SPY preview Wk of 10/5/20, 2nd wk option expiry for Oct 2020, Fri 10/9, put bull week. End of qtr rebalance winding down. FOMC members talking. On Wed FOMC minutes from last meeting. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights going on as tensions rise ahead of Nov election. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Discord over when vacine ready. Earnings in focus, PAYX,LEVI,RPM,DAL,DPZ,HELE. VIX traded to highs during week, finished slightly higher on the week. VIX t/a tells, indicate VIX could move up this week, a negative for markets. VIX term curve is uneasy going into election, not a positive for markets. So VIX giving a bear picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$8.60 move, +/-2.6%, last Fri close 333.84, possible range of 325 to 343 for this week. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 300/315/330 and under 340/350. Near term T/A, chart candles, gaps, volume, mainly bearish, momentum indicators are overbought. 333.50 is 21ma level, 334.60 is 50ma. 340 is now a level to watch. HA daily candles last week, green M,T,W,TH, red Fr. MACD weakening bull, STOCH was bull, turned bearish. With VIX giving a bear picture and near term T/A signals mainly negative, SPY could be weak. Setting a SPY target of 330/334. (target for last week was 330/334, actual close was 333.84)
SPY preview Wk of 10/12/20, 3rd wk option expiry for Oct 2020, Fri 10/16, monthly expiry. Monday Columbus Day Holiday, banks closed. FOMC members talking. Retail sales numbers Friday. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights going on as tensions rise ahead of Nov election. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Discord over when vacine ready. Earnings in focus, JPM,JNJ,C,DAL,FAST,BAC,WFC,GS,UAL,AA,MS,SCHW,SLB,JBHT. VIX traded to highs during week, finished lower on the week. VIX t/a tells, indicate VIX could move up this week, a negative for markets. VIX term curve is uneasy going into election, not a positive for markets. So VIX giving a bear picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$6.70 move, +/-2.00%, last Fri close 346.85, possible range of 340 to 354 for this week. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 335 and under 350. Near term T/A, chart candles, gaps, volume, somewhat bearish, momentum indicators are overbought. 334.37 is 21ma level, 336.56 is 50ma. 340 still a level to watch. HA daily candles last week, all green M,T,W,TH,Fr. MACD strong bull, STOCH extreme bull, . With VIX giving a bear picture and near term T/A signals mainly negative, SPY could be weak. Setting a SPY target of 347. (target for last week was 330/334, actual close was 346.85)
SPY preview Wk of 10/19/20, 4th wk option expiry for Oct 2020, Fri 10/23. FED Powell talking on monday, others also talking during the week. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights going on as tensions rise ahead of Nov election. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Discord over when vacine ready. Earnings in focus, IBM,INTC,TSCO,TSLA,NFLX,T,PG,AXP,VZ,SNAP,ITW,LUV,KO,POOL,AAL,TXN,CMG. VIX traded to highs during week, finished higher on the week. VIX t/a tells, indicate VIX could move up this week, a negative for markets. VIX term curve is uneasy going into election, not a positive for markets. So VIX giving a bear picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$7.50 move, +/-2.20%, last Fri close 347.29, possible range of 340 to 355 for this week. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 335 and under 350. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, show a mixed bull/bear picture, momentum indicators overbought, starting to turn over. 337.45 is 21ma level, 338.56 is 50ma. 340 still a level to watch. HA daily candles last week, green M,T,W,red TH, green Fr. MACD bull, STOCH rolling from extreme bull to bear. With VIX giving a bear picture and near term T/A signals somewhat mixed, SPY could tend to consolidate. Setting a SPY target of 342/347. (target for last week was 347, actual close was 347.29)
SPY preview Wk of 10/26/20, 5th wk option expiry for Oct 2020, Fri 10/30. Dont see any FED talkers during the week. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights going on as tensions rise ahead of Nov election. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Discord over when vacine ready. Earnings in focus, MA, V, XOM,AAPL,CVX,GOOGL,AMD,RTX,HOG,BA,MO,MRK. VIX traded to highs during week, finished flat on the week. VIX t/a tells, indicate VIX could move down this week, a positive for markets. VIX term curve is uneasy going into election, slight risk for markets. So VIX giving a slight caution for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$7.35 move, +/-2.10%, last Fri close 345.78, possible range of 338.50 to 353 for this week. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 335/340 and under 354/355. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, show a mixed bull/bear picture, momentum starting to look positve. 341.50 is 21ma level, 339.50 is 50ma. 350 a level to watch. HA daily candles last week, red M,T,W,TH, green doji Fr. MACD turned away from bull, but close to going back, STOCH has been bear, rolling to bull. With VIX giving a slight caution and near term T/A signals leaning bullish, SPY could move up. Setting a SPY target of 350/352. (target for last week was 342/347, actual close was 345.78)
SPY preview Wk of 11/2/20, 1st wk option expiry for Nov 2020, Fri 11/6. President election Tue, 11/3. FOMC mtg Wed, Thu, statement and presser on Thu. NFP Fri. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights going on as tensions rise ahead of Nov election. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Discord over when vacine ready. Earnings in focus, QCOM, GM, UBER, WF, SQ, ROKU, PTON, PYPL, SWKS. CRUS. VIX started week with a jump, traded to highs during week, finished up on the week. VIX t/a tells, indicate VIX could move down this week, a positive for markets. VIX term curve is uneasy going into election, risk for markets. So VIX giving a caution for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$15.20 move, +/-4.70%, last Fri close 326.54, possible range of 311 to 342 for this week. Option volume and open interest as of now looks to keep SPY over 310/320 and under 340. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, show a bull picture, momentum looking to turn positve. 341.20 is 21ma level, 339 is 50ma. 318/320 a support level to watch. HA daily candles last week, red M,T,W,TH, green doji Fr. MACD bearish, STOCH has been bear, possible roll to bull. With VIX giving a caution and near term T/A signals leaning bullish, SPY could move up. Setting a SPY target of 330. (target for last week was 350/352, actual close was 326.54)
