House prices surging in Palo Alto, and other areas of Bay Area as well as South Beach orange County and other regions. Real estate booming in East coast as well. new York, and other upper class areas.
You dead wrong bud, dead wrong. Nothing is moving in any of these areas. Prices may not be falling in Palo Alto, but look at just about any other bay area county and you'll see a different story. LA south to San Diego is a graveyard.
Except for some shit hole new developments or crap towns that people are fleeing ala' Detroit, home prices are higher. Even if prices in some desirable spots like SoFla or SoCal are down 5-10% is that a crisis?
But the thread tile says 'total implosion' but if you ignore all the media hype and the bears there was no total implosion.
I guess the all the nuclear blasts in every mortgage or landbank stock was due to detroit? The fed jammed the system with liquidity and cut rates because of detroit? I agree it was not a total implosion, but the bubble popped quickly and got to the ground in a hurry.
its alot more than 5-10% ...my neighbor got an offer for 685k 1 1/2 ago and balked at it becuase it was 30k under what she was aksing...the going rate now is 525K ( and she will throw in a hand job )....the condos near my house on coral way sold for 360k to a friend of mine about 1 year ago...he told me they are now being offered at 250k...so in some places its more like 20-40% and still counting....again this is here in miami near my house so that might not be whats going on outside of my 5 mile radius ( which is where the governer in my car shuts it off )....dayum i have to muster up the courage to go outside my range more often...
Listen dude I'm SHORT. I'm not some perma bull talking my position (although I own a house). The fact is in MOST of the country prices are either up in 2007 or down only marginally. In my neighborhood in Florida-the state that's supposed to be collapsing-only 17 out of 187 houses are in the MLS. Out of those 17 I'd say perhaps four are priced for a sale. And this is a neighborhood where prices are up 3x since the 90's and although prices are off the 05' highs this could be as big a pull back as you get. Why? Cheap rates, a cheap dollar and high equity prices. One of my best friends from the CBOT barely made a living trading. 0-50k a year. He was virtually HOMELESS three years ago. His net worth today? Based on CME's close he's got about 2.3 million! That's why people are able to unload 400k condo's in Miami.
Bro, i was down your way a few months back (trust me I'll never enter Dade again without calling you) and the prices in the Grove blew me away. Yes Lauderdale's off the highs also but that only repriced dumpy cottages from 850k to 750k.
my main bank client just laid off 10% of their work force. thats the third round of lay-offs; so this round has 15 families less bennies and $100+k/year. just saw a plumbing contractor at the gym that used to have 175 plumbers doing new installation in resi subdivisions. he now has 25 people TOTAL including the support, back office & secretarial. they bill 20% of what they were doing. commercial/resi lending HIT the wall. my buddy does big subdivisions and MP communities all over the country - developers are saying "stay alive until 2010." ive sold small investment properties - only have my home left & its F&C. taxes & costs were a KILLER on sales, but im not just talking the talk, i sold the last deal in July 2007 - a little too late & had to lower price to get a deal. im gald i sold. im not in a hurry to add back either. its about IRs and unemployment levels. if employment stays strong and IRs dont sky, then people can ride it out. bubbles and manic moves dont end with a few scratches - you traders should know that.
I have first-hand knowledge of large developers in Orlando, Galveston TX, Myrtle Beach SC, and Gatlinburg TN imploding, gutting purchasers of deposits. Resort properties in locations which aren't shite holes or crap towns. Pure fantasy to believe US real estate isn't in the crapper. That tan man with a plan ain't out of the woods yet, in other words.