Trading bitcoin via mstr in 2025

Discussion in 'Crypto Assets' started by johnarb, Jan 18, 2025.

  1. johnarb

    johnarb

    ***** not financial advice, for entertainment purposes only ******

    Last year, you could have turned $10k into $1M within 2 months buying mstr options

    If things align, it could happen again soon™

    It all depends on how the stars align, bitcoin bull market price action, liquidity, and all, stock market has been going well, that's a good thing

    We pray. Seriously, we pray and we become a good person, help the needy, be of good moral character, and things will work out

    • Buy wotm mstr call options and turn a small risk capital to 6 figures or maybe $1 Million (bwahahahah)

    mstr is qualified for the S&P 500 today, we had to wait for the closing price of bitcoin yesterday, this does not mean mstr will get added

    mstr next earnings will be >$39/share, net income will be >$11 Billion


    https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/crypto-macro-trends-for-2022.363931/page-90#post-5920653


     
    #161     Jul 1, 2025
    jbusse likes this.
  2. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    Lol how? Especially when you consider current and future dilution.

    Let’s run the numbers on that $10K → $1M idea


    Scenario Summary – MSTR Jun 19, 2026 $1,000 Calls


      • Position: Long 5 call contracts (500 shares exposure)
      • Strike Price: $1,000
      • Expiration: June 19, 2026
      • Entry Price: $22.75 per contract
      • Total Investment: $11,375
      • Implied Volatility: 80%
      • Target Evaluation Date: September 19, 2025 (273 days to expiry)
      • Target Stock Price: $3,000
    Projected Outcome (Using Black-Scholes Model):

      • Estimated Call Price at $3,000: $1,948.60 per contract
      • Total Value:
        → 5 contracts × 100 shares × $1,948.60 = $974,297.88
      • Profit:
        → $974,297.88 – $11,375 = $962,922.88
      • Delta at Target Price: ~0.937 per contract
        → (Almost full stock-like behavior at this point)
    Conclusion:
    If MSTR reaches $3,000 by September 2025, your $11K investment in deep OTM long-dated calls could grow to nearly $1 million, assuming volatility holds and time premium remains intact.
     
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2025
    #162     Jul 1, 2025
  3. johnarb

    johnarb


    waxy, you're full of negative energy, you need to calm down, go to church, take a shower once in a while :D

    Last year, I had 10 June 1,100 call options, in January, mstr was $500, by March, it had hit $1999/share, the 10 call options were worth over $1M

    You lack positive imagination and I am not your babysitter waxy, plus you bring negative vibes, be that as it may

    10 call options January 2026 strike 980 are $1k each,will cost about $10k, if mstr hits $1980 by that time, position will be worth $1M

    I do not have those options, but just sayin'
     
    #163     Jul 1, 2025
    jbusse likes this.
  4. wxytrader

    wxytrader



    How much of that did you give back again?

    Also? Price was $377 in Jan 2025...sub $300 in March...

    Anyway I might take that bet...but dilution is the problem. My sheet is showing that with the Jan16 980 call for 10.03, even with a 3SD move, price at expiry would be $1120 so only $262k pnl.


    Chat gpt says:

    MSTR Is Underperforming BTC — Likely Due to Dilution
    • When Bitcoin hit ~$98K, MSTR peaked at $536

    • Since then, Bitcoin has reached new ATHs — including $107K and $113K

    • But MSTR has only reached $432, well below its previous high
    What This Shows:
    • MSTR is no longer tracking Bitcoin 1:1 the way it did during previous bull runs

    • This divergence suggests the market is factoring in:
      • Ongoing dilution from share issuance

      • Flattening leverage effect of MSTR’s BTC holdings

      • Possibly front-loaded optimism now replaced by realism
    Bottom Line:
    Even though BTC is making higher highs, MSTR is making lower highs
    → That’s a clear sign of dilution impact and diminishing BTC upside sensitivity
    → Critical to keep in mind before buying deep OTM MSTR calls — you're not betting on BTC alone, but on MSTR regaining its historical BTC leverage, which may no longer be intact.
     
    Last edited: Jul 1, 2025
    #164     Jul 1, 2025
  5. johnarb

    johnarb

    Things are not looking good... One month to go to Sept call options expiration and >90% probability my mstr Sept wotm call options are going to expire worthless

    I still think that Uptober and Moonvember will be very good... so I more than doubled one of my mstr Dec wotm call options position

    And also full allocation to memecoins, altcoin and a leverage perp trade

    It's either going to be a good Christmas celebration or not, a few months to go to find out

    Good luck to all
     
    #165     Aug 16, 2025
    jbusse and NoahA like this.
  6. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    LOL I knew you were holding garbage again. Just admit you’re a worthless pumper — just cherry-picking whatever narrative props up your cheerleading.
     
    #166     Aug 16, 2025
  7. The irony, is that most bullish investors I know get scared shitless when 'BUSTober' comes around.
     
    #167     Aug 16, 2025
    orbit23 likes this.
  8. wxytrader

    wxytrader


    That’s not irony — Calling bullish investors getting scared in BUSTober “irony” makes no sense. It’s not ironic, it’s exactly what you’d expect.
     
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2025
    #168     Aug 16, 2025
  9. johnarb

    johnarb

    I'm going by past cycles Uptober 2013, 2017, 2021, and this time 2025


     
    #169     Aug 16, 2025
    NoahA and jbusse like this.
  10. wxytrader

    wxytrader

    My portfolio’s stacked with Bitcoin trackers. Even so, I would prefer to see 70K instead of "Uptober", just to watch you and your clown show melt down trying to spin the damage. :)

    Screenshot_20250816-115550.png

    I don't think you have to be savvy in charts to know that candle ain't no pullback LOL..let the 3-6 month correction begin!
     
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2025
    #170     Aug 16, 2025