My last 3 trades on perpetual futures were losers, but not right away, they start as positive but bitcoin and crypto (sol perps) whipsaw a lot I'm not a fan of Ran Neuner but the idea behind this video makes sense, not so much the target prices, which may or may not hit... It's the idea that we're at the last 5 months of the typical crypto bull market cycle and if that is the case, holding, not trading (the short term moves) is usually more profitable Not bitcoin, but altcoins that has more beta I have my picks (none of it is discussed in Ran's video) This only works if the bull market is still good for the next 5 months, if we go to a bear market, altcoins will lose a lot more than bitcoin nfa, of course
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This is exactly what I'm trying to capture... the whipsaws. But unlike you, I don't want it to turn into a loser or to be liquidated. The worst thing that can happen is that it turns into a long term hold. I already held bitcoin from roughly 55k down to 16k, so no big deal. But this time around, I'm much closer to financial independence so I need to be more strategic. Also, I don't think we will have another 80% drawdown. I do think there is too much institutional demand now. Yup, completely agree here as well. In my tax free account, I sold some when we broke 113k and a bit higher, and neither of those positions were able to be put back on yet. We just didn't have a strong enough dip. Its good for showing strength, but of course bad to have cash sitting and doing nothing. The problem with the alts is that they may never come back. If I scale into bitcoin at 100k, 90, 80, 70 or even 60k, they are all good entries that decrease the average price. I imagine bitcoin is 99% likely to make a new ATH eventually. But the alts, not so much. So scaling into alts could be very dangerous. Leveraged bitcoin can also be dangerous. With futures, you have to get your math right so you have enough margin down to 50k or where you think might be the absolute bottom. Holding an ETF is perhaps mostly safe, but also, trading BTC on exchanges means that you can also always take that bitcoin into cold storage, so there is a perk there. But on the flip side, the Bitunix exchange could also go down, so no matter how well your trading went, there is a chance that you will never see your money again. The risk of this happening to IBIT is much, much lower. So all I'm doing is trying to go about this in the most safest way, with the lowest costs, and best plan for long term success. And of course, trying to outperform buy and hold. (I've been watching too many videos on retiring in SE Asia, and would love to know that I can trade for a bit of income while enjoy beach life)
Oh, and just to update you John about my SOL, I did manage to sell a bit on the pump to 300 after Trump won, and still have 16 left. I have orders to scale out again above 200, and would love for them to start hitting. I know the bull market might just be getting started, but there is a chance it also might not. It would be nice to not having anything else left other than bitcoin going into next year.
That's a great plan, Noah! In some ways the 2 liquidations were related to me swapping most of the trading funds to the altcoin (HyperLiquid) and leaving too little funds to get liquidated, although the Solana perps was a definite loser, lol, purchased a false breakout pump above $194/sol On the Asian retirement, there's a video I saw of a dude who's doing a retirement in SE Asia through high-yield ETF's dividends and one of his ETF's was msty Another video was a female trader in Bali, doing crypto trading, earning several thousands a week, living a very good life, Congrats on being much closer to FIRE lifestyle, Noah, if we get through this next 3-4 years, $1M/btc or close to it will happen Yes, the alts strategy is only for this last few months of the bull market cycle to take advantage of a fomo bubble blowoff top on bitcoin if it happens SE Asia is a lot of fun, safe and low-cost, the weather is excellent
I'm pretty sure its this guy!!! https://www.youtube.com/@TheDividendNomad From the few videos I have seen, (just discovered him a few days ago actually), he is only showing 2 of his 5 accounts I think. He easily makes $2k from just one account, so overall, I think he must be pulling in at least 10k per month. And I for sure noticed that MSTY was his biggest dividend draw... so I have to wonder how much this will drop if the conditions aren't right. I don't understand anything that Dest says when you guys are discussing this, but I do understand how the dividends might just be your own money returned to you. The chart doesn't look healthy in my opinion, and if the only way to get $2 per share every month is mostly because the share price is dropping $2, its not a good long term strategy. I also understand that its based on MSTR volatility, and I guess that is slowing down. With regards to dividends, I have seen many videos state that there is no point in losing 50% value in a stock just because you get 5-7% per year. And this I have to agree with. Nothing wrong with timing trades so you can get the dividend, so called get in and get out, but honestly, if you bought MSTY in the 30's or 40's, you need lots of dividends before you're back to break even. So I think trading is 10 times better than just hoping for