http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/trumps-incredible-shrinking-map-230135 Trump's incredible shrinking map Six of the 11 battleground states are now in Hillary Clinton's pocket. By Steven Shepard and Charlie Mahtesian 10/21/16 05:01 AM EDT In June, POLITICO identified 11 key battleground states — totaling 146 electoral votes — that would effectively decide the presidential election in November. A new examination of polling data and strategic campaign ad buys indicates that six of those 11 are now comfortably in Hillary Clinton’s column. Clinton leads Donald Trump by 5 points or greater in POLITICO’s Battleground States polling average in Colorado, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. If the Democratic nominee won those six states, plus all the other reliably Democratic states President Barack Obama captured in both 2008 and 2012, she would eclipse the 270-electoral-vote threshold and win the presidency. Even if Trump ran the table in the remaining battleground states — Florida, Iowa, Nevada, North Carolina and Ohio — he would fall short of the White House if he cannot flip another state where Clinton currently leads in the polls. The six states where Clinton is currently comfortably ahead show all the hallmarks of swing states that have faded from contention. And Michigan, a borderline battleground state last won by Republicans in 1988, appears the farthest out of reach for Trump. The Democratic nominee has been ahead in every public poll in the state since the July convention, with the last four surveys indicating a double-digit lead. The Clinton campaign has never even bothered to go up on the air in Michigan — and other than a brief flight in early September, neither has Trump’s campaign. Pennsylvania, which has moved in tandem with Michigan in every presidential election since 1980, is close to a must-win state for Trump: It is difficult to conceive of an electoral map without Pennsylvania that delivers Trump the presidency. And the Republican is set to spend $4.5 million for advertising over the final four weeks of the campaign there. But the polling strongly suggests the GOP will again fall short: Clinton leads by 7.2 points in the polling average there. Of the 30 polls conducted in Pennsylvania since June, Trump has led in just one of them — a survey conducted in early July. At the heart of Trump’s problem is a large deficit in the populous Philadelphia suburbs, where Republican candidates need a muscular performance to help overcome the massive Democratic margins that are typically delivered by the city of Philadelphia. The pro-Clinton super PAC Priorities USA Action is now shifting its resources to the Senate race, airing television ads attacking the state’s vulnerable Republican senator: Pat Toomey, who faces a tough challenge from Democrat Katie McGinty. Virginia had voted Republican in nine straight presidential elections before Obama won it in 2008 and then again in 2012. But the commonwealth — with large percentages of minority and college-educated-white voters – is now firmly in Clinton’s column. Clinton leads by 11.6 points in the polling average in a state where Democrats won every statewide election in 2012, 2013, and 2014 — and she hasn’t spent money on advertising in the state in months. Trump insists he hasn’t given up on Virginia, despite published reports, and he’s set to spend $1.6 million there in the final four weeks of the race. Wisconsin and Colorado are likely off the board, as well. Clinton leads by 6.2 points in POLITICO’s average of Colorado polling, and while Clinton and campaign surrogates have visited the state in recent weeks, the campaign hasn’t seen the need to spend money on paid advertising there since July. Clinton has never advertised in Wisconsin either, though she has made appearances. Trump is set to spend $1.8 million over the next four weeks in Wisconsin, but it’s a long shot -- he’s trailed Clinton in more than a dozen public polls conducted there dating back to July. And he didn’t help himself in a state that notably rejected him in the Republican primary by attacking the state GOP’s favorite son, Paul Ryan, after the House Speaker disinvited him from a recent event. The polls in Wisconsin are closer than in some other states, owing in large part to Wisconsin’s large working-class-white population. But Clinton leads by 5 points in the average, and Trump is running well behind Mitt Romney’s performance in the Republican suburbs of Milwaukee that are essential to a Republican candidate running statewide. New Hampshire is probably the most competitive of the states in Clinton’s column: The Democrat leads by 6.6 points in the polling average, but that’s accentuated by a University of New Hampshire poll released Wednesday showing Clinton with a 15-point lead. Still, while both Clinton and Trump are competing for the state’s four electoral votes, Priorities USA Action has shifted its resources to the Senate race, airing television ads attacking incumbent GOP Sen. Kelly Ayotte. Ayotte is locked in a head-to-head race with Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan – and, unlike in the Electoral College, New Hampshire has as much value in the battle for the Senate as a more populous state like Florida. With six states now out of reach, there are five traditional battlegrounds still firmly in play. There’s one problem, though: those states alone wouldn’t provide enough electoral votes for Trump to overtake Clinton. Iowa leans toward