SPY, XLF, IYT - charts indicate that the Bottom is IN!

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by option_trad3r, Mar 29, 2009.

  1. plan

    plan

    Charts mean $hit when fundies break down. Right now the bet is that the Fed intervention is going to work. If it does then yes bottom is in, if it doesn't then no, new lows coming.
     
    #21     Apr 10, 2009
  2. aresky

    aresky

    S&P500
    downtrend violated to the upside
     
    #22     Apr 11, 2009
  3. As a setup for what? A one year bear market?
     
    #23     Apr 11, 2009
  4. Yes, most pros trade support and resistance lines. Losers come up with metrics to justify buying in an over-valued market.
     
    #24     Apr 11, 2009
  5. I think, you should explain 0.19 times "book value" in detail...especially BAC´s...
     
    #25     Apr 12, 2009
  6. You may the jumping the gun a little here; that's not a very convincing violation - not yet, anyway. We'll see how it goes this week what with all those earnings reports coming out.
     
    #26     Apr 12, 2009
  7. 1) yes the government rushed in to buy stocks because they were so "cheap", not because the entire fucking system was about to crash.

    2) yes still go by the "book" value of those mark to market banks and try to sound intelligent by exclaiming how under valued they are based on book value.

    3) your first sentence is very appropriate. Look in the mirror and say to yourself "Do people really trade with this nonsense? Unbelievable. "
     
    #27     Apr 12, 2009
  8. piezoe

    piezoe

    For the record: as of today i have the S&P intermediate-up trendline thru (3/6,666.79; 4/8, 814.84). I have strong resistance at 875, the Feb High. I will be exiting some long positions either at 875 (or there abouts) or on a confirmed trendline break.
     
    #28     Apr 13, 2009
  9. Book value per share on BAC is greater than $20. Look up how to calculate book value and you'll get the same answer.
     
    #29     Apr 13, 2009
  10. Same answer. Go calculate book value. I'll give you a hint: Assets-Liabilities over shares outstanding. It's greater than $20, when historic price to book rates are greater than 1.5 to 1. Easy answer. You should draw the same conclusions, or you know nothing about analysis.

    Current market median Price to Book Ratio is 0.9 to 1. Meaning you could buy the entire market at its current price and keep the 1/.9 percentage profit for yourself. This implies bears don't have a reasonable and adequate basis on a valuation perspecitive.

    I'll tell you , one of these days I expect Meredith Whitney to comment about this. She'll say something like, "But they're going to keep charging off assets directly to their equity." Well, why, then, is BAC posting a quarterly profit?

    Either way, current Price to Book on BAC is 0.32, means book values is 32% of the current price. This is plain and stupid a retarded valuation of the market. Value will lead the charge upward, and a very simple filter right now will be those with the stupidest (ie:lowest) price to book values with profitable annual and quarterly earnings. This is essentially the future market not counting the few that will fail (ie:those that are still unprofitable at least on a quarterly basis).
     
    #30     Apr 13, 2009