guru augery, from Pete at 1option on fri 5-14-2010: "Short every failed rally. In the early going, take profits and expect snap back rallies. When those rallies become less frequent, youâll know that investors are ready to throw in the towel. Major support levels will fall easily and that is when you need to hang on to positions. You can already start to buy long term (put) options (4-6 months out) that are far out of the money (20% or more). Scale into these trades. Focus on companies that rely on credit (heavy equipment, banks, and consumer stocks). Any company that carries a lot of debt and needs cash flow (airlines) will be in trouble. Keep your long term put positions and add to them in coming months. Have shorter term capital available to get in and out of front month put options in the early stages of the decline."
deal or no-deal here is a trade idea i posted in the stocks forum "....5/12/2010, BIDU @78.12, target $100......time, ~6 mo. ....wait for pull back ....go long a call option, strike just OTM (or just ITM if more conservative), time ~9 mo. (or longer if more conservative) ...select a time or loss $ amount to get out if it doesnt move in right direction ...select a time or profit $ amount to close if moves in right direction ....monitor market and position for changing conditions" BIDU has pulled back, and round numbers a Dec 80 call is about $10, if BIDU goes to $100, the call would about double. if BIDU continues to fall, could prob get out of call for about $6. i will watch this trade, but i dont have a high level of confidence at this time.
Guru-augery for Fri May 21, 2010 SPY ST Model...changed from sell short to cover short pfiii...closed QID and BZQ and went to cash ww...0/6....0/10
trade idea Sat May 22, SPY eod (Fri) $109.11 BPS Jun 100/102P @ .25/1.75, 14% rom short strike 6% OTM t/a support, 106 28 dte Jun 18
took a loss on a jun intc bps. closed it out today, thu, jun 10, am as the market was moving higher. i was thinking i could have lost the max as the sp fell into the short strike, when intc rebounded this am decided to just close it out. went against some of my rules when i opened the trade on tue, jun 1, (jun +19/-20p, 12/88) will review in more detail later.
Trade Idea, SPY Bear Call Spread TUE 100727 SPY 111.55 STO AUG 117C .31 BTO AUG 118C .21 CR .10 DTE 26 4.8% OTM
sbhg: 07-31-2010 9:34 AM "we are going to >130 on the spy by oct 2010" with the above in mind, consider, fas 22.64, aug 24c 95/98 xlf 14.71, aug 14c 84/86 http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?t=6m&s=SPY&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=xlf,fas
trade idea wed 100804, uso 36.90 bear call spread aug -39/+40c, 21/11, 10/100 5.7% otm possible short term reversal coming?, at upper bb, rsi and macd not yet turned http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=USO&t=3m&l=off&z=m&q=l&p=b,e10,e5&a=r14,m26-12-9&c=
I think you're right, OIL is on resistance and there are a series of indicators that are pointing for a stop in the price movement. But the question is... Why trade the BEAR CALL on 39/40... You're risking a lot for 10 cents? I've been doing these kinds of trades for years, and if i wanted the 10 cents, i would go naked on the 40 Strike, but probably in September options that are trading @ 0.44. Considering that USO has to break resistance levels and stop for a while to free the price from overbought levels and then rise 8.5% to reach the strike, we should get a very juicy premium. Nevertheless, if the reason to make the BEAR CALL have to do with margin issues, then i would go for the AUG 38/39. Steoli <><><><><><><><><><><><> Feel that's a buy? Then sell... http://tradingthecow.blogspot.com <><><><><><><><><><><><>