I don't mean to be impolite, but I disagree with everything you said. It is much easier to predict long term volatility than it is to predict short term volatility, and I have seen countless times short term options vol explode without the back end even blinking (especially in futures). In equities the back usually tags along just at a small percentage. As for whether it stays at the money or not is irrelevant as all that matters is how fast it moves away from ATM. (and to an extent whether what was at the money turned those options into puts or calls, and even then no biggie since skew is much flatter in long-term).
'Vega' is the math derivative of BSM, showing the impact of volatility changes on an underlying. Volatility is what makes some people answer too fast. "Wait! Is that right?" Okay -- so we good now?