I am going to be the contrarian here. The S&P may, may hit 1200 again, but that is about it. I actually don't believe we are in a Bear market. Ok Ok yes the numbers show it. BUT there is something new here. People are shorting the f**k out of everything. Companies like GM had no more shares to short meaning that shorters are in full force. What also is interesting is that while Microsoft and Google missed earnings they did not miss revenue. That is not a bear market in my opinion. That is a slow down. And finally think of the valuation of Microsoft right now. It is historical low, so are you going to keep beating it down?
Well, we can argue semantics all you want, but there are pretty clear definitions of bear market out there based on objective numbers, and we hit those numbers. So by that definition, we are indeed in a bear market. Now the question is, is this going to be a shallow weak bear market? An average bear market. Or worse than average bear market. My over all impression of the markets is that this will at least be an average bear market. Too many negative things have lined up all at once. Credit crisis, home bubble popping, recession, inflation, Iraq, Iran, et all
@christianhgross I guess that means the worst is yet to come, or this week was the worst but this is how I see it; it is reasonable to short for the short term because the credit crisis has not come to an end, but for long term trading it is safe and best to buy, inevitable high inflation rates will push the prices including stock prices to higher levels, I have no doubts that we are going to see more inflation because there is no other way out of this crisis
Given how much oil is down and how oversold we were and how one sided sentiment was is this really all the bounce that can be mustered. How much of this weeks buying was option sellers trying to make/keep a buck? Doesn't look like the nas even broke its down trend channel and the SP could easily give us a failed breakout from current levels. I am still skeptical of this rally here.
I think focusing on the stock market indices will only give a partial picture. The current scenario we are seeing is sort of reminiscent of the 1970s with inflation a potential problem and commodities going up. There is dramatic damage being done to the currency value that is not recorded.
When we get two quarters of negative growth, i'll be the first on my soapbox screaming bear market. However, until then I won't pretend i'm running for office and use scare tactics to get elected. Just appreciate the market volatility and your skiills to capitalize on any opportunities that come your way. peace