The VIX was at 50 and now it is at 40, the term structure hasn't reverted back. The VIX at 40 is not sustainable but we know volatility clusters so of course more spikes could still come. I re-positioned into AI bets that I had missed out on. Yesterday afternoon was the best afternoon I have ever had. It is really a question of the bond market. I had bets on the two year exactly for this situation that did absolutely nothing. I liquidated those and bought equities. Bessent seems to have said he is trying to engineer a cooling off of the economy to bring rates down in order to ease the pain of the upcoming maturity wall. The lack of flight to safety in treasuries is pretty shocking. I would think that is bullish for equities in the short/mid term but we are going to smash head first into the maturity wall. Seems pretty bad but things aren't going to ever seem good with the VIX at 40. MOVE didn't really do that much given what happened in bonds. The main bet here for me is this the LTCM moment of the AI bubble. In 1998 , that was ultimately a great entry point to long the dot com bubble. We are still over priced by any measure though. 40% equities / 60% 1 month T-bills seems right to me here to play the next leg up of the AI bubble.
Improvement is years away. Markets are broken. Earnings will be cut and some companies this quarter will be staying away from guidance since the uncertainty is too great ... This will be one of the longest bear markets in history
Next War could be currency war, bond war, cyber war .... The last currency war waged by the US was in 2008. Please don't start a physical war.
Its hard to hone your trading skills when there is an inside manipulation factor. Many traders are now trading Gold and the Bond Market. These two markets are now ignoring the white house completely. As the boy who cried wolf...the equity markets may also begin to ignore the white and its inside media posts (other than some options casino players). Long term retail is probably out of the equity markets and sitting on the sideline until clarity. The gold and bond markets are signalling crazy times for currency markets..among other things. And the gold and bond markets are trading much cleaner and much more about the reality of whats happening economically. The white house inside media posts seem to be more about politics and political investing. Gold, the Bond markets and Currency markets are about the actual economic reality and economic forward thinking.
It amuses me because I had the revelation from reading Wallstreet Bets on Sunday night that after a certain level on the VIX, things become limbic at the collective. It is so not fair if I am using all my faculties while you are a slave to the limbic system. From reading your nonsense, it is not hard to figure out you don't trade at all because you have no money. Are you just that bored with your life? It doesn't really make sense why you would even bother with trading. Please keep posting though because you are slightly less stupid version of Wallstreet Bets.
What was the USD collapse about today? Is it just a rebuke of Trump nonsense or is it tied to the rising 10 year?
Yes, the inside story is that the Bond Market gave Donny no choice. ...of course he was meeting with Penske that day. The Captain did invite him to the Indy 500. Donny was at Daytona this year. In case you don't know, Roger owns the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Co inky dink?