dividends. If we really are going to be in a bear market next year, then using the perp futures will be ideal since its just as easy to short, and if it is a down market, then scaling into shorts at higher prices should eventually lead to a profitable exit. Same thing I'm doing now... scaling into longs since its an up market. And saying that... just closed another trade! Its only $100, but for me, I'm very happy and I have at least 6 or 7 profitable trades this month. If I honestly make this work, its easy to double or triple the account by adding more funds. If I can get a few $500 winners every month, that is practically enough to life off of in SE Asia, and that's not even touching the bulk of my meagre bitcoin holdings which is where the biggest allocation is anyway. I'm trading a small-ish portion of my capital, so I'm not too worried about missing upside in case its ripping higher and I don't have a position on in my trading account. I had to use the special orders that IB allows which covers almost 24 hours trading, but it all has to be entered manually (hence why I was looking for ideas). The fees were also a bit higher on this exit, 63 cents... and likely because of limited routing or something like this. Of course maybe the exit is going to bite me in the ass because by morning the position might be up even higher, but oh well. I like how on almost 200 shares, each extra penny is another $2 profit. That is a whole meal in SE Asia! LOL There are 8 entries for 20 shares each, and the lowest 3 were sadly only 10 shares each. So the total was 190 shares. Still had room to add more if it went lower, but if it went below the recent 114k bottom, I would switch to the other account, and start building a position there and wait for this one to recover.
I watched the video John, and am so unimpressed. These guys just make videos since with such a huge following, you are bound to make hundreds of dollars from each one, so you just keep pumping them out. I'm not a fan of these price models at all. I mean its good that he at least uses a mathematical approach, but the same metrics from the past will I think not work going forward. I honestly doesn't understand what ETH is used for today, or even SOL to be honest (other than pumping out meme coins). I certainly understand using the rails to send USDT, since that is a solid use case, but I just don't understand how any of these chains are so far changing the world. They will never be a store of value, and as a utility token to pay gas fees.... well... I don't see how ETH gets to 10k or higher. I think for alt season, we really need the degens and stimmy checks and retail. I just don't see it happening again. If anything, what I see is lack luster performance of the alts, and then a rotation back into BTC. Maybe everyone is bullish on ETH for the yield, so with institutional adoption and earning yield, if the ETFs manage to work that in, it might be a good product, but I don't know what world problems they are solving. Maybe tokenizing stocks or other assets has good use cases, but these aren't trillion dollar ideas. I of course know how Bitcoin is at least a 100 trillion dollar asset, but I don't see anything else coming close once the dust settles.
Yes, that's him! lol msty dividend has been going down a lot, because mstr volatility is also very low now compared to historical volatility, which is also related to bitcoin volatility is also very low When bitcoin goes up a few godzilla candles, that's when mstr and msty will be good again $2 is a meal in SE Asia because most of the food is much lower cost to produce, chicken, pork, seafood, vegetables, fruits, but there are foods that are more expensive like steaks, or fish that is not very common in the local waters
These influencers make millions of $ from YouTube revenues! There are certain categories in YouTube that are very high paying as Google is able to charge very high to advertisers , and financial stuff (like bitcoin and crypto) is one of them (kids are also very profitable, never heard of Blippi before, and also these kids that open toys are multi-millionaires before they are teenagers) But anyway the idea behind the video is why I shared it and I stopped trading as I thought about it, and imho it can be a high-probability asymmetric risk-reward trade for the next 5 months I do not plan to hold these altcoins for a long time, only until certain price targets are hit Here's a sample, using one of the altcoins I already mentioned I'm holding, which is SPX6900 currently trading at ~$2/spx market cap is $1.9B fdv, let's round up to $2B If bitcoin goes to $200k/btc, market cap $4 Trillion, we'll say it's a 2x from here (i know it's not, but for easy math, lol) bitcoin market cap of $4 Trillion will cause a wealth effect throughout the whole crypto assets ecosystem and will lift all boats, 99% certainty What would happen to altcoins that are already performing well during this bull market? NGU, of course SPX, imho will be 3-5x+ from $2B mc to $6-10B+ So if I sell SPX for 4x from here and convert to bitcoin, i will be able to stack more sats and this hurdle rate is too difficult for me to match if I do short term trades, perps and what not That is the plan anyway... PS: The very important piece is that bitcoin will go to $200k/btc or higher before eoy, if I did not believe this will happen, this would be a bad trade