 by November opex. Below 1260 by December opex.
To my close friend Pabst, where did u get an idea to do a thread like this Good luck to you, I hope you are correct. If you are right, you beat me to seeing a technical top here. If anyone can do it, it's you. ps watch out for the fungus of ET on these calls. Iif you're right, their still out for blood. and if you're wrong, fugget about it.
So, I am hearing sensible people saying we're entering a long-term, secular bear market, right? I've been hearing and reading this opinion more and more lately, and from a wide array of respectable gurus. I still say no one can predict the future of the markets. It's not possible. But I appreciate the perspectives.
i luv when someone asks for advice or if there is a general question or topic here on ET. it reminds me when the greatest american hero would dude yell out shazaam and the wise men would appear spewing advice. most of these cats posting here don't know jack about squat. just my honest opinion. the shack
Pabst, starting tomorrow your "top" theory will be tested. I'm rather skeptical, but there is a chance it won't go too high over the next few trading days. -Raystonn
I have been waiting since friggin Sept. 15th for the market to start falling! heck, I've been waiting since mid Aug. Even though my current trading positions are hoping for a fall in SPX over the next 2 weeks, I'm not holding my breath. People are defaulting on their mortgages or unable to sell their crappy homes that they went massively into debt buying. The economy is, in general, pretty crappy right now and on a downturn. All of our money is being sucked into the Iraq War. But none of this matters. The SPX and the Dow all seem to think that this is the greatest time since the dot com boom. Somehow, the market continues to defy "logic" and move higher. At this rate, SPX will be at 1370 or higher and will just keep going higher since however decides the market has decided that not having inflation and being in an economic downturn is the same or better than the dot com boom. i predict SPX @ 1370 by mid-Oct and me closing out my Oct./Nov. put diagonal for a loss
This is just s suckers rally to let the big longs make their exits and reduce their exposure. Right now, the talking heads on cnbc and other forms of media (mags, etc) are pumping the market, all time dow highs. Public doesn't care that Dow highs are attributable to a minority of the stocks in that index, or that the index is weighted. Ever thought about how easy it is to manipulate the Dow? Look at the numbers less than half of the stocks are actually near their highs. The numbers are pretty blatant. Anyway, the key is whether the financial mafia can convince the public to race in and jump on another stock market bubble-rally. If they can, then we'll rally to new all time highs and then collapse when the housing and gdp numbers start crapping out. Of course, Pabst could be right and things really are as bad as some of us think they are and things really are happening right now in October and this is the beginning of the first downturn in a secular bear market and even the financial mafia along with their incumbent friends can't stop it... I myself have been waiting for the fourth quarter for months. these next two quarters will see alot of shit hitting the fan. as roubini says - the only thing that's going to be orderly about the housing bust and the coming recession will be the undertakers carrying the coffins