SPY preview Wk of 12/7/20, 2nd wk option expiry for Dec 2020, Fri 12/11. Dont see any FED talkers for the week. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights on hold. Funding for government not settled. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Discord over when vacine ready. Earnings in focus, COST, AZO, CONN, HRB, HOV, ISSC, CIEN, FLR, JOUT, CASY, COUP, TOL, SMAR, SUMO. VIX started week down, up slightly wed, thu, slight pull back fri, finished flat on the week. VIX t/a tells, indicate VIX could continue lower this week, a positive for markets. VIX term curve looking better for markets. So VIX giving a positve picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$5.70 move, +/-1.6%, last Fri close 369.85, possible range of 364 to 376 for this week. Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 350/360 and under 370/375. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, a bull picture, but extended, momentum bullish but also extended. 359.50 is 21ma level, 348 is 50ma. Trading has been in a box from 320 to 370 and now at the upper level. HA daily candles last week red mon, all green rest of the week. MACD bull, extended, STOCH bull, extended. With VIX a positive, T/A bull, but momentum extended, SPY could consolidate as recent events get absorbed. Setting a SPY target of 372, a small up move. (target for last week was 365, small up move, actual close was 369.85, above target)
SPY preview Wk of 12/14/20, 3rd wk option expiry for Dec 2020, monthly expiry, and quad witch (qrtly), Fri 12/18. FOMC mtg tue/wed with statement on wed. TSLA being added to SPX for start of week on 12/21. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fights on hold. Funding for government not settled. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Vaccines starting to roll out. Earnings in focus, FDX, WGO . VIX started week up, down slightly tue, then up rest of week, finished up on the week. VIX t/a tells, indicate VIX could continue up this week, a negative for markets. VIX term curve looking better for markets. So VIX giving a mainly negative picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$7.20 move, +/-2%, last Fri close 366.30, possible range of 359 to 374 for this week. Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 360 and under 363/364. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, show a bear picture, momentum has turned bearish, ovi has fallen to flat. 363 is 21ma level, 351 is 50ma. Trading has been in a box from 320 to 370 and now at the upper level, and pulled back. HA daily candles last week green mon, tue, wed, red thu, fri. MACD bear, STOCH bear. With VIX a negative, T/A signals bear, momentum bearish, SPY could pull back as recent events get absorbed. Setting a SPY target of 362, a small down move. (target for last week was 372, small up move, actual close was 366.30, below target)
SPY preview Wk of 12/21/20, 4th wk option expiry for Dec 2020, thu 12/24. Mkt closes early thu and closed fri, Christmas. TSLA now added to SPX for start of week on 12/21. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim fight on going. Temporary funding for government needed. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Vaccines starting to roll out. Earnings in focus, BHP,HEI,EPAC,KBSF,SINA,PAYX. VIX started week up, then down rest of week, finished down on the week. VIX t/a tells, indicate VIX could stay flat this week, a positve for markets. VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a mainly positve picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$5.30 move, +/-1.5%, last Fri close 369.18, possible range of 364 to 375 for this week. Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 350 and under 370/375. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, are extended, momentum has turned bear, ovi has been positve. 364 is 21ma, 353 is 50ma. Trading has been in a box from 320 to 370 and now at the upper level, and pulled back. HA daily candles last week green mon, tue, wed, thu, red fri. MACD bear, STOCH bear. With VIX a positive, T/A extended, momentum bear, SPY could trade flat as recent events get absorbed. Setting a SPY target of 370, a flat trade move. (target for last week was 362, small down move, actual close was 369.18, above target)
SPY preview Wk of 12/28/20, 5th wk option expiry for Dec 2020, thu 12/31. Mkt closed fri, New Years Day. Watch for end of year tax selling, and buying/selling for new year positioning. Next week election certification on wed 1/6/2021, could be a volatility event. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim bill signed. Temporary funding for government enacted. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Vaccines starting to roll out. Earnings in focus, CCL, WB. VIX started week up, then down rest of week, finished flat on the week. VIX t/a tells, indicate VIX could stay flat this week, a positve for markets. VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a mainly positve picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$6.10 move, +/-1.7%, last Fri close 369, possible range of 363 to 375 for this week. Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 350/365 and under 370/375. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, still give extended picture, momentum has turned bearish, ovi has been positve, but low. 366 is 21ma level, 354.5 is 50ma. Trading has been in a box from 320 to 370 and now at the upper level. HA daily candles last week red mon, tue, wed, green thu. MACD bear, STOCH bear, starting to turn bullish. VIX a positive, T/A signals extended, momentum bearish, SPY could trade flat as recent events get absorbed. Setting a SPY target of 370, a flat trade move. (target for last week was 370, flat trade move, actual close was 369, just below target)
