SPY preview Wk of 4/26/21, 5th wk option expiry for April/2021, fri 4/30. FOMC statement and presser on wed 4/28. State of the union speech on wed. Political, market drama, stock shorts and bond rout. Bond auction 20 year wed 4/21. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim bill rolling out the dollars, talk of infrastructure bill, tax hikes, inflation fears, hedge fund blow ups. Virus still major concern, new mutations showing up. More vaccines rolling out. Earnings in focus, TSLA,GE,MSFT,GOOGL,SBUX,V,BA,AAPL,FB,F,TDOC,MCD,RCL,MA,CAT,MO,AMZN,TWTR,X,MSTR. VIX start wk up mon, up tue, closed up for the wk, rose to 17 handle. VIX t/a tells, neutral. VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a calm picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$5.50 move, +/-1.30%, last fri close 416.74, possible range of 411 to 422 for this week. Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 400/410 and under 420. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, turning negative, still extended picture, momentum weak, ovi is positive. 407.3 21ma, 396 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 390, now out of the box, trading to new high. 8 ma has been support, it is at 415, SPY closed above mon, wed, fri. HA candles g,r,r,g,g. MACD turning bear, STOCH turning bear, RSI turn down, so momentum weakening. VIX calm, T/A weak, momentum weakening, SPY could trade flat to down. Setting a SPY target of 415, down move. (target last week 412, from 417.26 previous close, down trade, actual close was 416.74, above target)
income trades for 2021, using put credit spreads, Jan, 7 trades, 2 AAPL, all wins Feb, 6 trades, 4 AAPL, all wins Mar, 5 trades, 2 AAPL, all wins Apr, 6 trades, 4 AAPL, 5 wins so far, waiting for last trade to close
SPY preview Wk of 5/3/21, 1st wk option expiry for May/2021, fri 5/07. Media pushing sell in May talk, some pundits calling for 3 to 5 % drop. Powell talk on mon 5/3. NFP fri 5/7. New money usually comes into markets as a new month starts. Political, market drama, stock shorts and bond rout. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim bill rolling out the dollars, talk of infrastructure bill, tax hikes, inflation fears, hedge fund blow ups. Virus still major concern, new mutations showing up. More vaccines rolling out. Earnings in focus,GM,PYPL,AMC,NIC,PFE,RKT,UBER,W,MRNA,HLT,MOS,XLNX. VIX start wk up mon, closed up for the wk, rose to 18 handle. VIX t/a tells, point to slightly up for VIX. VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a mixed picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$5.40 move, +/-1.30%, last fri close 417.30, possible range of 412 to 423 for this week. Option volume, open interest looks to keep SPY over 400/410 and under 420. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, turning negative, still extended picture, momentum weak, ovi is positive. 413 21ma, 399 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 390, now out of the box, trading to new high. 8 ma has been support, it is at 417, SPY closed above all week. HA candles g,g,g,g,r. MACD turning bear, STOCH turning bear, RSI turn down, so momentum weakening. VIX mixed, T/A weak, momentum weakening, new money coming in, SPY could trade flat to down. Setting a SPY target of 416, down move. (target last week 415, from 416.74 previous close, down trade, actual close was 417.30, above target)
SPY preview Wk of 5/10/21, 2nd wk option expiry for May/2021, fri 5/17. Last week tue Yellen made comments on inflation, upset market, spent rest of day and the week back tracking. Media pushing sell in May talk, some pundits calling for 3 to 5 % drop. FED talkers this week on tue, wed, thu. 10 year bond auction wed. CPI wed. Retail Sales numbers on fri. Political, market drama, stock shorts and bond rout. World events getting dangerous, media avoiding. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim bill rolling out the dollars, talk of infrastructure bill, tax hikes, inflation fears, hedge fund blow ups. Virus still major concern, new mutations showing up. More vaccines rolling out. Earnings in focus,DUK,MAR,IFF,TTD,TSN,OXY,J,NVAX,TLRY,SPCE,RIOT,PLTR,WEN,JACK,BOOT,BABA,DIS,COIN,MARA. VIX had spiky up days tue, wed, closed wk down, back to 16 handle. VIX t/a tells, neutral for VIX. VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a positive picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$4.90 move, +/-1.16%, last fri close 422.12, possible range of 417 to 427 for this week. Lot of SPY put volume and open interest from 422 down to 395, is that protection buying? Call volume, open interest all over the place also, hard to get a picture of where option volume, open interest want to keep SPY over and under. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, turning positive, momentum positive, market extended, ovi is positive. 416 21ma, 402 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 390, now out of the box, trading to new high. 8 ma has been support, it is at 418, SPY closed below tue,wed, finished week above. HA candles g,r,r,g,g. MACD turning bull, STOCH bull, RSI bull, so momentum positive. VIX positive, T/A positve, momentum positive, market extended, SPY could trade up. Not setting a SPY target, market outlook is not very clear, some correction could take place. (target last week 416, from 417.30 previous close, down trade, actual close was 422.12, above target)