Trump: He has a 4.8-point lead in the polling average, and is better organized there than nearly anywhere else thanks to buy-in from the state’s Republican Party establishment. But both campaigns are actively contesting the state. Trump has a slimmer advantage in Ohio: He leads by 1.2 points in the POLITICO average, and a Suffolk University poll conducted this week prior to the final debate showed a tied race. But Clinton has the edge in the other three states. The former secretary of state has a 3.4-point lead in Florida — the largest and most heavily contested swing state. That’s similar to Clinton’s 3.6-point leads in both Nevada and North Carolina, two states that have remained stubbornly close. With Clinton pulling away from Trump nationally in recent weeks, that has also brought a number of non-swing states into play. Polls this week in Georgia and Arizona give Clinton slight leads, though neither state has voted Democratic since the 1990s. Clinton and her allies sense opportunities there: Clinton’s campaign is launching television ads in Arizona, and Priorities USA Action is targeting Georgia. Clinton could also challenge for one of Nebraska’s three congressional districts: the Omaha-based Second District, which Obama won in his decisive 2008 victory but lost in the closer 2012 race. But Trump’s chances of pick off an electoral vote in Maine are far better than Clinton’s odds of picking up an electoral vote out of Nebraska. Maine’s two congressional districts have never voted for different candidates since it’s current system was established in the 1970s. Yet in Maine’s more rural Second District, Trump’s strength is undeniable -- while there isn’t much reliable polling available there, in the three surveys that have been conducted since September Trump has had the lead in each of them. But perhaps the most unlikely competitive state is Utah, which has only voted for a Democrat for president once since the 1940s. Mormon voters are chafing at Trump, who is overwhelmingly unpopular there despite the state’s Republican orientation. Rigorous polling is sparse, but there are indications that support is building for Evan McMullin, a former House GOP staffer and Brigham Young alumnus running as an independent. The race in Utah could come down to a three-way contest between Trump, Clinton and McMullin — and ceding the six electoral votes there could put the race even more out of reach for Trump.
Clinton is a very weak candidate. The only way she could win, was to have an opponent worst than her in a certain way. I bet the Democrat political machine is working non stop till the election results announcements as they really want Hillary to win. I would not be surprised if the Democrat political machine went through the potential Republican candidates and got their people working in the background, finding political themes that would position Trump as Republican candidate nominee. It is not just enthousisatic and self-declared republicans who chose the president, but all viting Americans AND the "great electors" ( electoral college). And as seasoned as they are, they must know these.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/clinton-far-ahead-electoral-college-race-reuters-ipsos-140547320.html Clinton far ahead in Electoral College race: Reuters/Ipsos poll October 22, 2016 By Maurice Tamman NEW YORK (Reuters) - Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton maintained her commanding lead in the race to win the Electoral College and claim the U.S. presidency, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project results released on Saturday. In the last week, there has been little movement. Clinton leads Donald Trump in most of the states that Trump would need should he have a chance to win the minimum 270 votes needed to win. According to the project, she has a better than 95 percent chance of winning, if the election was held this week. The mostly likely outcome would be 326 votes for Clinton to 212 for Trump. Trump came off his best debate performance of the campaign Wednesday evening but the polling consensus still showed Clinton winning the third and final face-off on prime-time TV. Trump disputes those findings. And some national polls had the race tightening a wee bit this week though others had Clinton maintaining her solid lead. But the project illustrates that the broader picture remains bleak for Trump with 17 days to go until the Nov. 8 election. Trump did gain ground in South Carolina where his slim lead last week expanded to seven points, moving it into his column from a toss-up. Unfortunately for him, he lost ground in Arizona, which is now too close to call. Additionally, he is facing a challenge for Utah’s six Electoral College votes from former CIA operative and Utah native Evan McMullin. The independent candidate is siphoning votes away from Trump in a state that is Republican as any in the nation. In some polls, McMullin is even leading. (The States of the Nation is not polling on McMullin.) Utah, like almost all of the states, is a winner-take-all contest. Clinton has also maintained a lead in Florida and Pennsylvania, which have a combined 49 Electoral College votes. Ohio remains too close to call. According to the project, lower voter turnout generally benefits Trump but his best hope for success is if Republican turnout surges and Democratic turnout is low. To examine these results and other scenarios, go to the States of the Nation project http://www.reuters.com/statesofthenation/ .
