Stressed for time so I'll just tell you what happened. Opening orders: GE -.20 EDS -.60 RD -.17 All shorts. Canceled all shorts after I got these within about 20 seconds of the open. Got no buys, had my envelope spread too far down. (didn't want to buy anything above yesterday's close) That turned out to be a mistake today, but I am wondering how to handle the other type of big gap open, the infamous "gap and crap". Get filled on 4 or 5 longs, then start eating dirt when the futures head south. Guess I will have to live through a couple before I know how I would handle it. 3 SPY trades, +.31, -.06, -.10
Missed all opening orders, had system problems. That is to say, I fouled up the system. Erased my order entry macro... duh.. Traded the SPY's 4 times... 1 good entry, 1 lucky trade, 1 fair entry, and one unlucky trade. And an unfortunate reluctance to enter that last run up. This will be my last post for a while. Tomorrow morning, I am going into the VA hospital here in San Diego for surgery on a herniated disc in my back. I have been barely able to walk the last 3 weeks, and have been on crutches and wheelchair. I will have time for opening orders though before I go. I will resume posting, probably on a new thread, when I am able to get back to my computer console. Not really very sure how long that will be. Here are my SPY trades. Good trading all, and see you later.
Tony-- I hope everything goes well with your surgery. One of my buddies said that, of VA hospitals, yours is one of the better ones. Good luck. bronks
Hi Kelly- Just saw your post. The Chart was mine, not Tonys. Although you probably figured that out after you submitted the posting. I was trying to help him realize that he is wasting his time and more importantly his money trading the Stock market Las Vegas style. His methodology reminds me of someone who sits in front of a slot machine and pulls the handle. Yeah, sure sometimes you'll get a payoff. My submission would be to place yourself in front of a Betty Boop Slot and go to towne. You'd be a lot more entertained in my opinion. Now, with that said, and all due respect to Tony, and I do mean that sincerely. I respect him very much for his postings and what he has accomplished. In that sense his attempts are Not a waste of time. However, back to my chart and your one comment on the "Blue Arrow." I have no idea how long you've been trading. At anyrate that is not important for now. We will have different opinions. The volume expansion bar that you noticed opening on High and Closing on Low is a capitulation selloff to be sure. However, to attempt a cover on that very same bar is NOT the best bar to attempt to buy to cover. Although technically speaking there are bars before that which give you an option to cover. The point I am trying to make to Tony is he must not only have a reason to take the trade but also he must look for the opportunity with the Most likely and Highest probability of follow through. The Volume expansion Bar is Not that bar. Two things.: 1) when attempting to cover on that bar one needs to "lead the market" quite a bit. In other words you need to be buying at least above the best bid and more likely need to be lifting the lowest offer, more likely going behind the best offer, meaning crossing the market and bidding significantly above the inside market. In a fast enough moving stock that is falling at an increasing rate the .01 spread that might be typically present could in fact be widening or widened to say .05 or more. At the pace that bar was moving, even if you did say lead the pack on the intrabar reversal from the low to the close, you have introduced even more risk(of leaving even more money on the table) to the equation. Whereas, your buy-to-cover actions could be closing the spread unnecessarily back to a penny or less you will certainly not be participating in any potential further follow through to newer lows. 2) The speed at which the price fell is half to even sometimes a 1/3 as fast as the capitulation bounce. That is to say that attempting to cover on a super fast candle such as the one we are referring to as the Volume Expansion bar is in my opinion not good. You are at the very least chasing the best bid back up or covering by catching a falling knife. In either case you've left money on the table and were only taking profits based on "extreme" nature of the capitulation. Moreover, in retrospect one can of course see that there were lower lows to be realized. Closing price consolidation on the following bars would give you your first sign that a reversal was in the making. At that point a trader would have some true grounds for which to base a next trade on. The Blue arrow I pointed out was an attempt to point out the "Safest" entry point for Tony on a buy-to-cover order with some conviction behind it. On the Blue arrow bar the price moves back up over the high of all 3 bars before it. Cover your short definitely. Entry for a long position...potentially. There again, with consideration to price, a long should be taken right at the point the price moved over the high of the previous bar. Placement of a tight stop behind it(.05-Precision is everything to me, if I'm wrong in .05, then I don't need to be in the trade), then you have a setup for what turns out to be a scalp trade that will give you time to calculate market direction. Moreover, and more importantly even if no profit is taken and your stop gets hit 3 bars later, you will have the necessary conviction to put on a short trade based on price action in relation to the overhead trendline and the confirming downward moving averages. Hope I've thoroughly explained my trading decision on the Blue buy-to-cover arrow. -momo
God's blessings to you and His guidance to the surgeons. Remember, don't tick off the nurses, they have access to needles to poke you with that are bigger than your thumb!!!!! H
One quick post before I go take a shower using some gosh awful soap they gave me. Opening orders: ACE: +.30 (should have been much more) COC: +.30 BR: +.20 (should have been much more) COX: +.19 and, there is always one that doesn't get the word: DHI: -.13 (but should have held a little tougher, I get out even) Can't complain.... except for one thing, Nurses told me (several times) don't eat or drink anything after midnight, and to eat light at supper. I'M HUNGRY, and I WANT MY COFFEE !!!!. Later,
2nd day home, still very sore. can't sit much, gotta stand and type.. won't be trading for a few days. things went ok... but it was kind of rough. don't do this if you can avoid it. later,