this is a bear market for 10 years.

Nine_Ender · Mar 22, 2020

KCalhoun said:
This is a market that'll crash hard.

https://www.newsweek.com/exclusive-...ns-if-coronavirus-cripples-government-1492878

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-22-20/index.html

We're right up there with zombie apocalypse & war times.

Millions may die, food shortages, looting, martial law, violence, bank runs and mad max world are on people's minds.

Investing in stocks, no. Armageddon is on our doorstep and preppers are looking smart.

I'm going to buy more inverse ETFs like SQQQ TWM VXX.. I just hope banks and brokers don't go bankrupt, and hope we all survive. #staysafe
More...

Memories of the bs people posted in 2009 and 2010. Amazing some of you are going through this charade again.

ironchef · Mar 22, 2020

KCalhoun said:
Once bitten twice shy, who's gonna invest in stocks when they got burned by the drop, anytime soon?

Millennials on Robin hood? Nope

Boomers with smaller retirement funds? Nope

Laid-off unemployed? Nope

Things are in a state of shock for at least this year.

Only us active traders, wall street traders and algos minding the store for awhile, and we go short and long... degenerate traders lol

No investors much for awhile. Bull plays will be short squeezes, relief rallies and times during buybacks.

Loving inverse ETFs
More...

But they keep putting $ into their 401K buying indices, Company pension keep putting $ in, foreigners keep putting $ into US as safe heaven...

Immigrants, legals or illegals will keep coming in to boost the economy (If you lived in Wuhan, forced into quarantine with the police welded your door shut, your parents waiting for a hospital bed at home, you immigrate to the US in a heartbeat if given the chance)....

The recovery will surprise you.

ironchef · Mar 22, 2020

dozu888 said:
that's why I been saying this is a massive shake up.

they shook twice in 2018 after the 2017 rise...now after the 2019 rise a shake up is again needed and corona is here conveniently.

now some people looking back say hey I told you so, shoulda get out and buy the dip... if market timers are so smart why do they all underperform.

problem is the equity earning yield is so far above the bond yields at some point a FOMO blow off will happen, so you never want to get out just because there has been a big run like in 2017 and 2019.... just need to hunker down and stay in the game until the valuation finally catches up.

the leverage part I can understand, you can't make a living with $10-100k.... on that topic I been posting before - the number 1 priority for most people is getting that earning potential up in this best job market ever, well before the corona anyway, and it will recover once the summer comes to kill the virus..... think about yourself if you make $50k you are a $1m bond yielding 5%.... get some training jump job to $100k now you are a $2m bond.... that's the easiest $1m you ever make.... then once the income is up, throw every penny into the QQQ or just MAGA and play the long game that's how you get rich.

so what some peanut traders making a few grand in this recent volatility... them losers never gonna make it big. I am talking about multiple $m... the super cycle is still happening, get every $ you can earn and throw in it... I am talking about a super cycle like the Chinese real estate 20-30 year run where price goes up 20-50 fold... the QQQ already went up 10 fold from the 2009 bottom... think big, think another 10 fold from TODAY'S PRICES.

that's how you get wealthy.
More...

Sadly, not too many understand or appreciate what you are preaching. 99% will focus on your saying coronavirus is just a flu, go all in now, are wrong. But the bottom line is whether they are wrong is not material if certain actions are taken.

The most important life lesson are in the last three paragraphs and the Millennials are young and impatient, they live in a renter society, want everything now. Deferred gratification is not in their vocabulary.

FriskyCat · Mar 22, 2020

schizo said:
Sorry, I don't follow TSX. Anyway, give me the link to this insanely accurate call you made and I'll be happy to pay my tribute.
More...

TSX took out 4 years in 4 weeks, down 37%. He might get one of the bottom calls right, but judging by his comments last month he certainly didn't exit any position. So even if one were to nail the low in 2016, without a stop out level, give back 4 years in 4 weeks.

trading_jean · Mar 22, 2020

dozu888 said:
this other thread

https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/dr-who-wrong.342026/

my estimation would be even lower around 0.1% death on the population, based on Wuhan with 10m residents and about 3000 dead. Wuhan is basically a full population infection scenario where patient 0 was 2 months before the city shut down was implemented... so if you extrapolate and say 10000 would die if nothing was done at all other than basic quarantine like you are sick don't go to school/work to sneeze on everyone.

