In light of the above forecast model, and given that I've fully completed the development of my system for trading foreign currency pairs (which I call Numerical Price Prediction, or NPP) I'm going to start (for the time being, at least) giving the U.S. indices a greater amount of similar attention. I'm beginning by coding an adaptive weekly price range envelope for the NAS100 (seeing as how my plan is to enter a long position the next time this index comes out of a retreat)... However, given all the cautionary warnings of folks like AJ Monte, I plan to pocket gains (if there are any) as soon as my measures tell me that the next leg of any subsequent surge has come to an end. (I'm going to elect NOT to hold through the pullbacks.) At the moment, it appears this asset has lost much (if not all) of its momentum over the last three weeks.
Today I heard that the S&P 500 was declared to be in a bull market not too long ago. However, my numbers characterized the major indices as such about seven weeks prior:
I've finished writing my book explaining how to use Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) to trade foreign currency pairs and now only need to go back and make sure the last part (on how to conduct day trading, and a few other details) is as coherent and as well-organized as I can manage. Having finished recapping what the last six years has wrought, today I turned my attention back to the USA indices. Because all my measures are temporal in nature, they remain the same in both contexts, but the settings/parameters have to be customized in certain respects...one being how to highlight possible runs in the daily trend...sort of. I say "sort of" because while the stochastic oscillator is still applied in the same manner, there is an additional (proprietary) indicator that points to runs of a different species, ones that are more "solid." (But again, not exactly, because there IS a lot of overlap.) There is a high probability that an index has initiated a bullish run when the oscillator climbs above the lower-panel central channel (the green line), which is usually over when the line begins to lose ground; and a bearish run when the line crawls below the central channel (the red line), which is typically over when the line begins to regain altitude. Unfortunately, this measure is flawed in that the correlation between the slope of the oscillator and the direction of price movement is significantly less than 100%, so it is extremely important to pay attention to the actual maneuvers being made by price as well as the information provided by the other indicators on the chart (which have been omitted on the following diagram).
@expiated Just seen your thread/journal for the first time. yes, such fellers full of negativity should be ignored
So, here is what I've settled into trading USA indices via MT4... First of all, I am day trading using one-minute charts rather than doing any kind of long-term trading using weekly charts. I'm looking to enter following pullbacks in the 8½-minute price range envelope at 0.06% deviation (and to a lesser extent, the 13-minute price range envelope at 0.07% deviation) as defined by the two-minute price flow channel at 0.02% deviation and the 4½-minute baseline. I am almost always trading in the direction suggested by the slopes of the 27-minute baseline, the 40-minute price flow "cloud" at 0.04% deviation, and the 90-minute price range envelope(s) at 0.07%, 0.19%, 0.35% and 0.55% deviation. That's it. That's all there is to it. (Seems pretty simple, but simple is good, for me at least.)
As of today, I'm feeling pretty satisfied with the “forecast models” I'm using to day trade foreign currency pairs, so I've come back to this thread I created three years ago to pick up where I left off. My plan is to switch from a trade size of 0.05 lots to 1.0 lots starting next week, so that my daily take will be more along the lines of $235.40 instead of a mere $11.77—and to then continue growing the account from there (exponentially?) as I become more accustomed to applying the culminating iteration of my "Numerical Price Prediction Low-risk High-probability Decision-making Protocol Suite" to Forex trading, God willing. Hopefully, it will be just as profitable when applied to the major U.S. indices. And seeing is how I had to open a Kraken account in preparation for forwarding his share of the profits to my partner in India, maybe I'll even look into using the suite to trade cryptocurrencies as well.