The Darkest Storm is About to Descend - You Can't Imagine the Carnage

Discussion in 'Economics' started by ByLoSellHi, Jul 22, 2008.

  1. you probably blew out 5 accounts between 2004 and 2008
    #361     Jan 21, 2009

  2. Much more downside to come. Americans are still in denial, and think we'll have a typical recovery, and that they just need to 'hang in there.'

    The sad reality is Japan 2.0 HAS visited us, and the sequel is going to be far worse than the original flick, given the insane levels of leverage and debt utilized by both consumers and businesses...

    We are living amidst the biggest asset bubble meltdown in the history of the world.
    #362     Jan 31, 2009
  3. #363     Jan 31, 2009
  4. By the way, my comments are based on additional, extensive conversations with both of the people I referenced in my original post.

    One was a senior associate, and is now a partner (non-equity) at a major law firm (more than 550 attorneys; he works out of their Miami office). He has a huge caseload of commercial RE 'workouts,' as banks are on the fence about what to do with major league debtors on their commercial/office properties.

    The foreclosures keep building, like water behind a massive dam. The foreclosure rates you see being reported are a fraction of what is in 'de facto' delinquency, as the banks don't even want the properties back right now as they'll have to pay taxes, insurance, utilities, maintenance cost, etc., and not be able to sell properties that even their best appraisers are having difficulty valuing.

    Also, the employment market is much worse than what you are all being told. The big law firms are making major structural shifts to grow their 'employment law' practice areas as people being laid off increasingly file lawsuits against their former employers.

    We have only had a slight taste of this slowdown so far. There's far worse to come.
    #364     Jan 31, 2009
  5. Mvic


    Not to mention the fact that they are desperate to keep additional losses off the books, especially with the TARP blocked. That's why we are seeing loan mods of 1% IO on properties that are couple $100K under water, anything to keep from having to books a loss on a foreclosure. The really big dam that is about to break is the jumbo prime segment and it will dwarf the losses from prime and sub prime.

    I was expecting a rally on the stimulus and a potential US bank o' trash type bailout but we didn't get it in part because the stimulus is so weak and the bank of trash idea is unlikely to be that favorable to the banks as congress is not in the mood to pay over the odds for their bad assets.

    ByLo is right, as bad as things currently seem they are going to get much much worse this year. The lows are not going to hold.
    #365     Jan 31, 2009
  6. Don't forget the commercial property loan defaults around the I keep saying....."Stay SHORT, and Stay OFTEN!" :eek:
    #366     Jan 31, 2009
  7. capmac



    12 pct. are behind on mortgage or in foreclosure

    Thursday March 5, 10:14 am ET

    Survey shows nearly 12 pct. of mortgage holders are behind on their payments or in foreclosure

    NEW YORK (AP) -- An industry survey shows a record 5.4 million American homeowners with a mortgage, or nearly 12 percent, were either behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of last year.

    The Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday the percentage of loans at least a month overdue or in foreclosure was up from 10 percent in the July-September quarter and up from about 8 percent a year earlier.

    The sharpest increases in loans 90-days past due were in Louisiana, New York, Georgia, Texas and Mississippi, reflecting a spreading recession and massive job losses nationwide.

    The report also showed the delinquency rates for fixed-rate mortgages climbed in the fourth quarter, another sign that layoffs are taking a toll on homeowners.
    #367     Mar 5, 2009
  8. the more i read things like this, the more i realize the bottom is near. fear mongering.
    #368     Mar 5, 2009
  9. That was written 9 months ago - are you actually serious?

    Good call, huh?

    And keep catching those falling knives.
    #369     Mar 5, 2009
  10. ElCubano


    imagine him going long back then.,... :p
    #370     Mar 5, 2009