SPY preview Wk of 1/4/2021, 1st wk option expiry for Jan 2021, Fri 1/8. Election certification on wed 1/6, Georgia senate run off election, both could be a volatility events. FED talkers mon and thu, FOMC minutes wed, NFP fri. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim bill signed. Temporary funding for government enacted. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Vaccines starting to roll out. Earnings in focus, SCHN,RPM,BBBY,WBA,CAG,STZ,HELE,MU,WDFC,GBX. VIX started week up, then up rest of week, finished up on the week. VIX t/a tells, indicate VIX could stay flat this week, a positve for markets. VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a mainly positve picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$7.30 move, +/-2%, last Fri close 373.58, possible range of 366 to 381 for this week. Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 370 and under 375/380. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, still extended, momentum is mixed, ovi has been positve, but low. 368 21ma, 357 50ma. Trading in a box from 320 to 370, lately well above low and now just above the upper level. 8 ma has been a good support level, it is at 370. HA daily candles green mon, tue, wed, thu, mkt closed on fri. MACD bear, STOCH bull, but extended, RSI positve. With VIX a positive, T/A signals extended, momentum mixed, SPY could trade flat as recent events get absorbed. Setting a SPY target of 375, a flat trade move. (target for last week was 370, (from 369 previous close) flat trade move, actual close was 373.58, above target)
SPY preview Wk of 1/11/2021, 2nd wk option expiry for Jan 2021, Fri 1/15. FED talkers mon, tue, wed, Powell on thu. Political drama going on. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim bill signed. Temporary funding for government enacted. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Vaccines starting to roll out. Earnings in focus, CMC,ACI,KBH,INFY,WIT,TSM,DAL,APHA,BLK,JPM,C,WFC,PNC. (Looking ahead to following week, mon 1/18 market closed. New prez getting ready to take office on Jan 20.) VIX started week up, stayed up, started to pull back thu, fri, finished down on the week. VIX t/a tells, indicate VIX could stay flat this week, a positve for markets. VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a mainly positve picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$6.40 move, +/-1.7%, last Fri close 381.26, possible range of 375 to 388 for this week. Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 370/380 and under 385/390. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, give positive, extended picture, momentum is positve, ovi has been positve. 370 21ma, 360 50ma. Trading has been in a box, 320 to 370, lately well above low and now above the upper level. 8 ma has been a good support level, it is at 374. HA daily candles last week red mon, tue, green wed, thu, fri. MACD bull, STOCH bull, RSI positve. With VIX a positive, T/A signals positive, extended, momentum positive, political drama, SPY could trade flat. Setting a SPY target of 380, a flat move. (target last week 375, (from 373.58 previous close) flat trade move, actual close was 381.26, above target)
SPY preview Wk of 1/18/2021, option expiry for Jan 2021, Fri 1/22. Mon 1/18 market closed, MLK Jr holiday. New prez getting ready to take office on wed Jan 20. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim bill signed. Temporary funding for government enacted. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Vaccines starting to roll out. Earnings in focus, NFLX.INTC,TAL,GS,BAC,HAL,SLB,UAL,AA,MS,FCEL,FAST,JBHT,SCHW,PG,UNP,KSU,PPG. VIX started week up, stayed up, finished up on the week. VIX t/a tells, indicate VIX could move up this week, a negative for markets. VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a mixed but likely negative picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$7.50 move, +/-2.0%, last Fri close 375.70, possible range of 368 to 383 for this week. Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 360 and under 382/385. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, give negative picture, momentum is negative, ovi has been positve. 376 21ma, 365 50ma. SPY in a box, 320 to 370, lately well above low and now just above the upper level. 8 ma has been a good support level, it is at 378, but fri SPY dropped below. HA daily candles last week green mon, tue, wed, thu, red fri. MACD bear, STOCH bear, RSI turning down. With VIX a negative, T/A signals negative, momentum negative, political drama, SPY could trade down. Setting a SPY target of 370, a down move. (target last week was 380, (from 381.26 previous close) flat trade move, actual close 375.70, below target)
