thank you i therefore would rephrase your quote from "To be totally unable and unwilling to predict what is going to happen next." to "Trader does not know what is going to happen next, but willing and able to predict it nevertheless."
All trading, minute by minute or day by day, is about predicting to a certain degree. Unless one uses a purely random technique like a coin toss to determine when and whether to go long or short.
Daytrading is extra hard imo because it is costly, making the spread is mostly an illusion nowadays and you can't get without brokerage. Oth, it's desirable because the more trades you do the better, ceteris paribus.
No, prediction doesn't come into it at all, its about anticipating what might happen, and being ready to act.
Anticipating lol, WTF do you think predicting is? Anticipating - kept inside your head. Predicting - telling someone else.
Perhaps Kahneman & Tversky got it right: "Man is a deterministic device in a probabilistic universe". Maybe that's the real secret...
It's largely a Western construct. that things can be controlled, hence dams, levees, rerouting rivers etc. Asian wisdom is more aligned with being in synch with what is natural and not fighting and changing it. Similar to being in synch with the markets and not seeing as a mano a mano battle.
Beutiful, thank you, Speedo. I always feel disturbed by these slogans of competition among traders. We are all one herd, courageous, called to make next step in this society that is suffering by greed and othrer money -related symptoms. And the market is a loving ocean, which is embracing the called ones, sometimes with hard lessons. But if one meets himself and flows in the harmony, the market will make unlimited supply.
Hi speedo, that's another very good point. I admit I was thinking more generally about how "the need for certainty" seems to be what drives these threads. In the end, a good entry helps, but it really is what you do once the trade is open that determines success or failure. To me, all the things that get mentioned are just components of a whole trader. No single one of them will do it. You need all of them: - an edge (in entry, risk management, position size, profit taking, et. al.) - patience to wait for the setup, then patience while the trade evolves - calmness when things go wrong (internet outage, unexpected news event, etc.) - discipline to stay with your rules / edge when you're on a losing streak - physical well-being to keep your focus and reactions sharp - mental well-being to be comfortable with the uncertainty and to give you complete acceptance of the risk on the trade you're about to take. - a clear understanding of how the market you are trading actually works - a solid grounding in mob psychology - being comfortable with the timeframes you are trading. Btw, I had to learn that my entry edge wasn't the big money maker, it was all the other ones. Cheers, syntaxfx