TRUMP sez that with a cease-fire, the crisis is over. Every State Department wonk, and every military mind, know how buttfuqued that thought is... • Turkey is a member of NATO -- one that occupies a ferociously strategic piece of real estate, contested as far back as recorded history goes. In 1962, one of the lesser-publicized keys to de-escalating the Cuban Missile Crisis was the U.S. agreement to remove medium range nuclear-armed missiles from Turkish soil. • Turkey has committed genocidal pogrom(s) 3(?) times in just the last 100 years. • Turkey considers Kurdistan (and thus those who identify as Kurds wherever they reside) to be an existential threat, no matter the (lack of) provocation. • As a member of NATO, Turkey recognizes and benefits from Article 5: mutual defense of any NATO member, by ALL NATO members. • Turkey *had* purchased/helped to manufacture a bunch of F-35/parts... https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...8a16be-54b6-11e9-8ef3-fbd41a2ce4d5_story.html • ...and was kicked out of that program because of their purchase of Russian close-theater air defense systems -- complete with Moscovite SCADA to deliver live-time reads of F-35 reflections back to the rodina. • This MASSIVE Erdogan move to turn from Washington/Brussels to Moscow cuts a massive hole right in the middle of NATO, both as an organization and geographically. But it represents HUGE personal victories for the strongmen involved: Erdogan and Putin. Consider where they were just 4 years ago: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shootdown ...and now they're swapping air defense tools? And ground assault comms, methods, and goals? (Vis, this "buffer zone" claimed by Turkey "and assisted by" Russia.) That's a great way to keep NATO battlefield comms secure. NOT. Holy schiezé. • Iran, in the meantime, now has a undisguised path to route fighters and materiel all the way to the Mediterranean, Holy shit. So everywhere that they're involved, just got multiples of speed and surety-wise easier -- an insurgent superhighway was just created, on the backs of the Kurds who fought ISIS and nasty Houssaini/Ruski Syrians. It can't get any worse, right?? BUT IT DOES. At this point, the easy scares are oil, transport, and Islamic extremism. But the MUCH bigger stake is the loss of NATO unity, for every minute that either Erdogan remains in power, or Turkey remains in NATO. • If terror activity identifies Turkish assets are involved, who attacks Turkey? • If Turkey and Russia have a tiff, and Turkey snubs Russia, does NATO get involved with any Russian retaliation? • If US/allied F-35s or F-22s are painted by Russian radar in Turkish hands, and that threat is "kinetically" responded to, ........??? In the meantime, the Mediterranean and Black Seas (where the U.S. Navy has maintained a powerful presence since the close of WW2) JUST GOT a bit smaller, eh... NONE OF THIS IS ANY GOOD, and yet I hear most pundits only getting about 2/3rds of the way through it. Meaning no insult to the Kurds, but this is not about them!!! This is about the cohesiveness of NATO, and the military dissuadement to a World War 3 commencing on the European continent.
Going to be a interesting few years! China and Russia are improving there war tech to compete with USA, USA trying to stay ahead, There likely work together at some stage then that's when WW3 becomes well it'll happen. Games being played, which is what this is to Russia anyway, strategic positioning themselves in key areas and working out who are future allies, testing there weapons, improving there tactics.
Turkey and all countries are MEMBERS of the U.N. U.N. rules and policies have more power than NATO in maintaining peace. The mandate of NATO isn't preventing war. okay. Why anyone like Trump or many people disrespect the purpose of UN is beyond me. Americans take peace for granted and think the American military is undefeatable in battle. and it's 10,000 nuclear warheads with Trump as President.
This isn't a game to them -- it's their *brand* -- on which they seek to build and manifest through the available playing field (Planet Earth, hello.) WOW that is misinformed. Ah! Now we're talking! I would aim most immediately at U.S. defense industries -- especially those involved in flight and missile avionics. Then, U.S. energy exporters. Ship makers of every stripe, too. Also, real estate in western Europe. AND ITALY. And corporate bonds. Then the *avoids*. Russia and Turkey -- anything. ("It won't end well.") Mediterranean shipping. Pipelines. "Ties that bind." Anything that depends on Turkey's place in NATO or the European theater, or anything that depends on Russia's recognition of property rights. ("It's a house built on sand, in an earthquake zone. It might look pretty, but don't go inside.")
Smart is good. Smart and creative is better. Putin is the latter. We could use more creativity in both warfare and diplomacy. The next world war, if there is one, will depend on bits more than bullets so long as mutually assured destruction keeps working to prevent all out conflagration -- will it continue to work? I hope so.
I think you're absolutely right. To put this in TrumPidiot language, Erdogan is a local pimp who thinks he's a partner with these other guys. Agent Orange just ceded the neighborhood to Putin -- a pimp who blackens the eyes of his whores and then wonders why business goes bad. By the time Erdogan realizes what he gave up, and who he's in bed with now.... I'm not sure the U.S. OR NATO will care enough to put up a fight. And at that point, Europe will have to ship/receive via The Cape Of Good Hope (or across the Atlantic, hey!) to get any commerce going. Again: "Ships!" but not shipping! Global chess, where it takes a year to make a move..... ((If this can stay in the news for another week, I bet the conversation will turn to Turkey/NATO.... I just BET it will. SURE I do. Yes. It will. IIiiiiiiii betcha. Maybe.))
Additionally -- for the forex crowd -- I'd certainly short the EU$ until this gets recognized, and then (perhaps) go long it, anticipating a "cure." (W/in 6 months, I bet. W/OUT any shooting. Mebbe......)