SPY preview Wk of 5/17/21, 3rd wk, monthly option expiry for May/2021, fri 5/21. Media pushing sell in May talk, some pundits calling for 3 to 5 % drop. FED talkers on mon, tue, wed. FOMC minutes release on wed. Political, market drama, stock shorts and bond rout. World events getting dangerous, media avoiding. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim bill rolling out the dollars, talk of infrastructure bill, tax hikes, inflation fears, hedge fund blow ups. Virus still major concern, new mutations showing up. More vaccines rolling out. Earnings in focus,WMT,HD,JD,LOW,CSCO,L,TGT. VIX had spiky up days mon, tue, wed, pull back thu, fri, up for the wk. VIX t/a tells, unclear for VIX. VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a unclear picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$6.60 move, +/-1.58%, last fri close 416.58, possible range of 410 to 423 for this week. Lot of SPY put volume and open interest from 420 down to 390, is that more protection buying? Call volume, open interest all over the place also, hard to get a picture of where option volume, open interest want to keep SPY over and under. 2nd week in a row now for this unclear picture. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, turning positive, momentum negative, market extended, ovi is weak. 416 21ma, 405 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 390, now out of the box, trading to new high. 8 ma has been support, it is at 415, SPY closed below mon,tue,wed,thu, fri closed above. HA candles g,r,r,r,g. MACD bear, STOCH just turn bull, RSI bear, so momentum net negative. VIX unclear, T/A positve, momentum negative, market extended, SPY could trade flat/down. Not setting a SPY target, market outlook is not very clear, some correction could take place. (no target last week, from 422.12 previous close, actual close was 416.58, 5.54 drop, -1.3%)
SPY preview Wk of 5/24/21, 4th wk option expiry for May/2021, fri 5/28. Media pushing stock bubble talk, some pundits calling for 10% drop. FED talkers on mon, tue, wed. Some FED members thinking taper time. Prelim GDP number on thu. Political, market drama, stock shorts and bond rout. World events getting dangerous, media avoiding. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim bill rolling out the dollars, talk of infrastructure bill, tax hikes, inflation fears, hedge fund blow ups. Virus still major concern, new mutations showing up. More vaccines rolling out. Earnings in focus,NVDA,COST,ULTA. VIX up mon, tue, wed, pull back thu, fri, up for the wk. VIX t/a tells, could send VIX higher. VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a mixed picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$6.70 move, +/-1.6%, last fri close 414.94, possible range of 408 to 422 for this week. Lot of SPY put volume and open interest from 418 down to 380, is that more protection, hedge buying? Call volume, open interest all over the place also, hard to get a picture of where option volume, open interest want to keep SPY over and under, but 410 to 420 looks possible. 3rd week in a row now for this unclear picture. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, mainly negattive, momentum negative, market extended, ovi is flat. 415.7 21ma, 408 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 390, now out of the box, trading to new high. 8 ma has been support, it is at 412.6, SPY closed below mon,tue,wed,thu, fri closed above. HA candles g,r,r,g,g. MACD bear, STOCH just turn bull, RSI bear, so momentum net negative. VIX mixed, T/A negatve, momentum negative, market extended, SPY could trade flat/down. SPY target 415, flat move, choppy market trying to find direction. (no target last week, from 416.58 previous close, actual close was 414.94, 1.64 drop, -0.4%)
SPY preview Wk of 5/31/21, 1st wk option expiry for June/2021, fri 6/4. US markets closed mon 5/31 for Memorial Day Holiday. Media pushing stock bubble talk, some pundits calling for 10% or more drop. FED talkers on tue, wed, thu, Powell on fri. Some FED members thinking taper time. NFP fri. Political, market drama, stock shorts and bond rout. World events getting dangerous, media avoiding. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim bill rolling out the dollars, talk of infrastructure bill, tax hikes, inflation fears, hedge fund blow ups. Virus still major concern, new mutations showing up. More vaccines rolling out. Earnings in focus, DOKU,ZM. VIX down mon, and rest of week, down for the wk. VIX t/a tells, could send VIX higher. VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a mixed picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$4.00 move, +/-1.0%, last fri close 420.04, possible range of 408 to 422 for this week. Lot of SPY put volume and open interest from 421 down to 380, is that more protection, hedge buying? Call volume, open interest all over the place also, hard to get a picture of where option volume, open interest want to keep SPY over and under. 4th week in a row now for this unclear picture from options market. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, slightly negative, momentum positive, ovi is small positive. 416 21ma, 410.5 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 390, now out of the box, trading to new high. 8 ma has been support, it is at 417, SPY closed above all week. HA candles g,r,r,g,g. MACD bull, STOCH bull, RSI bull, so momentum positive. VIX mixed, T/A slightly negatve, momentum positive, market getting extended, SPY could trade flat/down. SPY target 420, flat move. (415 was target last week, from 414.94 previous close, actual close was 420.04, 5.1 gain, +1.22%)
