Trading in Luxury

Discussion in 'Journals' started by traderlux, Dec 5, 2009.

  1. My thread for trading ideas. Trades are mainly options on momentum stocks and ETFs. Trades are either BULL, BEAR, or NEUTRAL and short term, usually not longer than 6 months.

    stocks watch list:




    TLT, TBT
  2. AA @$14.43, trade idea 12/11/09

    outlook, bull to neutral

    time frame, about 6mo or longer

    strat, DITM longer term (LT) call, build a position, collect premium, reinvest in the trade

    t/a, (later)

    problemos? how will div and e/r affect the trade? e/r 11, jan

    protection, (later) (DITM LT call provides some risk reduction vs long stock position)

    exit, (?)

    bto jan (2011) 10C $530/540
    sto jan (2010) 16c $32/34

    sell jan 11/12.5 p $7/8, $22/33, ($14/136), 10%
  3. Trade idea
    Date: 12/21/09
    Price: 111.33
    Almanac: End of Yr. favorable
    Strategy: Bull Put Spread
    T/A Support: 109
    Time forTrade: 4 wks
    BTO: JAN 104 PUT @ .47/.49
    STO: JAN 106 PUT @ .67/.70
    Net Credit: .18
    At Risk: 1.92 (2.00-.18)
    Margin Gain: 9%
    % OTM: 4.5%
  4. Trade review
    With SPY close at $114.62 today, 1/13/10, looks pretty safe to just let the trade expire on fri 15 and keep all premium.
    It would take a 7% drop to hit the short strike.
    Will add for the future almanac, "end of year AND start of new year favorable"
  5. AA trade review
    The vertical jan 11/12.5p expired at $0.

    The way the cal spread turned out kinda confirms my thought that trades on stocks rather than ETFs are too risky. Especially around earnings, which was on 1/11.
    AA traded to a high of $17.60 on mon 1/11, and closed at $15.63 on fri 1/15, OPX.
    Today thu 1/28, close is $12.92, the jan 2011, $10 call is $380/395
    I was looking for a stock under $20, and in some resource related area to build a longer term position in, using a DITM option in place of the stock.

    I think for now I will concentrate on the vertical spreads on ETFs.

  6. trade review sat jan 30
    trade did expire at $0, SPY $110.21
    also an error in the "At Risk", 1.82, not 1.92
    Margin Gain 10%
    Date: 2/12/10
    Price: 36.31
    Almanac: favorable
    Strategy: Bull Put Spread
    T/A Support: 34
    T/A: rsi 21, macd 12 26 9
    Near term target: 40
    Time forTrade: 5 wks
    BTO: MAR 30 PUT @ 15/16
    STO: MAR 33 PUT @ 44/47
    Net Credit: .29
    At Risk: 2.71
    Margin Gain: 10%
    Probability: (approx) 90%
    % OTM: 3.3%
    Volatilty: OVX @ 36.04
  8. re USO trade idea

    with the long holiday week end and todays rally, a lot of steam has come out of the proposed BPS MAR 30/33 P.

    went from .29 to .17, USO @ $37.70

    if put on now, trade would be a 6% ROM, approx 94% prob, still looks interesting, not as good as last Fri!
  9. re USO trade idea

    USO had a good week, Fri 19 eod $39.09.

    Move was too quick to get on board with the BPS MAR 30/33 P.
    Went from .39 on Fri 12, to .07 on Fri 19.
  10. trade idea Mon 22

    SPY eod $111.16

    BPS Mar 102/105P @ .25/2.75, 9%rom

    short strike 5% OTM

    t/a support, 106
    #10     Feb 22, 2010