SPY preview Wk of 1/25/2021, 4th and final option expiry for Jan 2021, Fri 1/29. New admin in office, executive orders being made. FOMC meeting tue, wed, presser on wed. FED acts are supports for markets, debate over more fiscal stim. Temporary funding for government enacted. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Vaccines starting to roll out. Earnings in focus, TSLA,AAPL,FB,GE,AGNC,MMM,KMB,MSFT,AMD,T,BA,TSCO,CAT,MCD,MO,V,AXP,HON. VIX started week down slightly, continued down, finished down on the week. VIX t/a tells, indicate VIX could move up this week, a negative for markets. VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a mixed but likely negative picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$5.60 move, +/-1.5%, last Fri close 382.88, possible range of 377 to 389 for this week. Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 370/375 and under 395/400. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, give negative picture, momentum is going bear, ovi has been positve. 376 21ma, 368 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 370, now just above the upper level. 8 ma has been a good support level, it is at 380. HA daily candles last week all green. MACD turn bear, STOCH turn bear, RSI bull. With VIX a negative, T/A signals negative, momentum negative, political drama, SPY could trade down. Setting a SPY target of 380, a small down move. (target last week 370, (from 375.70 previous close) down trade, actual close was 382.88, above target, up move)
SPY preview Wk of 2/1/2021, 1st wk option expiry for feb 2021, Fri 2/5. New admin in office, executive orders being made. Short squeezes and online stock battles. NFP on fri. FED acts are supports for markets, debate over more fiscal stim. Temporary funding for government enacted. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Vaccines starting to roll out. Earnings in focus, XOM,AMZN,PYPL,BABA,ABBV,CMG,UPS . VIX started week up, way up wed, finished the week up. VIX t/a indicate VIX could move up this week, a negative for markets. VIX term curve negative for markets. VIX giving a negative picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$12.00 move, +/-3.25%, last Fri close 370.07, possible range of 358 to 382 for this week. Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 365/370 and under 380/385. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, give negative picture, momentum is going bear, ovi has turned negative. 378 21ma, 370 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 370, now just at the upper level. 8 ma has been good support level, it is at 380, SPY fell below it, also below 21ma, also below 34ma 374. HA daily candles last week green mon, tue, red rest of week. MACD turn bear, STOCH turn bear, RSI bear. VIX a negative, T/A signals negative, momentum negative, political and market drama, SPY could trade down. Setting a SPY target of 368, a small down move. (target last week 380, from 382.88 previous close, down trade, actual close 370.07, below target, down move)
SPY preview Wk of 2/8/2021, 2nd wk option expiry for feb 2021, Fri 2/12. New admin in office, executive orders being made. Short squeezes and online stock battles. Powell talk wed. Next week mon 2/15 market holiday, could see slowing action end of this week as traders look for breaks. FED acts are supports for markets, more fiscal stim seems likely. Temporary funding for government enacted. US and China tensions on the rise. Virus still major concern. Vaccines starting to roll out. Earnings in focus,TTWO,GLUU,KKR,CGC,CRSR,TDG,INCY,TWTR,CSCO,LYFT,RRR,YELP, KO,GM,UAA,CME,UBER,SAVE,PEP,TSN,KHC,POOL,DUK,DIS,ACB,MGM, VIX started week down, down rest of week, finished down on the week. VIX t/a tells, could level out. VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a mainly positive picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$5.60 move, +/-1.5%, last Fri close 387.28, possible range of 382 to 393 for this week. Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 385 and under 390. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, give extended cautious picture, momentum is bull, ovi is positive. 380 21ma, 373 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 370, now again above the upper level. 8 ma has been good support level, it is at 379. Spy at resistance. HA daily candles last week red mon, green rest of week. MACD turning bull, STOCH is bull, RSI bull. VIX a positive, T/A extended and cautious, momentum positive, political, market drama, SPY could trade flat. Setting a SPY target of 388, a flat move. (target last week 368, from 370.07 previous close down trade, actual close was 387.28, above target, up move)