Trading bitcoin via mstr in 2025

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jan 18, 2025.

  1. johnarb

    johnarb

    Latest update and changes
    • mstr june 2025 call options
    • gme shares (sold 0% 5yr convertible debt $1.3B upsized to $1.5B due to high demand to buy bitcoin)
    mstr shares were traded for gme shares

    Things are bad, right now, 2 months to go on the June mstr call options expiring worthless, currently position is down -$101k m2m

    GME shares were purchased at a high cost basis, so down a little bit on the position, but no expiration, waiting for GME to announce purchase of bitcoin

    Things are starting to look good for bitcoin

    I still think a violent bitcoin bull market is imminent, and will happen within the next 2 months
     
    #121     Apr 4, 2025
    jbusse and NoahA like this.
  2. NoahA

    NoahA

    I think today was a big sign. The fact that the market dropped so hard by Bitcoin went up slightly is a major pivot point.
     
    #122     Apr 5, 2025
    Sekiyo and johnarb like this.
  3. The world stage just watched China beat the shit out of America. :fistbump::fistbump:

    For better or worse, we're definitely in a new order now...

    If America manages to get back on its feet in the ring, I wouldn't mind another few knockouts by China (or anyone else getting their retaliatory tariffs ready) to boost the blue-chip cryptos a bit more.

    Time for the popcorn, because this shit-show sure is a one-of-a-kind.
     
    #123     Apr 5, 2025
  4. orbit23

    orbit23

    It's a new paradigm and crypto is the blue chip.

    [​IMG]
     
    #124     Apr 6, 2025
    johnarb likes this.
  5. johnarb

    johnarb

    Latest update and changes
    • mstr june 2025 call options no longer down 6 figures $, still holding the position,
    • gme shares (no announcement of buying bitcoin, yet)
    • new position - gme Jan2026 call options
    Thread title not matching positions, should be renamed to "trading bitcoin via stock and stock options of companies buying bitcoin for treasury"
     
    #125     Apr 22, 2025
    Sekiyo likes this.
  6. long

    long

    could you put some dates on this chart?
     
    #126     Apr 22, 2025
    johnarb likes this.
  7. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    "For this structure to remain solvent, Microstrategy must continuously raise larger amounts of money from new investors to service existing obligations. The debt maturity schedule is brutal: $650 million due in 2025, $3.25 billion due by 2027, and $8.21 billion due by 2030. That's $1.74 billion annually just in maturing debt, plus $205 million in annual operational losses from their failing software business. This means they need approximately $1.95 billion in fresh capital every year just to stay afloat."

    "It's actually much dumber than that. People pay more per share then that amount of bitcoin it represents - say, for a $400 share price there's only $200 of bitcoin. Then when he dilutes a share, he spends $350 of the $400 acquired on bitcoin. Now all shareholders have $200 + x worth bitcoin, where (x/400) is the bitcoin yield.
    The amount he's "robbed" new shareholders is ($400 - $200 - x). But as long as there are newer shareholders pouring in more money, those original new shareholders will be all right. MSTR advocates simply believe that this will work forever without a problem, and I wish I was joking. They generally do understand this part of the math."
     
    #127     May 2, 2025
  8. long

    long

    It’s kind of like investing in a ponzi scheme on purpose. I’m holding on to MSTR but I wish Saylor would hurry up and make a BTC bank out MSTR.
     
    #128     May 2, 2025
    NoahA likes this.
  9. NoahA

    NoahA

    I'm not that aware of what MSTR is doing, but I thought most of the debt was convertible to equity, so they didn't need to raise cash. If what you say is true, that is a bit worrisome to be honest. The only cash that I thought they needed to come up with was the coupon, and I thought even some of their debt instruments had zero % coupons.
     
    #129     May 2, 2025
    johnarb likes this.
  10. johnarb

    johnarb

    The info on the mstr debt is public, don't know where all the speculation is coming from, especially from the msm articles

    All the debt are convertible to shares, and they do not mature on the same year, all the bitcoin in mstr treasury are unencumbered, they do not have to sell a single bitcoin even if bitcoin goes to $1/btc

    Only 2 of the convertible debt are below the conversion price and within this year, those will probably be above the conversion price

    They can meet the debt payments including preferred shares dividends via ATM sales, they just sold $21B worth of shares in the past 6 months,

    Everything is published in real time, no need to believe opinions, including mine

    https://www.strategy.com/debt
     
    #130     May 2, 2025
    NoahA and jbusse like this.