SPY preview Wk of 11/9/20, 2nd wk option expiry for Nov 2020, Fri 11/13. Prez flips to Dems. Georgia senate run off, both seats. AAPL event Tue. FED members talking, Powell on Thu. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights on hold as tensions rose ahead of Nov election. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Discord over when vacine ready. Earnings in focus, DKNG, WKHS, PLUG, DIS, MCD, CSCO, NKLA, CGC, . VIX started week down, traded lower during week, finished down on the week. VIX t/a tells, indicate VIX could move up this week, a negative for markets. VIX term curve is still near term uneasy, risk for markets. So VIX giving a caution for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$8.50 move, +/-2.50%, last Fri close 350.16, possible range of 342 to 359 for this week. Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 340/345 and under 355/360. OVI option indicator is positive. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, show a slight bear picture, momentum positve but extended. 342 is 21ma level, 339 is 50ma. Trading has been in a box from 320 to 360. HA daily candles last week, all green. MACD bull, STOCH bull, getting extended. With VIX a caution, and T/A signals leaning slightly bearish, SPY could start to retrace as recent events get absorbed. Setting a SPY target of 348, starting a down move. (target for last week was 330, small up move, actual close was 350.16, higher than target)
vol switch trade, last post was 8/2. (prior posts were May 9th and Jun 18th.) closed out vol short trade using long SVXY, trade was placed on 6/30 and closed on 7/22, about $30 gain on 10 shares cost of $305, 3wks holding. for vol switch trade, a few changes have been made, for vol short, use SVXY, or TQQQ, (ZIV was terminated) for vol long, use cash, VXX, or TVIXF, or SQQQ, (TVIX was altered, with TVIXF now trading otc with uncertain future) a new trade was opened on 11/2 for a short vol signal, long SVXY, 100 shares, $34.13, $3413.00. as of today, 11/11, trade is up about $550, plan to close it today.
SPY preview Wk of 11/16/20, 3rd wk option expiry, monthly expiry for Nov 2020, Fri 11/20. Some FED members talking, Powell not scheduled. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights on hold. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Discord over when vacine ready. Earnings in focus, TSN, HD, NIO, TGT, LOW. VIX started week up, bounced around during week, finished down on the week. VIX t/a tells, indicate VIX could move down this week, a positive for markets. VIX term curve looking better for markets. So VIX giving a positive for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$7.50 move, +/-2.10%, last Fri close 385.10, possible range of 350.50 to 365.50 for this week. Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 350/355 and under 360. OVI option indicator is still positive. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, show a cautious bull picture, momentum positve but extended. 343.50 is 21ma level, 339.50 is 50ma. Trading has been in a box from 320 to 360. HA daily candles last week, green until red Thu, fri back to green. MACD bull, STOCH bull, getting extended. With VIX a positive and T/A signals cautious bull, SPY could move up as recent events get absorbed. Setting a SPY target of 360, starting a small up move. (target for last week was 348, small down move, actual close was 358.10, higher than target)
SPY preview Wk of 11/23/20, 4th wk option expiry, last week of expiry for Nov 2020, Fri 11/27. Market closed thu, Thanksging Holiday, early close fri. Wed, FOMC meeting minutes released. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights on hold. Funding for government not settled. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Discord over when vacine ready. Earnings in focus, BZUN,DQ,MDT,HPQ,DLTR,SJM,GPS,ADSK,DELL,DKS,BBY,DE. VIX started week down, moved up slightly during week, finished small up on the week. VIX t/a tells, indicate VIX could move up this week, a negative for markets. VIX term curve looking better for markets. So VIX giving a mixed picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$6.30 move, +/-1.80%, last Fri close 355.33, possible range of 349 to 362 for this week. Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 340/345 and under 360. OVI option indicator is flat. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, show a bear picture, momentum rolling bearish. 347 is 21ma level, 342 is 50ma. Trading has been in a box from 320 to 360. HA daily candles last week, green mon, tue, red wed, Thu, fri. MACD going bear, STOCH bear. With VIX mixed and T/A signals bear, SPY could move down as recent events get absorbed. Setting a SPY target of 352, a small down move. (target for last week was 360, small up move, actual close was 355.33, below target)
SPY preview Wk of 11/30/20, 1st wk option expiry for Dec 2020, Fri 12/4. OPEC meeting Mon. FED chair Powell talks to congress on Tue, Wed. NFP on Fri. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights on hold. Funding for government not settled. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Discord over when vacine ready. Earnings in focus, ZM, KR, DOCU, ULTA. VIX started week down, continued down slightly during week, finished down on the week. VIX t/a tells, indicate VIX could continue lower this week, a positive for markets. VIX term curve looking better for markets. So VIX giving a positve picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$6.10 move, +/-1.68%, last Fri close 363.67, possible range of 358 to 370 for this week. Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 340/345 and under 360. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, show a bull picture, momentum bullish but getting extended. 351.56 is 21ma level, 343.84 is 50ma. Trading has been in a box from 320 to 360 and now at the upper level. HA daily candles last week all green on the days market was open. MACD bull, extended, STOCH bull, extended. With VIX positive, T/A signals bull, but momoentum extended, SPY could cosolidate as recent events get absorbed. Setting a SPY target of 365, a small up move. (target for last week was 352, small down move, actual close was 363.67, above target)