People are morons so they panic with no perspective. say 0.1% of US population dies from this, that's 350000.. in 2018 we had 80000 dead from the flu.... so Corona is flu on steroids.... but why was there zero panic in 2018. the market dropped a couple of times in 2018 but for unrelated reasons.

yes you can argue the Government has limited ability to tackle. but what is the correct approach anyway?

then you have the media machine throwing fuel on the fire. in this case ironically the state controlled media in China worked better as everything was a rally call to pump up the population's morale.

then about the shut-downs and social distancing and the economic effects.

you say well 350000 is a lot bigger than 80000 and if we can save a lot of lives why don't we shut down the economy for that.... this is a slightly bigger topic.

first of all human life is not priceless.. otherwise we would have to ban all cars without airbags and put missle defense systems on all passenger airplanes.... and heck ban all cars all together since they kill 100 per day in the US and severely injure another 300 or so.

insurance companies value human lives at $2m per, give or take, for risk calculation. say if this whole thing is a 5% GDP drag on the US $20T, that equates to about 500,000 death on the economic loss. you can do similar calculations for any other countries and the conclusions will be about the same.. so the domestic GDP loss is already bigger than the lives saved.

not to mention the soft damage to the quality of life due to the shut downs. all the people suffering hardship due to loss of income.

not to mention, since the same premium can buy far less insurance for old people then the young, you can argue old lives worth less..... but of course that kind of argument will never fly in politics.

not to mention, this is only domestic damage. very few will die from starvation in the US or Europe due to corona. but the economic slow down will have a huge impact on the 3rd world countries many of which rely on exports of goods/services... you can be sure a large number of people will die there due to the economic hardship.

so the 'people are morons' argument.... it's a bit long to unwind... first of all the panic is completely irrational, and it takes some math to explain why even the shut-downs and social distancing is not necessarily the right way to deal with it.

flu on steroids... that's the term I have been using.
More...

I can not be bothered to discuss every single point where you are wrong here, but I will focus on where you start:

my estimation would be even lower around 0.1% death on the population, based on Wuhan with 10m residents and about 3000 dead. Wuhan is basically a full population infection scenario where patient 0 was 2 months before the city shut down was implemented

Saying Wuhan was a basically full population infection scenario and derive the mortality rate from this statement is completely wrong. There was a complete lock-down! Not any country in the world so far has taken measures that go as far as what they did there. Lombardy in Italy already has more dead for the same population size and things are far from over there, despite a lockdown there as well for almost four weeks now.

It is simple: without shutdowns and social distancing at all everybody will get sick at the same time, which means there are not nearly enough intensive care beds to treat those who need them.
Mortality rate will be between 3% and 10%, depending on how well equiped the hospitals are.

schizo · Mar 22, 2020

KCalhoun said:
Once bitten twice shy, who's gonna invest in stocks when they got burned by the drop, anytime soon?

Millennials on Robin hood? Nope

Boomers with smaller retirement funds? Nope

Laid-off unemployed? Nope

Things are in a state of shock for at least this year.

Only us active traders, wall street traders and algos minding the store for awhile, and we go short and long... degenerate traders lol

No investors much for awhile. Bull plays will be short squeezes, relief rallies and times during buybacks.

Loving inverse ETFs
More...

You forgot to mention UNCLE SAM and his buddies all over the world.

dozu888 · Mar 22, 2020

trading_jean said:
I can not be bothered to discuss every single point where you are wrong here, but I will focus on where you start:

my estimation would be even lower around 0.1% death on the population, based on Wuhan with 10m residents and about 3000 dead. Wuhan is basically a full population infection scenario where patient 0 was 2 months before the city shut down was implemented

Saying Wuhan was a basically full population infection scenario and derive the mortality rate from this statement is completely wrong. There was a complete lock-down! Not any country in the world so far has taken measures that go as far as what they did there. Lombardy in Italy already has more dead for the same population size and things are far from over there, despite a lockdown there as well for almost four weeks now.

It is simple: without shutdowns and social distancing at all everybody will get sick at the same time, which means there are not nearly enough intensive care beds to treat those who need them.
Mortality rate will be between 3% and 10%, depending on how well equiped the hospitals are.
More...

the as is rate is 3000 dead out of 10m, I am already jacking it up by more than 3x to reach the worst case.

patient 0 was 2 months before the shut down.. it was already a full population infection.

trading_jean · Mar 22, 2020

Ok, it probably was a full population infection, and that is why they shut it down after everyone was already infected because that makes sense.
Also: jacking up by more than 3x completely wrong numbers don't make them magically right.

trader99 · Mar 22, 2020

Futures limit down

KCalhoun · Mar 22, 2020

Glad I'm short bias, in TVIX etc

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/22/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html