Yep. And it will be the same case with this damned COVID, once we get the vaccines out across the world. No way. A and B are still primarily the ones we get vaccinated for. Need to worry about running out of letters for the serotypes of Flu A!
There are only three "types" A, B and the more rare C. Inside those a lot of mutants. Back around 2001 my eldest uncle in England passed away from flu on Boxing day. The doctor explained to his daughter and I why that year the vaccination for the strain expected was picked wrong. Worth understanding, viruses are as different as flies and fish, elephants and tiny frogs but like what we call cancer they seem to elude most people as something they don't want to think about / somebody else's problem. I'll admit I had never thought much about flu being a great reaper. He had just started to tell me about his younger days work. He had been lightly involved in the British project "Tube alloys" which kickstarted the US Manhattin project, he knew Niels Bohr a bit (he spoke a little Danish) and was present at the first British H bomb test which gave him and most of his Navy buddies skin cancers later in life. All those memories lost, like tears in rain Fucking flu.
You do Rutger Hauer proud. Don't mess with the vaccines people. Case in point is right there above! Get them!
@Overnight "You do Rutger Hauer proud." (Some glitch where the board keeps adding nested quotes to many posts sorry forcing me to delete some.) I tried to get an extra part in either Blade runner 2049 or the 2036:Nexus Dawn short prequel. I nearly wore out the VHS tape of the original as a kid. Vaccines are great.
How many times did you give GWB a like when he was us all his wrong bullshit about there being no herd immunity. Its not that I had to be correct... for that matter its still to early to say we do get herd immunity for sure. But... if you were really smart enough to be challenging the narrative...(and I believe you are) Why did you act like an fantastically wrong douche, every chance you had, whether it was on this thread or the Sweden thread.
You didn't even know what herd immunity was Jem. You should go back to using your TJustice handle, it was more entertaining.
you lying douche... I remember when you made that claim ... you lied or misrepresented what i had actually written.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/na...y/news-story/cf019113ea52916f64a16dcad96095a8 Oxford epidemiologist pushes herd immunity One of the world’s top epidemiologists has urged Australia to abandon a lockdown strategy against coronavirus and look to the Swedish model of developing herd immunity. Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology in the Department of Zoology at the University of Oxford, says Australia is adopting a “selfish’’ and “self-congratulatory’’ approach which is misguided and will have negative long-term consequences and urged the country to look at the latest evidence to decide its tactics. She said if the Australian government changed its approach and let the virus — which 80 to 90 per cent of the population will only get asymptomatically — spread naturally, with intense protections for those most vulnerable, it would in the long term help protect all of Australians from future viral threats and also avoid the most damaging short-term economic impacts for the underprivileged. The most recent scientific research shows that between 30 and 81 per cent of the population has natural immunity to coronavirus because the body’s T-cells recognise the threat from having had other cold and flu viruses. Scientists believe having coronavirus causes people’s immune systems to develop antibodies and T-cell responses to future viruses. Professor Gupta said: “One of the reasons I am not worried about this virus is a running theme in research work is how previous exposure to viruses protects you from incoming threats.” She warned that suppression of the virus did not work and lockdown simply resulted in some parts of the population being more exposed to the virus when it next flared up. She said: “There is no way lockdown can eliminate the virus … and so it’s not at all surprising once you lift lockdown in areas it will flare up again. That is what we are seeing in the southern United States, and in Australia. In places where it has already swept through, a proportion of people are immune and you are not seeing it come back.’’ She said instead of lockdowns, governments should focus energies on shielding the elderly and those with comorbidities to protect them as much as possible. Professor Gupta said countries that had closed off borders were not only ensuring populations remained exposed to the virus at some point, but long term it was unsustainable. “You can only lock down for so long unless you choose to be in isolation for eternity so that’s not a good solution,’’ she said. She said Australia may think it is an effective short-term strategy but there were long-term consequences. “Being self-congratulatory, ‘we have kept it out’, is misplaced, I think.’’ Professor Gupta said Sweden’s measured social-distancing approach had offered greater protections for the entire region because Scandinavia now had high levels of immunity. Professor Gupta said the Swedes “have done quite well in terms of deaths’’. She said Denmark and Norway, which locked down and have had lower death rates, may yet find the next wave difficult.
So this model shows that a population may reach natural HIT (herd immunity threshold) once 20 percent of the population is immune...(or at least at much lower levels than with vaccine immunity. ) https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.27.20081893v3.full.pdf The herd immunity threshold Individual variation in risk of acquiring infection is under selection by the force of infection, whether individual differences are due to biological susceptibility, physical exposure, or a 10 combination of the two traits. Selection results in the removal of the most at-risk individuals from the susceptible pool as they become infected and eventually recover (some die). This selective acquisition of infection and immunity results simultaneously in decelerated epidemic growth and accelerated induction of immunity in the population. The herd immunity threshold (HIT) defines the percentage of the population that needs to be immune to reverse epidemic 15 growth and prevent future waves. Figure 3 shows the expected downward trends in the HIT for SARS-CoV-2 as the coefficients of variation of the gamma distributed susceptibility or exposure are increased between 0 and 4 (to assess robustness to changing the type of distribution see Figure S22 for equivalent plots with lognormal distributions). While herd immunity is expected to require 60-70% of a homogeneous population to be immune given an �! between 2.5 and 3, 20 these percentages drop to the range 10-20% for CVs between 2 and 4. Therefore, a critically important question is: how variable are humans in their susceptibility and exposure to SARSCoV-2? Hitherto, there is no definite answer to this question. ... Discussion The concept of herd immunity is most commonly used in the design of vaccination programs (12, 13). Defining the percentage of the population that must be immune to cause infection incidences to decline, herd immunity thresholds constitute convenient targets for vaccination coverage. In 25 idealized scenarios of vaccines delivered at random and individuals mixing at random, herd immunity thresholds are given by a simple formula (1 − 1⁄�!) which, in the case of SARSCoV-2, suggests that 60-70% of the population would need be immunized to halt spread considering estimates of �! between 2.5 and 3. A crucial caveat in exporting these calculations to immunization by natural infection is that natural infection does not occur at random. 30 Individuals who are more susceptible or more exposed are more prone to be infected and become immune, which lowers the threshold (14). In our model, the herd immunity threshold declines sharply when coefficients of variation increase from 0 to 2 and remains below 20% for more variable populations. The amplitude of the decline depends on what property is heterogeneous and how it is distributed but the downwards trend is robust (Figures 3 and S22)