I know right....what's this BS about the all knowing market. the market is controlled by PEOPLE. People who can be wrong and usually are.
And you are telling me to do a lil' study? LOL. You know nothing about China's economy and trade. If you had really studied the era of the great depression you would have known that it was in the 30's when comms (ags and metals) plummeted because of a serious recession globally and noone was importing FROM the US. Up until Ap/May 1930 things were still holding up reasonably well and the Dow was down 12% from peak. Then, the realization came. The present global situation is nothing like what it was in the 30's although there are some similarities with that period (like how the government is responding).
94% of mortages are current. 6% past due. Up from 2% Yes, foreclosures are up 200-300% That creates a whole lot more paperwork. Those departments were very small untill last year now they need a lot more prople. over 90& is very good.
They paid for the tab. I'm just telling you that I've never heard more depressing, yet credible information. I know these guys. They're competent, and they have their fingers on the pulse, everyday. They're making a ton of money, but making a ton of money isn't so great when you have to work weekends every week. Someone mentioned non-conforming loans as a %. Fair point. Let me just say it's rising dramatically, and that many commercial loans are resetting at higher interest rates. I'm talking large loans.
Yeah, you do that you ninny... What wealth is this you are talking about? America is broke... Any money we have is either borrowed or printed. Services ARE NOT PRODUCTION... All the money that people sucked out of their homes has been spent. Now these misconceived golden geese are just bricks and mortar, and have become the average person's biggest liability. $80 billion dollars A MONTH... Wake up...the consumer is dead. Capitalism has been exported to China..
Clueless... the 30's depression was deflationary... this one won't be.. Fuck Japan in the 90's and the US in the 30's.... Study up Argentina and Weimar Germany... When the US Dollar shits all over itself after the Chinese depeg, the Chinese will become far wealthier while Americans get poorer and poorer. You think they want to ship all their goods over here for our worthless paper dollars? They'd rather consume them themselves. A sharp correction in currency and rising interest rates over the next few years, and the millions of lost American consumers will be replaced by TEN TIMES as many in Asia.
I doubt very seriously that comercial loans are being re-set at a higher rate, LOL.....do you really think the lender wants to force the owner into foreclosure.....get a grip.... I went through the Texas depression of the 80's...this is nothing...Texas lost every bank....repeat: EVERY bank...closed/forced merger...every real estate developer went under....the famous "see through" office buildings....emply shopping centers converted to mini-storage facilities.... As someone said...95% of mortgages current....low unemployment...low interest rates.....most problems in certain geographical areas that were severely over built and over hyped...Las Vegas for instance.... Could we bump along on the bottom for a while?...sure...may take longer than everyone thinks....could be more write downs...sure....end of the known world??? No But some areas will have long term decline because of jobs moving out....some parts of midwest is an example...but corn farmers doing OK.... SteveD
Check this stat out and let me know if it's wrong: In 2000, 5.8% of commercial real estate loans were 'interest only.' In 2005, 57% of commercial real estate loans were 'interest only.' Those loans do not remain interest only forever. They have reset periods whereby principal has to start to be repaid. Everything is fine and well as long as the tenants are paying the rent, and the value of the building is stable or appreciating, and the building owner can keep rents stable, or better yet, raise them. Now, reverse all those factors.