In hindsight it's easy but going forward it's tough to tell which unusual activity is relevant. Everyday there are hundreds of crazy vol/oi.
Good career transformation from a trader who can't make money consistently in the market. He had some good run in the past but still blew up multiple accounts.
I take a peek once in awhile at ET. Once in a great while. Institutions move the market because of deep pockets. However. That doesn't mean they are smart. They too lose and go bust or go through big DD like everyone else that allows it to happen. The markets are one institution trying to take money from another institution. One wins the other loses. Then another loses and the other wins. The thing is they, for the most part, are playing with OPM. Why do you think they are all in to propaganda about their fund? Why do you think the large part of them are crying about Trump? Because he is a disrupter. He messes up their propaganda which messes up their accounts and their clients accounts which in turn pisses off people and results in multiple anti Trump threads appearing in forums LOL. The smart one of the entire bunch IS Trump. He knows their game, their play, and how to MAGA and it does not fit their present agenda but you just watch and see they WILL change and adapt to fit into what he is doing OR they will go bust. That is enough said about Trump and Wall Street and I won't get into useless arguments about it. A few of the best things IMO a trader (and especially a day trader) can do is the following. However, the following is my opinion only and I am not advising anyone to do what the following personal opinions divulge. I just simply have found them to be useful in my context. Here they are: 1) Dispense with the idea of market manipulation. If you are not making money it is because YOU are not yet good enough reading the market pressures and reading which institutions are winning at the moment. 2) Institutions don't care about your bubble gum money. They are after each others ribeye and entire meat packing plant money. 3) when an institutional move renders you a profit grab it as it can disappear faster than you can holler "oh no." 4) if you are looking for big moves in the market you will get lucky at times but remember big moves cut both ways. If he was alive you could ask Livermore. He always made it when in the bucket shops if they didn't recognize him. He later went broke busted 4 times trading the big moves. So...if a trader is going to trade the big moves he best get ready to: A. Spend Time waiting for them to come around. B. Add to winning positions. C. Hold through DDs D. PROTECT one's account with a least some sort of a maximum SL. This was Livermores biggest defect in my opinion. He made "big" money by sitting on his hands but he also lost big money by sitting on his hands. E. RIDE the gravy train as long as you can. F. Get prepared to endure sleepless nights G. CRY when someone like Trump comes along. H. Be prepared to pyschologically endure a low win rate. For scalpers such as myself. I find in my context and this is again only my opinion and not advice 1) DISPENSE with the idea of "running the SLs". The institutions don't care about you or your peanut money even though it appears they seem to hit your SL on purpose then reverse right back. It is really institutions taking money from each other and your and my SLs just happened to be in their way. Again, it is about reading the institutional pressures and assigning probability to the best of your ability which way the next move will likely be then taking a position. And grabbing that money when an institutional market move hands those $$ to you. The reason it must be grabbed when it can be grabbed because we can never know when another institution will enter in overpower and reverse a present move. We can see it happening on a chart but it is nigh impossible to detect if the effort will fail or succeed until it happens. So a trader (especially a scalper) IMO should go by the momentum. Who is winning at the moment. 2) Keep one's Sls out of reach of likely near term institutional moves but ALWAYS have a hard SL always in place because we can never predict when another institution will enter and reverse a previous institutional move until after the fact. 3) BEAWARE that algos can create violent and sudden moves and if scalping one must protect themselves. 4) have entry and exit strategies and tactics in one's mind and relate that to what the market shows itself to be doing at the moment on the charts. However, understand things can change very fast and therefore you need a tactic in place should that happen and know what you will do BEFOREHAND should that happen. Many traders fail at this and hence their emotions get the upper hand on them instead of logic and sound reasoning. 5) know how to get back a loss quickly. 6) know when you are off your read and know when to quit for the day and do something else. Gardening..fishing...running...watching TV...etc 7) do your best to maintain a high win rate. I have never known a scalper to be successful and make it with a low win rate although there may be some somewhere that can pull it off. In summary know that institutions make the market and they aren't always smart but have bigger holding power because of deep pockets ( usually from other people's money). Wipe the word manipulation from your mind and replace it with market pressures. Learn to read market pressures and likely coming market moves but be ready if an unknown variable enters in and suddenly changes the previous read. Have strategies and tactics in place to enter and exit and place appropriate SLs. And have tactics in place when things go awry. Finally grab what the market gives you. You can always enter again should the move continue. By doing so you will BE a winner should it not continue. Finally you have to trade in a way that fits your personality or you will be unhappy and miserable. You must trade in ways that not only make you a profit but that also don't destroy your passion and make you feel unhappy. Some traders could never be happy scalping. Others can never be happy waiting for big moves. Do what makes you money and and brings you contentment at the same time. Bye VOLPRI
Easy to detect. When nothing is working and you get whipsawed. Example: First a losing trade followed by a subsequent losing trade on an attempt to getting back a loss. When this happens say 2 or 3 times IN a ROW then you are "out" of the groove. That is, you are out of sync with what the market is doing (for one reason or the other..not important the reason just the behavior) and is best shut for a scalper to shut her down for the day and get his mind and efforts on something else. Part of preserving capital as are hard SLs vs mental SLs.