SPY preview Wk of 6/7/21, 2nd wk option expiry for June/2021, fri 6/11. Media pushing inflation fears, stock bubble talk, some pundits calling for 10% or more drop. Dont see any FED talkers. Some FED members thinking taper time. 30 year bond auction thu. Political, market drama, stock shorts and bond rout. World events getting dangerous, media avoiding. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim bill rolling out the dollars, talk of infrastructure bill, tax hikes, inflation fears, hedge fund blow ups. Virus still major concern, new mutations showing up. More vaccines rolling out. Earnings in focus, ASO,GME,SIG,CHWY. VIX up tue, hi on thu, down fri, down slightly for the wk. VIX t/a tells, could send VIX higher. VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a mixed picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$4.50 move, +/-1.1%, last fri close 422.60, possible range of 418 to 427 for this week. Lot of SPY put volume and open interest from 420 down to 340, is that more protection, hedge buying? Call volume, open interest all over the place also, hard to get a picture of where option volume, open interest want to keep SPY over and under. 5th week in a row now for this unclear picture from options market. But 415 to 430 looks possible. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, slightly positive, momentum positive, ovi is small positive. 417 21ma, 413 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 390, now out of the box, trading to new high. 8 ma has been support, it is at 420, SPY closed above tue, wed, below thu, above fri. HA candles g,r,r,g. MACD bull, STOCH bull, RSI bull, so momentum positive. VIX mixed, T/A slightly positive, momentum positive, market getting extended, SPY could trade up. SPY target 425, up move. (420 was target last week, from 420.04 previous close, actual close was 422.60, 2.2 gain, +0.5%)
SPY preview Wk of 6/14/21, 3rd wk and monthly and quads option expiry for June/2021, fri 6/18. Media pushing inflation fears, stock bubble talk, some pundits calling for 10% or more drop. Some FED members thinking taper time. FOMC meeting tue, wed with a press conference. Political, market drama, stock shorts and bond rout. World events getting dangerous, media avoiding. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim trying to rolling out more dollars, talk of infrastructure bill, tax hikes, inflation fears, hedge fund blow ups. Virus still major concern, new mutations showing up. More vaccines rolling out. Earnings in focus, ORCL. VIX flat mon, up tue,wed, down thu,fri, down for the wk. Now 15 handle. VIX t/a tells, could send VIX higher. VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a mixed picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$5.20 move, +/-1.25%, last fri close 424.31, possible range of 419 to 430 for this week. Lot of SPY put volume and open interest from 420 down to 340, is that more protection, hedge buying? Call volume, open interest all over the place also, hard to get a picture of where option volume, open interest want to keep SPY over and under. 6th week in a row now for this unclear picture from options market. But 420 to 430 looks possible. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, slightly positive, momentum positive, ovi is positive. 418.4 21ma, 416 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 390, now out of the box, trading to new high. 8 ma has been support, it is at 422, SPY closed above all week. HA candles green all week. MACD bull, STOCH bull, RSI bull, so momentum positive. VIX mixed, T/A slightly positive, momentum positive, market getting extended, SPY could trade up. SPY target 425, flat move. (425 was target last week, from 422.60 previous close, actual close was 424.31, 1.71 gain, +0.4%)
SPY preview Wk of 6/21/21, 4th wk and final option expiry for June/2021, fri 6/25. Media pushing inflation fears, stock bubble talk, some pundits calling for 10% or more drop. Some FED members thinking taper time. FED talkers m,t,w,th. Powell testimony on tue to house Subcommittee. Political, market drama, stock shorts and bond rout. World events getting dangerous, media avoiding. FED acts are supports for markets, fiscal stim trying to rolling out more dollars, talk of infrastructure bill, tax hikes, inflation fears, hedge fund blow ups. Virus still major concern, new mutations showing up. More vaccines rolling out. Earnings in focus, PLUG,KBH,RAD,ACN,KMX,BB,NKE,FDX. VIX up mon,tue,wed, down thu,up fri, up for the wk. Now 20 handle. VIX t/a tells, could send VIX higher. VIX term curve positive for markets. So VIX giving a mixed picture for its effect on the market. Options pricing +/-$7.70 move, +/-1.90%, last fri close 414.92, possible range of 407 to 423 for this week. Lot of SPY put volume and open interest at the near the money strikes, is that more protection, hedge buying? Call volume, open interest at just out of the money, hard to get a picture of where option volume, open interest want to keep SPY over and under. 7th week in a row now for this unclear picture from options market. But 415 to 417 looks possible. Near term T/A, candles, gaps, volume, negative, momentum negative, ovi turned negative. 419 21ma, 416 50ma. SPY has been in a box, 320 to 390, now out of the box, trading off the new high. 8 ma has been support, it is at 421, SPY closed above mon, tue, then below rest of week. HA candles g,g,r,r,r. MACD bear, STOCH bear, RSI bear, momentum very negative. VIX mixed, T/A negative, momentum negative, market extended to downside, SPY could trade flat to small up. SPY target 415, flat move. (425 was target last week, from 424.31 previous close, actual close was 414.92, 9.39 loss, -2.2%)