First let me say that things are somewhat odd around here in the Raleigh-Durham area. This part of the state typically leans Democratic. However when you travel around local neighborhoods there seem to be many yard signs for Donald Trump and very few for Hillary. This spells bad news for Hillary in our battleground state. Either she has fewer supporters than expected, or the majority of here supporters are not very enthusiastic about her candidacy (which I think is the case due to a number of yards with Democratic signs for state races but none for her). There is also strong Trump support at events such as the State Fair in Raleigh. At State Fair, Trump gets a blue ribbon http://www.newsobserver.com/opinion/op-ed/article109913352.html
Personally I trust polls and the betting markets more than yard sign and state fair support.Republicans are usually far more enthusiastic and outspoken about their candidates than democrats. I think Hillary is taking NC.
NEW ABC POLL,HILLARY + 12 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clin...d-boosted-broad-disapproval/story?id=42993821 Clinton Vaults to a Double-Digit Lead, Boosted by Broad Disapproval of Trump (POLL) Oct 23, 2016, 8:59 AM ET Hillary Clinton has vaulted to a double-digit advantage in the inaugural ABC News 2016 election tracking poll, boosted by broad disapproval of Donald Trump on two controversial issues: His treatment of women and his reluctance to endorse the election’s legitimacy. Likely voters by a vast 69-24 percent disapprove of Trump’s response to questions about his treatment of women. After a series of allegations of past sexual misconduct, the poll finds that some women who’d initially given him the benefit of the doubt have since moved away. See PDF with full results, charts and tables here. Fifty-nine percent of likely voters, moreover, reject Trump’s suggestion that the election is rigged in Clinton’s favor, and more, 65 percent, disapprove of his refusal to say whether he’d accept a Clinton victory as legitimate. Most strongly disapprove, a relatively rare result. All told, Clinton leads Trump by 12 percentage points among likely voters, 50 to 38 percent, in the national survey, her highest support and his lowest to date in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls. Gary Johnson has 5 percent support, Jill Stein 2 percent. The results mark a dramatic shift from Clinton’s +4 points in the last ABC/Post poll Oct. 13. That survey was conducted after disclosure of an 11-year-old videotape in which Trump crudely described his sexual advances toward women, but before the events that have followed: A series of women saying he sexually assaulted them, which Trump has denied; his continued refusal to say whether he’d accept the election’s legitimacy; and the final debate, which likely voters by 52-29 percent say Clinton won.
Me too.I didn't really like her but was going to vote for her just to vote against the republican but after enduring years of republican attacks and kicking Trumps and his supporters asses I have really started to like her.
I will note that in past major elections locally the Democrats in this region were very enthusiastic regarding Obama and had many yard signs. This time even my nearby neighbors who had Obama signs in their yards previously don't have Hillary signs. I will agree that it appears that Hillary is up in the polls in our state, but most of our state-wide battles for governor, senator, etc. here are dead-even with no candidate leading the other by more than two points for several weeks and many polls showing lead changes. I think N.C. could go either way in all of these races as well as in the presidential race.